FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.

PITCHER

Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. COL ($24,400): Bumgarner is the most expensive player in the night games because he's slated for another dominant start. While he lost his first two, this will be his first outing at home, which makes all the difference, as Bumgarner was 55 points better at home in terms of wOBA allowed last season (.241 vs. .296) there. To go with that, the Rockies have a 25.3 K% against lefties this season and that won't improve against Bumgarner, who's had a K% above 24.8 the last five seasons.

Francisco Liriano, TOR vs. BAL ($15,600): Yes, Liriano was blasted in the opener, giving up five runs and not getting an out of the first inning, but I'm willing to chalk that up as a bad start. He pitched well in the spring and his career 24.1 K% will help in this game. The Orioles have struggled early with just a .265 team wOBA against lefties to go with a 24.1 K%.

INFIELD

Mike Moustakas, KC vs. OAK ($6,800): The price on Moustakas is surprisingly cheap given that he already has three home runs in 21 at-bats against righties. With his numbers from 2016 limited due to a torn ACL, it's worth looking back to 2015 when his wOBA was .353 against righties. Jesse Hahn was fine in the opener, but he's been below average against lefties, including last season with a 5.61 xFIP and .443 wOBA allowed.

J.T. Realmuto, MIA vs. NYM ($8,000): Realmuto has had an incredible start and Robert Gsellman isn't a pitcher who's going to slow him down. The numbers on Gsellman are limited, but it's worth noting he was worse against righties last season, giving up a .292 wOBA (.267 vs. lefties) and that was in only 24.1 innings. The biggest thing with Realmuto is that he's better against righties, with last season's .348 wOBA and smaller K% (17.0) showing just that.

Zack Cozart, CIN vs. MIL ($7,200): Cozart is another guy who has started strongly and was equally as good against righties as lefties a season ago. He doesn't strike out a ton (career 16.4%), meaning the eight Ks Jimmy Nelson had in the opener may not matter. Even better, Nelson was worse against righties last season, allowing a .350 wOBA.

OUTFIELD

Adam Duvall, CIN vs. MIL ($8,700): The Reds are cruising and Duvall is a reason for that batting at cleanup. Billy Hamilton is a reasonable pick too, but as said above, Nelson isn't better against righties. Also, against righties is where a lot of Duvall's power comes from, with a .260 ISO last season to go with a solid .335 wOBA.

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY vs. TB ($7,800): The Yankees haven't faced many lefties in 2017 and this will be yet another righty in Matt Andriese. That's good news for Ellsbury, who rarely strikes out (12.7 K%) and has a .340 wOBA in his career against righties. To help, Andriese only made it four innings in the opener and has a career 4.24 xFIP against lefties.

Marcell Ozuna, MIA vs. NYM ($7,200): Ozuna has picked up where he left last season when he finished with a .330 wOBA, and so far all of his power has come against righties. That's a decent enough reason to back him against Gsellman, who had worse all-around numbers against righties last year, including an 18.6 K%.

UTILITY

Chase Headley, NYY vs. TB ($6,400): Headley's price doesn't make much sense given his early success and that he's facing Andriese. Headley has blasted righties in the early going, which is right in line with his career numbers (.334 wOBA). And while he hasn't been as consistent in the last few years, a fall off hasn't started yet this year and it won't against Andriese, who has struggled against lefties, as listed above.

Brandon Crawford, SF vs. COL ($6,900): Crawford has been one of the Giants' most consistent hitters in the early season with a hit in each of his first eight starts. His .334 wOBA against righties last season is a selling point, but Jon Gray has struggled out of the gates with all six of his earned runs coming against lefties.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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