The Z Files: Strikeout Rate Outliers Part Two

Last week, I looked at six hitters whiffing more than I expected along with six fanning less. This week, the focus will be on pitchers with a higher or lower strikeout percentage than I projected coming into the season. The theory behind this exercise was discussed a couple weeks ago. In brief, we're at the point of the season where I'm comfortable reevaluating my original expectations with respect to punchouts and may opt to tweak my over/under line.

Something I'm doing more this season is evaluating strikeouts in conjunction with other skills. Well, I've always done that. However, with the narrative hitters are selling out contact for power, I'm keeping that in mind even more. As an example, a strikeout increase for a groundball pitcher is extremely intriguing. More strike threes mean fewer balls in play, which is important since more grounders result in hits than fly balls. Moreover, groundball hurlers are less likely to be affected by the free swingers.

Let's get to it. Here are six pitchers exhibiting a higher strikeout percentage than anticipated and another half dozen not missing as many bats as I thought they would in the spring. The six at either extreme will be featured. Feel free to ask about someone in between in the comments.

Higher than expected strikeout percentage (strikeouts per batters faced)

Wade Miley, Baltimore Orioles (projected 18.4 percent, actual 28.8 percent): In full disclosure, Chris Sale exhibits the biggest delta between what I projected and what he's currently sporting. Hopefully, you didn't come here for me to tell you Sale's good, but several are wondering if it's time to sell high on Miley. It'll be easier said than done, but yes, despite an elevated strikeout rate, the lefty's due for a huge correction. His 9.4 percent swinging strike rate (SwStr%) portends to an 8.4 K/9 as opposed to the lofty 10.8 level it currently sits. Miley's 5.4 BB/9 is terrible. In fact, he has the lowest strike percentage of anyone tossing at least 30 innings to date. He's been blessed with a lucky 90.2 left on base percentage (LOB%), resulting in a 2.27 ERA. A 3.74 FIP and 3.72 xFIP tell a better story. If I were confident Miley could carry an ERA in the 3.70-3.80 range, he'd be a hold, but once the strikeouts plummet, Lady Luck will be hard pressed to keep Miley's ERA under 4.00.

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (projected 24 percent, actual 33.3 percent): Mets fans could use some good news. Maybe this will help. There are some yellow flags, but at least as far as strikeouts are concerned, deGrom's increased dominance looks real. To wit, he's recorded one of the best SwStr% in the league, topped by only Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Danny Salazar. It won't stay north of 30 percent, but I'll take the over on my original expectation. Like Miley, deGrom's control is an issue as he's carrying a 4.0 BB/9. Despite all the punchouts, deGrom's 3.80 ERA could be frustrating his owners. Take heed in his 3.36 FIP and 2.90 xFIP and see what it takes to land him, especially in keeper leagues, and especially if his owner is languishing early.

Trevor Cahill, San Diego Padres (projected 20.8 percent, actual 30.1 percent): Cahill's a good example of looking at his increased whiffs as part of the big picture. Like deGrom, the increased dominance is supported by a top five SwStr%. He's also walking too many, toting a 4.1 BB/9. The intriguing aspect is the veteran righty continues to be an extreme groundball pitcher, helping to limit homers. Cahill's current 3.06 ERA is in sync with his 2.79 FIP and 3.09 xFIP. With so many top pitchers on the shelf, the pickings are slim for those looking to fortify their staff. You'll likely have to take a leap of faith or two. If I can acquire Cahill from someone looking to sell high, I'm in.

Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (projected 19.7 percent, actual 28.7 percent): Samardzija is the classic example of where perception meets numbers. Even though Samardzija's peripherals are outstanding, he has many detractors. Maybe in the end the eyes will have it, but I trust my model and hence see a precipitous drop in Shark's current 5.44 ERA, corroborated by his 3.44 FIP and 2.88 xFIP. That said, Samardzija's SwStr% translates to closer to 8.8 K/9 than its present 10.7 mark. Still, if he keeps up his typical excellent control, even with fewer punchouts, the righty will be a strong fantasy asset the rest of the season.

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (projected 23.6 percent, actual 32.4 percent): Nobody questioned Ray's proclivity to rack up the whiffs, it was his control and ability to work deep into games that were the concerns. And they still are, but to this point of the campaign, Ray has exceeded his already lofty strikeout expectations. However, while his SwStr% is excellent, a 12.7 K/9 is a mite high. Nothing's really changed with the young lefty. If he can shave some free passes off his 5.0 BB/9, we're looking at a potential top 30 fantasy starter, maybe better. Currently, I see him with a good chance to be a top 40 guy.

Luis Severino, New York Yankees (projected 21.4 percent, actual 29.2 percent): Severino closes out the better-than-projected arms, as the 23-year-old righty is rewarding the Yankees' patience and trust that he could be a quality starter. Even so, beware, his SwStr% projects closer to an 8.8 K/9 than the lofty 10.2 where it now sits. The rest of his numbers are a bit weird. That, and the lack of a track record to fall back on, render it difficult to forecast what is likely to transpire over the next four-plus months. Severino's 1.6 BB/9 is stellar, which obviously bodes well. Where it gets hairy is hit and home run rate. He's been fortunate on batting average on balls in play (BABIP) while being snakebit on homers per fly ball. This explains the discrepancy between his 3.57 FIP and 2.62 xFIP as, remember, xFIP normalizes homers. Severino is a groundball pitcher so when his 22 percent home run per fly ball mark regresses, his already impressive 3.40 ERA should drop. Where it ends up revolves around where his .232 BABIP lands. As a groundball pitcher, that should head up over .300, perhaps mitigating the ERA drop from fewer homers. With the likely drop in strikeouts, I'd expect everything to be a wash, resulting in an ERA in the mid-threes, like it is now, which is fine for the AL East.

Lower than expected strikeout percentage

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (projected 24.8 percent, actual 17.7 percent): Not only is Snell fanning fewer than expected, his already sketchy control has gotten even worse. Only Miley has tossed a lower strike percentage than Snell. He's a flyball pitcher, which makes matters even worse, even in power-suppressing Tropicana Field. Some may see a reasonable 3.96 ERA and take solace, but they're looking through blinders as his 5.02 FIP and 5.16 xFIP tell the real story. Long term, it's way too early to throw in the towel, but for this season, cutting bait before the damage digs deeper is recommended.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles (projected 23 percent, actual 15.6 percent): Gausman finally displayed the talent the fantasy community counted on this season earlier in the week against the Washington Nationals. The problem is, he was likely reserved after a terrible month to open the season. Even including that excellent effort, Gausman's strikeout rate is down, supported by a drop in SwStr%. His velocity and pitch mix are like last season, as is his line drive rate allowed and hard hit rate. Other than the drop in SwStr%, the chief difference was control. That said, based on the percentage of balls thrown, his 4.5 BB/9 was higher than the 4.00 mark it should have been. Granted, this is still too high, but it does offer a glimmer of hope. Assuming Gausman is healthy, more outings like his last are in store. However, the drop in strikeouts limits his bounce-back potential, though he could prove to be one that comes out over the newly projected, and lower, strikeout rate for the rest of the season.

Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals (projected 23.8 percent, actual 16 percent): Admittedly, some of Duffy's strikeout shortcoming could be due to my optimistic outlook, but I wasn't alone. By the numbers, the southpaw's velocity is the lowest it's been in his career, and that's coming off a season where it was the highest. The narrative could be, "knowing he's expected to make 32 or 33 starts, he's pitching to contact." For the record, in general, I despise that notion. It's lazy analysis. Other than a slo-pitch softball pitcher, no one toeing the rubber wants the batter to make contact. But whenever a pitcher is fanning fewer than expected, the Pavlovian commentary is "he's pitching to contact." Anyway, Duffy may indeed be pacing himself, but that doesn't account for the bump in bases on balls, back to the neighborhood he lived in prior to last season. A 3.50 ERA serves to assuage fantasy owners wanting more whiffs, but a 4.67 xFIP warns a correction is impending once Duffy's 4.3 HR/FB normalizes. It'll be a tough sell without the strikeouts, but I'd be looking to deal Duffy, unless his velocity picks up in the next couple of starts.

Matt Harvey, New York Mets (projected 22 percent, actual 13.5 percent): Harvey's included since his drop in expected strikeouts meets the criteria, but quite honestly, I wanted nothing to do with him coming into the season and nothing's changed. My concern is the lack of knowledge we have when it comes to pitchers returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Even after he started the campaign looking strong, I was skeptical. The bottom line is I'm willing to be wrong. That's more philosophy. By the numbers, it was hard to baseline Harvey in the spring, since he was returning from injury. As suggested, his first four starts were encouraging, followed by one where he took the hill on short notice, purportedly too soon after a between-start workout. That was followed by another poor effort and the recent club-imposed suspension. Maybe he uses the suspension as motivation, as his velocity is down a tick but still sufficient to right his low SwStr%. I'm still reticent, not having a handle on what may transpire as spring turns to summer and the innings mount.

Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies (projected 21.6 percent, actual 10.7 percent): All things considered, Hellickson's owners are willing to overlook his scant 4.0 K/9, instead relishing an early 4-1 mark with a 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. However, a .218 BABIP is a large reason for his 5.34 FIP and 5.44 xFIP. Coming into the season, Hellickson's projected strikeout rate was below league average, so it's not like a ton of whiffs were expected. However, if he doesn't push his current anemic rate up, a big ERA correction is around the corner. Fortunately, it appears he's been unlucky in the strikeout departments as his SwStr% translates to 6.7 K/9, still low but better than its present 4.0 mark. Even at his best, Hellickson isn't a difference maker, more a nice back end innings provider on a mixed league staff. Once everything fleshes out, that's where he should nestle. The strikeouts will pick up, countering the inevitable increase in hit rate.

Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers (projected 23.5 percent, actual 11.5 percent): Technically, Hamels qualifies but I almost left him out since he's not likely to take the hill again until around the All-Star break. Since that's still plenty of time to make an impact and he made the cut, especially since he's a logical target for those in keeper leagues looking to make a push when he returns. Sometimes we overlook that the veteran lefty is now 33 years old, with 10 consecutive seasons throwing at least 183 frames on his ledger. Averaging 208 innings per season for a decade must take a toll. Hamel may have begun to show the effects of the wear and tear last season with an elevated walk rate. Before hitting the disabled list with a strained right oblique, Hamels walks were like last season while his strikeout rate was less than half its normal level. That's scary. Over that 10 year span, Hamel's registered an impressive 8.5 K/9, including a 9.0 last year. So what's up with 4.1 mark this season? It's not velocity, that's consistent with previous seasons. His first pitch strike percentage is low, but on a par with 2016. His ball percentage is fine. He's just not generating swings and misses. If healthy, my rest of season strikeout expectation would have dropped, but it still would have been ample enough to make a difference. Who knows how he'll come back, but since the injury isn't to his arm, I'm optimistic Hamels can be a force down the stretch. It won't be of ace proportions, but considering what else is out there, I'm willing to stash Hamels, particularly in keeper leagues where his owner could be looking for future parts.