Regan's Rumblings: (Very) Early Observations

Pretty much any article written about what has happened in the first few days of 2017 will come with the "it's a marathon not a sprint" type of disclaimer, but there are some things we can take away from the first set of games. Things we thought we knew, such as closer situations, were confirmed. Lineup placement is important, and I'll tough on a handful of those situations as well.

Dallas Keuchel (SP-HOU)

A year after being named the 2015 AL Cy Young award winner, Keuchel saw his ERA spike from 2.48 to 4.55, with shoulder issues limiting him to 168 innings and likely impacting his success during his 26 starts. Keuchel still did post a 7.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/98 last season, but the H/9 rate jumped from 7.2 to 9.0 as more of his upper-80s fastballs caught bigger portions of the plate. This is a big year for Keuchel, as the Astros are counting on him to lead them to the playoffs. This is why his excellent Opening Day (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) is so important. Keuchel certainly didn't cost fantasy owners as much this spring as last (ADP of 144), and it looks like that will be a bargain if of course his Opening Day performance carries over to his upcoming starts.

Blake Treinen (RP-WAS)

I was able to catch the end of this game, and I came away thinking Dusty Baker made the right choice by going with Treinen over Koda Glover and others for his closer. Treinen averaged 97.5 mph with his fastball, and after falling behind Justin Bour 3-0, Treinen rallied to strike Bour out on a nasty 89 mph slider. This didn't exactly come out of nowhere, as Treinen posted a 2.28 ERA in 67 innings last year, with an 8.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. The walk rate jumps out as not exactly closer-worthy, and it looms as something that could potentially lead to a change in role at some point.

Jeanmar Gomez (RP-PHI)

Try as he might, Gomez couldn't quite blow the save on Opening Day, as he allowed a pair of runs before locking down the save in a 4-3 Phillies win. Scooter Gennett took Gomez deep for a two-run home run. Gomez was on shaky ground already after finishing with a 4.85 ERA and 37 saves last year, but he did have a very nice spring (0.84 ERA), so he'll get at least another chance or two. Manager Pete Mackanin did say after the game that he was "concerned" about his closer position and that Gomez was the closer "for right now", so he's on the hot seat for sure. Should a change be made, Hector Neris appears poised to take over given he pitched the eighth inning Monday while Joaquin Benoit pitched the sixth and Edubay Ramos the seventh. Neris should be picked up in all leagues and has the upside of a top-10 closer given last year's 102 strikeouts (11.4 K/9).

Miguel Sano (3B-MIN)

Sano couldn't have asked for a better debut. In four plate appearances, he homered, drew a bases-loaded walk, and did not strike out. Given that he fanned a whopping 36% of the time in 2016, that's notable. We know the power will be there in the 30+ HR range, but if he can get that strikeout rate under 30%, perhaps Sano can hit in the .260 range, which would be huge for his fantasy value. He's always struck out a lot, but Sano also adds value with a 12.9% BB%, making him a borderline "Three True Outcomes" guy. Sano hit just .200 this spring with 22 strikeouts in 50 at-bats, so it's highly unlikely the whiffs are going to come down dramatically, but is a 30% K% too much to hope for?

Adam Frazier (UT-PIT)

The man without a position, the Pirates took advantage of interleague play by starting Frazier in left field and pushing Gregory Polanco (minor shoulder issues) to DH. Frazier even hit leadoff, so it's clear the Pirates have a lot of confidence in him. He went 1-for-3 with a walk on Opening Day after notching a team-leading 25 hits this spring that translated into a .403/.417/.645 slash with an impressive 5:7 K:BB. Assuming everyone is healthy, Frazier will soon be relegated to fourth outfielder, backup infielder, and pinch-hitter status, seemingly making 300 at-bats his ceiling. Frazier doesn't have a lot of power, but given regular playing time, he could hit .300 with 20+ steals. Unfortunately Frazier played just 17 games at second base last year, so he won't qualify as anything other than an outfielder in many leagues, but depending on your league settings, he could be worth a roster spot at some point.

Chris Archer (SP-TB)

Only Max Scherzer (560) and Chris Sale (507) have more than the 485 strikeouts recorded by both Archer and Madison Bumgarner the past two seasons. Yet, while Scherzer, Sale, and Bumgarner are true ace #1 starters by any measure, Archer has been maddeningly inconsistent. Archer finished with a 4.02 ERA last season, and allowed no runs in just four of his 33 starts. With his stuff, he should be more dominant, but Archer's HR/9 spiked from 0.81 to 1.34, and while a 3.0 BB/9 isn't bad, it certainly isn't at the level of some other #1 starters. Archer avoided the home run ball against the Yankees on Sunday, allowing two runs in seven solid innings with one walk and five strikeouts to notch his first win of the year. We have Archer ranked #12 among starting pitchers based on the strikeouts, and also in large part due to a second half last year in which he posted a 3.25 ERA and impressive 103:19 K:BB in 91.1 innings.

Mark Melancon (RP-SF)

New year, same issues for the Giants, who saw their bullpen implode at the end of last year, culminating in a playoff exit against the Cubs in the NLDS. Gone are Santiago Casilla (A's), Sergio Romo (Dodgers), and Javier Lopez (retirement). In at closer via a four-year $62 million deal is Melancon, who has notched 70+ innings in each of the last four years, posting a 2.23 ERA or less each season, and had a combined 98 saves over the past two seasons. So of course Melancon goes out and gets the dreaded "BS, L" in his Giants debut, allowing four hits and two runs in a walk-off loss to the Diamondbacks. I've already heard some people picking up Hunter Strickland, but that's just nuts. Melancon for his career sports an 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, so he'll bounce back in no time.

Kendall Graveman (SP-OAK)

Graveman wasn't the best starter to pitch on Opening Day by any means, but he was fortunate enough to face Mike Trout and his mediocre supporting cast. Graveman picked up the win with six innings of two-run ball, walking two and striking out seven. The only two runs of course came on a two-run homer by — you guessed it — Mike Trout, but otherwise the strikeouts were quite nice to see. Graveman posted a subpar 5.2 K/9 to go with an excellent 2.3 BB/9 last year, so he certainly has room for improvement in missing bats. After averaging a solid 92.7 mph with his fastball last year, Graveman was clocked at 94.6 mph on average on Opening Day, which is quite surprising. I haven't done any studies around this, but I do wonder if there's an element of "Opening Day adrenaline" at play here, but it's a good sign nonetheless.

Greg Holland (RP-COL)

There was never a formal team announcement that Holland would be the closer, though we did start hearing from team beat writers late last month that he likely would be the guy. Still, it was good to see the confirmation come quickly Monday, as Holland recorded his first save since 2015. Adam Ottavino pitched the eighth and would be the guy should Holland falter, but the pecking order for now is clear. It wasn't a completely clean outing, as Holland walked one batter, didn't record a strikeout, and was saved on a spectacular double play initiated by Nolan Arenado. Still, Holland did average 94.7 mph with his fastball, but I didn't see his signature slider. Give it time and Holland could certainly make it all the way back, but I'd still roster Ottavino in deeper leagues.

Khris Davis (OF-OAK)

Davis broke out with a 42-home run season in 2016, though with a 27.2% K%, he was limited to a .247 batting average. I thought that could result in a bit of a drop-off this year, so of course Davis went out and hit a pair of home runs on Opening Day along with a single and zero strikeouts. Davis had me a bit concerned when he failed to hit a home run this spring, but this is just another reminder as to why Spring Training stats are just one small data point in the bigger picture of predictive analysis. One might think that given an inflated 26.6% HR/FB ratio last year, that Davis' power may regress, but his career rate is also well above league average at 22.6%, so another 35-45 homers this year seems very reasonable. Look for the Khris Davis trade rumors to start flying come July.

Carlos Gomez (OF-TEX)

I don't want to overreact to one home run, but Gomez absolutely crushed a Corey Kluber pitch on Monday. Gomez also walked and was caught stealing in this one, finishing 1-for-4 with a .400 OBP as the Rangers' Opening Day leadoff man. Gomez had a monster spring, batting .359/.404/.744 and he was similarly elite after coming over to the Rangers last season (.284/.363/.543). At one point in his career, Gomez appeared headed toward multiple 30/30 seasons before falling off dramatically in 2014, but if he can stick in the leadoff spot, 20/20 is certainly possible, along with 100+ runs scored.

Adam Eaton (OF-WAS)

I was a bit worried about Eaton when I saw him hitting sixth near the end of Spring Training, but he's now slotted quite nicely between Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, which isn't a bad spot. Eaton was on base three times on Opening Day, notching a pair of walks and pulling off a nice double-steal with Turner. Given his OBP ability and Harper's plate discipline, Eaton should be able to top 20 steals for the first time in his career. The Red Sox have a nice 1-4 in their lineup, but when you add Daniel Murphy batting cleanup, Washington's 1-4 may be baseball's best.

Andrew Benintendi (OF-BOS)

I have minimal shares of Benintendi, as I didn't quite buy into the hype train as much as others. My real question wasn't whether he could get hits and get on base — he will. It was his power upside, as Benintendi stands just 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-10 (depending where you look), and in 536 plate appearances spread across four levels last year, the ROY frontrunner had a modest 11 home runs. So of course he goes out on Opening Day and hits a three-run homer off a 98 mph Gerrit Cole fastball. Back in Tiger Woods' heyday, the popular question when it came to Majors was whether you would take Tiger or the field to win? Now, would you take Benintendi or the field for AL ROY? I'd be tempted to lean Benintendi, as while the NL has a lot of quality rookies, the AL is a bit thin. Sure, Yoan Moncada could come up in May and make his case and Benintendi could have trouble adjusting once pitchers figure him out, but hitting second ahead of Mookie Betts should help Benintendi win the award.

Andrew Toles (OF-LAD)

Toles looks to be the left fielder and leadoff man versus RHP, though it seems he'll sit in favor of Franklin Gutierrez against southpaws. Still, in the leadoff spot, that could mean 500+ at-bats for Toles, who will need to fare well to hold off Andre Ethier (back) once Ethier is deemed healthy. Toles hit his way from High-A to the big leagues last year, batting .314/.365/.505 in 115 plate appearances with the Dodgers. Toles batted just .213/.229/.277 in 47 at-bats in September, but that was with very irregular playing time. He did hit .364 in 22 playoff at-bats, and it will be quite interesting to see how he does with semi-regular playing time.