Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

The season winds on, and occasionally it's fun (and productive) to discuss random thoughts and observations. In fantasy baseball, the answer to the ultimate question is always elusive but still worth seeking. I'm not sure that all encompassing answer is contained below, but hopefully we'll inspire some interactive conversation that can help us all achieve the optimal pitching staff. It's worth a shot, so let's go.

The first no-hitter in almost 14 months: Remember when Miami's Edinson Volquez used to tease us with streaks, albeit usually short, stretches of dominance? He entered last Saturday's contest with a 1-7 record and a 4.44 ERA. Too many pitches, too many walks and limited run support all contributed to a lackluster start to the season. Then, he decided to remind us that he does have fairly good stuff when he throws it for strikes. The results were the first MLB no-hitter since April, 2016, and Volquez needed only 98 pitches to complete it. Don't expect him to become an ace, but if you own him (not many do), enjoy his day in the sun. And, here's a little tidbit: Since 1993 when Miami entered the National League, that franchise has produced the most no-hitters with six. The Marlins home ballpark is very pitcher friendly, but the team also does a good job with what they have in their sometimes thin pitching ranks.

So, why is offense so prominent these days: Interestingly, Volquez' no-no came on the same day Albert Pujols became the ninth player in MLB history to log 600 home runs. He was the first of the nine to record his 600th with a grand slam, but in keeping with the day, his slam was just one of seven hit. That was a MLB record, too. There had never been seven grand slams hit in one day. Home runs, grand slams, lots of runs scored, it's the game today. Baseball has wanted to increase runs scored for years, and it looks like there are several factors, including a more hitter friendly strike zone, contributing to meeting that objective. Another is the modified approach adopted by many hitters. Someone determined that only seven percent of ground balls turn into hits. An adjustment seems obvious – hit more fly balls, and swing out of your shoes and hope anything you hit goes far. After all, home runs pay better than infield singles at contract time. However, maybe the biggest boost to offense is the amazing jump in injuries to front line pitchers. We'll get to that below.

It's time to address the elephant in the room – umpiring: Long-time readers probably cannot recall me ever mentioning umpires in the column. I don't think I ever have. There always have been good ones and those who weren't so good, but I honestly never thought they had a significant impact on the game – until now. I have seen more pitches in the zone called balls, and pitches out of the zone called strikes than ever before. You might say, well that probably balances out, and in some ways it does, but the problem lies in the inconsistency. From a pitcher's perspective, there have always been "pitcher's umpires" with slightly larger strike zones, and "hitter's umpires" who offer a smaller zone. That's not a problem as long as they're consistent. Throw the same pitch, with the same movement, to the same spot, and it's virtually always a strike (or a ball), so you know where you stand. That consistency is lacking this year. The more movement and the further away from the middle of the zone, the less likely it is to be a strike. Then again, the next pitch, several inches off the plate might be a strike. The result – when a pitcher has to have a strike, he throws to the middle of the plate. Hitters recognize this, so they are more patient and wait for the most hittable pitches, often a pitch they can elevate (remember the desire to get the ball in the air). Higher pitch counts, shorter outings and more hard contact shouldn't be too surprising. Add in more innings from pitchers well down on the food chain, pitching to cover for the countless injuries, and the challenge is greatly magnified.

The "Do No Harm" principle: At this writing, only three teams are allowing fewer than four runs per game (Dodgers, Astros and Diamondbacks). On the other side of the coin, you will find seven teams allowing more than five runs per game. The Dodgers easily are allowing the fewest at 3.41, and for comparison purposes, the team leading the ERA category in my 15-team home league is sitting at 3.80. In most years, that's a middle-of-the-pack ERA. I have mentioned this principle many times. The impact of injuries is devastating for the actual MLB teams and your fantasy squad. Just like you, they may have to replace a solid starter, and their goal will be (at least) to "do no harm" while the regular starter is out of action. It's unlikely you'll be able to stack a rotation with nothing but healthy, top of the rotation talent, but you have to be judicious when filling those replacement slots and always be looking to upgrade that spot. A bad fill-in can be disastrous. In a very short time, they can wreck your WHIP and ERA for virtually the entire season. So, remember, an upgrade helps in two ways: You get the benefit of the numbers posted by the better pitcher and you get the benefit of not having to absorb the ugly numbers provided by the lesser guy.

All strikes are not alike: Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to throw quality strikes to a target within the zone. It seems like an exercise in semantics. Maybe I can provide an illustration of the difference. Clayton Kershaw throws the highest percentage of pitches for strikes (69.1 percent). That probably doesn't surprise anyone. Kershaw's ability to throw strikes with exceptional command has defined his career and established him as arguably the best pitcher in the game today. So now we need an example of a "control" pitcher who can throw strikes but who doesn't have command of the zone and lacks the stuff to make those strikes consistently count. This may be a bit more surprising, but we don't have to look far. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin maintains the second highest pitches for strikes percentage (68.8 percent). End of lesson.

Should I drop this guy to add that guy: This may (understandably) be the most frequently asked question here in the Musings. As I just said, you always should be looking to improve, especially the bottom slots in your rotation. The trick is, completing the question – "Should I drop this guy to add this guy to my lineup right now," or, "Should I drop this guy from my bench to add this guy in the hopes of eventually getting better?" The answers usually will be very different. It depends on upside or ceiling. If the guy you're looking to pick up has limited upside, he probably needs to replace someone with less in your lineup right now. Stashing a pitcher who can't take a rotation spot now, and is unlikely to do so in the future, doesn't really help you. However, if you have a spot on your bench, and a pitcher who has been hurt or is underperforming as he perhaps fights some mechanical issues becomes available, adding him could be prudent. Looking to improve doesn't always mean today, it could be next week or next month. Just always remember, moves should improve your starting lineup at some point. Have a plan.

There you have it– a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch, and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• In perhaps the best news I have reported this year, the Pirates will welcome back Jameson Taillon next week. After undergoing surgery for testicular cancer just a few weeks ago, he has looked spectacular in his rehab starts. How things progress likely will be a day-to-day thing for a while, but we'll welcome him back!

• With Taillon hopefully nearing a return, things are also going the right direction for Colorado's Chad Bettis. He too was diagnosed with testicular cancer, and has now been declared cancer-free following chemotherapy. He's moving toward bullpen sessions and is targeting a return around the All-Star break.

• If Seattle's Ariel Miranda gains confidence and consistency with his slider (a pitch he rarely uses now) he could be a useful fantasy starter. He has a nice fastball and splitter so one more strong pitch would help. I picked him up last week and he looked good, albeit against a free-swinging Rays' squad.

• I watched a little of the Marlins' Dan Straily's start against the Cubs on Monday. He took the loss with a reasonably good line (three earned in seven innings), but I wasn't too impressed with his effectiveness. With a strong wind blowing at Wrigley Field, he had several hard hit balls die on the warning track.

• He has gone from lacking control to sometimes lacking command, and that is progress for Detroit southpaw Daniel Norris. He has always had good stuff but didn't get deep into many games because of walks and high pitch counts. He still gets hurt by the long ball, but he's hitting his spots with more consistency.

• On Tuesday night Boston's Drew Pomeranz picked up a win, allowing two runs (one earned) over five innings. He gave up six hits, walked two and struck out seven. Not too shabby. What was shabby was the 123 pitches it took for him to cover those five innings. I just don't see him moving forward.
  

Last Sunday, the Nationals' Koda Glover was hit around for the first time since taking over the closer gig. He got the team out of an eighth inning jam but allowed four singles and a walk to start the ninth. Shawn Kelley finished off the save but dirtied Glover's line in the process by serving up a grand slam, costing Glover three extra earned runs. If things go as planned, Aroldis Chapman could return to the Yankees in the next week. That should give both his team and fantasy owners a reason to smile. Santiago Casilla has been a questionable closer for a while, but Oakland doesn't have any really strong alternatives. Sean Doolittle may be back soon, but his health issues might keep him out (at least full time) as their closer. Houston's Ken Giles had a rough outing on Tuesday, allowing a bases-loaded double after entering the game with two outs in the eighth (blown save), then serving up a two-run homer in the ninth to take the loss. His job is probably not in jeopardy yet, but he has been scored upon in three straight outings. If Tony Watson continues to scuffle in Pittsburgh, Felipe Rivero could get a chance.