Yahoo DFS Baseball: Thursday Picks

Yahoo DFS Baseball: Thursday Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.

PITCHER

Brandon McCarthy, LAD vs. SD ($31): The first thing I do when searching for pitchers is check the odds. Obviously, the teams with better odds are more likely to pick up wins, as is that team's starting pitcher. The Dodgers are the only team on the board with odds higher than -200 and McCarthy is toeing the rubber, so you can see where I am going here. There's more to this pick than a likely win, though. McCarthy is going to give up his fair share of runs, but usually posts a good amount of strikeouts. The Padres just happened to have had the second-highest K-rate against righties last year. The strikeouts are almost guaranteed, and a win is likely; so what if he gives up a few runs?

Matt Harvey, NYM vs. ATL ($40): Even after his worst season in the bigs Harvey is still priced at a premium, and while I don't like paying up for a guy that struggled last year, I do like this matchup. The Braves were awful against righties last season and through two games this year, that trend has continued. It remains to be seen if Harvey's 2016 season was the exception or the new rule, but either way, he should have little trouble racking up points against a punchless Atlanta offense.

CATCHER

Buster Posey, SF at AZ ($16): Another day, another juicy matchup for the right-handed hitters in the Giants lineup. Robbie Ray's splits against righties are just plain awful. Ray's wOBA against righties last season came in at a hefty .343 and while the Giants as a whole weren't great against lefties, Posey was. He finished in the top 50 in wOBA against lefties last season (highest on the team) and when combined with Ray's struggles against righties, you can see why he's on this list.

FIRST BASE

Miguel Cabrera, DET at CHW ($23): There are times to get fancy and try to find a sleeper, but this is not one of those times. While batter versus pitcher numbers are generally not reliable, in this case, these two have faced each other enough to make the stats valid. Cabrera has a lifetime wOBA of .462 against James Shields in 72 plate appearances. While Cabrera isn't quite the player he was a few years ago, Shields is a shell of his former self and is now vulnerable to just about everybody in the lineup, creating more opportunities for Miggy's hits to turn into runs and RBI.

SECOND BASE

Ian Kinsler, DET at CHW ($20): While the case for Cabrera is based mostly on his numbers, the case for Kinsler (and just about every other Tiger for that matter) is the futility of Shields. The veteran right-hander was equally bad against lefties and righties last season, and the key word there is bad. Shields posted a 6.39 ERA in the second half of the season last year and at 35 years old, he's not likely to regain his form of a decade ago. Kinsler continues to rake and although he was better against lefties last season, he still posted a solid .348 wOBA against righties.

THIRD BASE

Nolan Arenado, COL at MIL ($23): Nolan Arenado should be licking his chops as he steps into the batter's box today. He's facing Chase Anderson, who has a heck of a time getting right-handed hitters out. Last season, righties posted a wOBA of .394 against Anderson, which is off the charts, figuratively speaking. As for Arenado, he was actually better against righties than lefties last season. His wOBA of .395 versus right-handed pitchers ranked in the top 20 in MLB.

SHORTSTOP

Tim Anderson, CHW vs. DET ($16): Anderson was one of a handful of breakout players last season and while we don't know yet if the contract he signed a couple of weeks ago was justified, there is one thing we do know: he hits lefties better than righties, as proven by his wOBA of .342 against them last year (versus a wOBA of .308 against righties). We also know that the opposing pitcher, Matt Boyd, struggled to get righties out, allowing a wOBA of .341 against them last season.

OUTFIELD

Andrew Benintendi, BOS vs. PIT ($16): Benintendi's lefty versus righty splits last year were heavily tiled towards righties, and while that was partially because of his putrid numbers versus lefties, he did post a solid .323 wOBA against RHP and he already has a home run off of a righty this season. Squaring off Benintendi is Chad Kuhl, a right-hander who struggled to get lefties out last season. Kuhl's xFIP was nearly one full run higher against lefties than righties in 2016. The story of this series so far has been Pittsburgh sending righties to the mound and the Red Sox failing to really pound them, but it's only a matter of time.

Marcell Ozuna, MIA at WAS ($13): Ozuna is a guy who should fly under the radar. Gio Gonzalez takes the hill for Washington and while Gonzalez is a good pitcher, he's not elite. He's also feast or famine against righties, as his K rate is higher against them (23.1 percent in 2016) but his HR/FB rate (14.0 percent) is higher as well. Ozuna isn't going to contend for the home run title this season, but he has enough pop to take advantage of a good situation. Last season, he posted a wOBA of .384 against lefties.

Hunter Pence, SF at AZ ($14): At this price, Pence feels like quite the bargain. He has been the benefactor of some nice matchups early this season and this one is no exception. As mentioned above, Ray struggles to get righties out and Pence pounds lefties. Well, he pounds lefties and righties, almost equally last year, but considering Ray's struggles against righties, it's definitely an advantage for Pence in this one.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Greg Vara plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: lennykarl1, DraftKings: lennykarl1.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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