Jake Arrieta, CHC at BOS ($9,600): Arrieta has struck out 29 batters over 24.2 innings this season, while walking just five over that span. His 3.65 ERA is solid but deceptive, as it has been inflated by an unsustainable 20 percent HR/FB rate. Arrieta should have help keeping the ball in the yard against the Red Sox, who have tallied the lowest ISO against right-handed pitchers (.109).
Jeff Samardzija, SF vs. SD ($9,000): Samardzija has tallied an 11.7 percent swinging strike rate, which has contributed to a 27.5 percent strikeout rate. The Padres have struck out 26 percent of the time against righty pitchers, and hold the sixth lowest RAA against the slider, a pitch The Shark throws 20 percent of the time.
Chris Iannetta, ARI vs. COL ($2,700): Iannetta has notched a .214 ISO against lefties in his career, and seems to be getting back on track after a down year in 2016, as he has notched a homer and a double in his first 11 at-bats this season. Iannetta shouldnít have to worry about striking out against a pitcher like Kyle Freeland, who has walked more right-handed batters (eight) than he has struck out (seven) over 17.1 innings.
Freddie Freeman, ATL at MIL ($4,800): Chase Anderson has tallied a superb 1.13 ERA over his first four starts this year, but alarm bells go off when I see his 39 percent hard contact rate against lefties. Freeman, who has registered a .393 ISO against righties over 56 at-bats, should be more than capable of taking advantage of this flaw in a hitter-friendly place like Miller Park.
Ian Kinsler. DET vs. CWS ($4,200): Mike Pelfrey has been a nearly automatic DFS stack for several years. He was stung for five runs in six innings (two appearances) at Triple-A Charlotte this season, and kept a 5.07 ERA in 119 innings with the Tigers in 2016. Pelfrey has kept heavy ground ball rates throughout his career, but that will be no help against Kinsler, who has hit the ball in the air at a 47 percent clip this year.
Chase Headley, NYY vs. BAL ($3,900): Itís hard to overstate how bad Kevin Gausman has been through five starts this season. He has allowed four homers while walking 15 batters in just 24 innings, resulting in a 7.50 ERA. His problems may only get worse when facing a hitter like Headley, who has registered 2.8 RAA against the slider, a pitch Gausman throws a quarter of the time.
Trevor Story, COL at ARI ($4,500): Story strikes out too much, but I canít resist throwing him into a lineup against Robbie Ray, who has allowed an unbelievable 46 percent hard contact rate against righties over 18.1 innings. Story has hit 68 percent of the balls he has put in play into the air, while Ray has established a 48 percent ground ball rate.
Mike Trout, LAA at TEX ($5,600): Itís a shame that the Angels are performing so poorly in general, as it could limit the effectiveness of a stack against Nick Martinez, who carried a 5.59 ERA in 38.2 innings last season. Martinezís career strikeout rate doesnít break 13 percent, which should give most teams the opportunity to light him up in Globe Life Park. Trout will obviously lead the charge for DFS players, having tallied a .347 ISO against right-handed pitchers over 72 at-bats.
Hernan Perez, MIL vs. ATL ($3,600): Bartolo Colon throwing 88 mph fastballs in Miller Park seems like a nice opportunity for offense, particularly when one considers that he has allowed a 36 percent hard contact rate this season. Perez has found the bench against righties at certain points, but it will be hard to keep him out of the lineup if he maintains an ISO near the .300 mark.
Adam Jones, BAL at NYY ($4,100): CC Sabathia is another pitcher whose peripherals forecast a rough road, as he has allowed a 36 percent hard contact rate against righty batters to go along with a 13.6 percent strikeout rate. Jones has tallied a 38 percent hard contact rate against lefties, while striking out at less than a 15 percent clip.