Oak's Corner: First Week Review

It sure is nice to finally have some real games to watch. With the longer spring training due to the World Baseball Classic, there were times in March that it felt like the season would never get here. By now, we've finished our drafts and know who we're most interested in watching and rooting for as the season progresses. I drafted in the NFBC Main Event in Las Vegas on Saturday and it was a fantastic time as always. It's good to see old friends, and meet new ones, who share my love of fantasy baseball. My particular draft was tough as almost all the mid-range starting pitchers were aggressively pushed up making it tough to acquire any sort of pitching depth. I liked what I ended up with, but as with any deep and competitive draft, I left the table with some clear items to work on.

Now that the season is here, we'll jump into a more standard format for the column where I'll start by looking at some interesting players and events from the week. I'll also take a look at the current state of closing situations and highlight one weekend series that's especially interesting for fantasy purposes. Starting next week when we have some more stats to look through and games to watch, I will also point out a couple guys each week to keep in mind for the upcoming FAAB bidding.

The Week That Was

• Yasiel Puig was a consensus second round pick in 15-team drafts in 2015 and disappointed with an injury-riddled season where he hit .255 with 11 homers. He slipped a bit in 2016 drafts to the fifth or sixth round, but disappointed again with another shortened season in which he hit .263 with 11 homers. In 2017 drafts, he finally became an afterthought, going in the back half of almost every draft. In Puig's four seasons in MLB, he has yet to top 20 homers despite a body and a swing that scream power to any eye test. Well, Puig has started red hot in 2017, smoking three homers in his first 16 at-bats, although it has to be noted that two of those came at the expense of Jered Weaver. Puig has shown a high upside in the past, but it was way back in 2013 when he hit .319 with 19 homers over only 104 games, all supported with a strong 37.5% hit rate. As I looked closely at Puig in the preseason, I was surprised that he's only 26 as it feels like he's been around so much longer. He's hitting as low as eighth in the Dodgers order against righties to start the season, although I assume that will change quickly if he stays hot. I wouldn't rush to trade Puig on the new increased value, but I'm also not looking to search out a trade for him as I'm still cautious. He's currently a solid hold, and I'll watch a few more weeks before I move from that evaluation.

• We have talked about Byron Buxton at length already in this column, and the first series of the year was an especially ugly one. Buxton was 1-for-15 in the Twins sweep of the Royals and that one hit was a 55 foot dribbler that he beat out for an infield single. Most concerning in the 15 at-bats are his seven strikeouts. The strikeouts have been his profile's biggest issue, even when he's hitting well and even in the minor leagues. I'm seen a number of comments about people calling him a bust and wanting to get rid of him already, but as much as I hated his draft price this season, that is simply crazy talk. Baseball is a long season and things gets magnified at the start of the year because we're so hungry for stats and results, that we put a high value on something that we wouldn't notice if it happened in a series in July. Put simply, don't drop Buxton and don't trade him for 50 cents on the dollar either. The strikeouts and BA are going to be an issue, but he is hitting third in the Twins order (well, for now) and is going to hit for some power and steal some bases. Minnesota is cold in April and oftentimes, offense can be hard to come by. I'd give Buxton at least a month in your lineup before I'd consider benching or trading him. You drafted him for a reason, don't let one ugly series cause you to alter course.

• Matt Harvey looked fantastic on Thursday in his first start since July 2016 when he underwent surgery to treat Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. I wasn't all that interested in the actual pitching line (although it was very good) but rather his velocity readings and his command. He was sitting 94-95 throughout most of the start and I noticed him hitting 94 multiples times in the seventh inning, so he wasn't noticeably tiring late. Most impressively, Harvey threw 55 of his 77 pitches for strikes and was extremely efficient with his pitch count all night. Who knows how the next few starts look, but I was pleasantly surprised by the outing and might be regretting not grabbing him at his discounted 11th-round price.

• I love watching Marcus Stroman pitch. I know that we can't fall in love with the eye test, but I love the fire he shows on the mound and it feels like he's always battling. He pitched well in his 2017 debut on Thursday. His most impressive stat from his start was that out of the 19 outs he recorded, 17 of those were via strikeout or ground ball. It's hard to surrender too many homers when you give up two fly balls all night. I have many shares of Stroman and I'm keeping them.

• The most impressive pitching stat line of the young season was put together on Wednesday night by Cincinnati Red Brandon Finnegan. He allowed only one hit and one walk over seven innings while striking out nine Phillies. Finnegan's overall line in 2016 wasn't pretty, but something clicked for the southpaw in the second half as he bumped his strikeout rate to over one per inning while posting a 2.93 ERA. The former 17th overall pick has some issues with hard hit rate and giving up home runs, but I'll be watching him closely over his next few starts to see if he figured something out late in the year. Cincinnati pitchers scare me in that ballpark, but I'm certainly intrigued by Finnegan. If he's on your waiver wire in a 10 or 12-team league, I'd definitely bid on him this week, with his two scheduled starts on the ledger next week.

• It's too early to regret grabbing someone, but after watching Dylan Bundy pitch Wednesday against Toronto, I feel like I'm missing the boat by not having any shares of him. Bundy struck out eight Jays over seven innings as he threw fewer fastballs than usual while mixing in more cutters. Bundy clearly has the stuff to succeed, but I was more impressed by his pitch mix, and if he's matured in that aspect of his game, the sky could be the limit for Bundy, as soon as this year. If he's available in a shallower league in your FAAB this weekend, he is a must bid.

• No MLB, no matter how many times you tweet about it, I still don't care about Tim Tebow the baseball player. How about we save those tweets to promote the crazy amount of young and exciting talent already in the majors.
  

Closing Time

Colorado: This situation was a bit murky even late in the spring, but usage in the first week makes it crystal clear that Greg Holland is the choice for the ninth inning. He locked down three saves in the Rockies four-game set in Milwaukee while allowing no runs and no hits over three innings. They have a strong closer-in-waiting in Adam Ottavino, but have used him strictly in a setup role in their three wins as manager Bud Black established his bullpen hierarchy. The Rockies likely won't push Holland too hard early in the season, but if the leash was short entering the season, it's longer now with such a solid first week.

Oakland: On the other end of the spectrum from Denver is the muddled situation in Oakland. During the A's opening night game, there was a buzz from beat writers that the A's were concerned about Ryan Madson's numbers against the AL West and that he might not be used as a closer in those games. It doesn't make a lot of sense that the A's would rely on such a small 2016 sample size, and while Madson didn't close any games this week, he did face the middle of the Angels in the 8th inning in the first two games. I find it hard to believe that the A's would be unwilling to trust him in the ninth, but then let him face Mike Trout in back-to-back games with the game on the line. The ESPN announcers commented that Madson has indicated that he actually prefers to pitch the eighth, but it seemed like speculation on their part.

On the first night, Santiago Casilla closed and converted the save, but had some control issues. In game two, Melvin turned to Ryan Dull, who surrendered a game-winning three-run to Danny Espinosa on an 0-2 slider. Casilla missed a full three weeks of spring action with visa issues and had leg tightness later in the spring, so it appears that he wasn't ready for back-to-back games. So the A's look like a full blown committee situation right now and likely one to avoid, but watch to see if anyone breaks out with two or three saves, as then it may be the time to jump. If I had to pick someone right now for saves, it would be Casilla, but I still like Sean Doolittle the most of the back-end bullpen arms in Oakland for the long-term.

Texas: Oh, what a difference one series can make at the closer position. Sam Dyson was the clear closer coming into the year, but that role is definitely shakier after back-to-back brutal outings against the Indians. Dyson came into a tie game on Monday and allowed three earned runs on four hits to take the loss. He then entered with a two-run lead on Wednesday and had a complete meltdown, allowing two singles to start the inning followed by back-to-back to walks after retiring Yan Gomes (of course). With one out and still nursing a one-run lead, he gave up a grand slam to Francisco Lindor to cap off the destruction. All of that work across two games adds up to seven hits, two walks and eight earned runs allowed in one inning.

Manager Jeff Banister gave Dyson a vote of confidence after the game and indicated that he wasn't going to "jump ship" after just two games. One thing working against Dyson is that the Rangers do have two strong options to turn to in the ninth if they wanted to make a change. Jeremy Jeffress saved 27 games for the Brewers in 2016 before getting dealt to Texas at the trade deadline, posting a combined 2.33 ERA on the season. His K Rate dropped to 6.5 K/9 in 2016, but he limited hard contact exceptionally well at only 17.5%. He was effective at limiting damage, only allowing multiple runs in an outing three times in the entire season.

The sexier option in the Rangers pen is Matt Bush. The Padres first overall 2004 pick resurfaced as a flame-throwing bullpen option for the Rangers in 2016, averaging 97 mph on his fastball while compiling a 2.48 ERA over 61.2 innings. Bush struck out guys to a nice rate of 8.9 K/9 while only walking 2.04 batters per nine. There has been talk that the Rangers may want to leave Bush in his current role, but I think if Bannister were to make a move, it would be to get Bush in that role and allow Dyson to use his extreme ground ball rate to induce double plays and get out of jams in the seventh and eighth inning. The vote of confidence for Dyson likely lowers the FAAB price over the weekend for Bush, but he should still be bid on in every league as the Rangers closer job is an appealing one if he were to get the call. I'll Watch Dyson closely over the weekend and adjust my bid based on how he looks (and in what role) in any outing he makes. I'd also toss a lower bid on Jeffress if you have an empty bench spot, as we never know exactly what a manager may do in replacing a guy. If you own Dyson and Bush is available, I think you have to go after him pretty aggressively as you don't want to risk losing the Rangers closer this early in the season.

Series of the Weekend

Cleveland Indians at Arizona Diamondbacks – Overall offense hasn't been especially high during the first week, but if you like offense, this should be the series for you. The defending AL Champs head to the desert to play the Snakes in the offensive fun zone known as Chase Field. On the Arizona side, A.J. Pollock looks healthy and has hit the ground running like the first- or second-round pick we all pegged him at last year before his injury. Paul Goldschmidt looks to be in midseason form already, and Jake Lamb has already gone deep twice. The Diamondbacks are 3-1 and scored 27 runs in their first four games, and two of those were against Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. They will get to face the fourth and fifth starters for the Indians (Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer) but then will have to battle Corey Kluber after a rough opening outing where he conceded five earned runs in six innings to the Rangers.

The Indians are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Rangers in Texas where they averaged seven runs per contest on offense. Their offense will face Shelby Miller, making his first start of the season, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin. Corbin will look to bounce back from his first start where he allowed seven hits and two walks to the Giants while only striking out one. The Greinke start will be interesting as he had well-known velocity issues in the spring, but he looked better than expected in his first regular season start. It'll be interesting to see what the Indians do with Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion this weekend with no DH, but it sounds like Santana will play at least one game in the outfield so I expect both of them to each start two of the three games at a minimum. This series should be a blast between two explosive offenses in a fantastic place to hit, and if you're playing DFS this weekend, start your stacking here!