Regan's Rumblings: Struggling Veterans

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET

Projected: .318/.398/.546, 30 HR

Current: .268/.374/.408, 5 HR

In a 10-team mixed league I have with some buddies, I've actually considered dropping Cabrera. Earlier this year, I could have picked up Ryan Zimmermann, Yonder Alonso, or Justin Smoak. The injured Justin Bour is still out there, as are Logan Morrison and 1B-eligible Jay Bruce. It's tempting, as this is not an OBP league and Cabrera isn't hitting for power or average. I think the average will come up, but where is the pop? This is a guy with a .559 career slugging percentage with a career-low mark of .524.

On the plus side, his 13.4% BB% is excellent, and while his 20.4% K% is a bit high for him, it's still pretty solid for a "power hitter". If you look at his batted ball data, Cabrera's hard hit rate is a career-best 46.7%, but the trajectory on his hits appears to have changed. He's well above his career 22.3% line drive rate at 31.4%, and that's led to a career-low 29.9% fly ball rate. Combine that with a 12.2% HR/FB rate that is about average, but still well below his 19% career mark, and you can see the net result being five home runs. His plate discipline data seems to indicate that he's swinging a bit more often and missing with slightly more frequency given his 11.6% swinging strike rate, a mark that's been as low as 8.2% and that is at 10% for his career.

Overall, I am a bit concerned. Cabrera is 34, and while I do think he has something left in the tank, the increased strikeout rate and lack of power this year has the look of some combination of a skills degradation and/or perhaps a lingering injury. I have a real hard time dropping a guy with his resume, even in shallow leagues, but if you want to ride one of the many first base surprises this year and at least bench Cabrera, I wouldn't blame you.

Manny Machado, 3B, BAL

With 12 home runs, Machado at least has a chance at his third consecutive 30+ home runs season, but after last year's .876 OPS, his fantasy owners were certainly expecting better than .218/.295/.431 this year. He has to be hurt right? Before going there, let's take a look at the underlying data and see if that tells a story. His 9.6% BB% first of all is well above his 6.8% career mark and his .213 ISO could be better, but it's still at least close to last year's .239. Machado's 76% contact is below his 81% career mark, but it still doesn't explain a .218 batting average. Is it bad luck given a .231 BABIP? That would be the easy conclusion, but let's go deeper. Machado's 94.5 mph exit velocity is in the top-10 among all hitters this year, and his 40.1% hard hit rate is by far a career high. All the data appears to indicate that he shouldn't be hitting .218, and if you want to go deeper on Machado, FanGraphs did a stats-heavy piece on him earlier this month that concludes that Machado's slump is some combination of bad luck, some variations in batted ball data from prior years, and yes, even a psychological element. Machado seems to be too good to NOT figure things out, and quickly.

Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT

I've already downgraded my expectations for Polanco from perennial All-Star to perhaps a guy who makes a couple mid-summer classics in what ultimately will be a disappointing career. Polanco is batting just .250/.321/.366 with a disappointing three home runs and seven stolen bases. Polanco is a career .252 hitter, so perhaps that's his baseline now, but given the prospect hype, I know many people had higher expectations than .250. On the plus side, his 14.2% K% is excellent, but Polanco's 22.8% hard hit rate is by far a career low and his 45.5% ground ball rate is subpar. At 25, it's certainly not out of the question that Polanco will figure something out and blossom into a .300/.370/.500 guy at some point, but don't expect it any time soon.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL

At .219/.297/.342, Gonzalez is in the midst of by far the worst season of his career. His 10.4% BB% and 20.1% K%, but Gonzalez's .123 ISO and .256 BABIP are anemic compared to his .224 and .332 career marks. What does the batted ball data tell us? His hard hit rate is well down at 29.5%, with most of that decrease moving into the medium hit rate column. His 48.6% ground ball rate is a little elevated over his 45.5% career rate, but not markedly so. Gonzalez's .256 BABIP is well below his .332 career mark and his 9.1% HR/FB rate is also way down, but what does that tell us really? Okay, maybe there is an element of bad luck, and I expect he'll break out of his 5-for-51 slump in relatively short order, but what can we expect the rest of the way? I think he can still end up with 20+ home runs, but remember, Gonzalez also hit .238 in his injury-plagued 2014 seasons, so there is still plenty of batting average risk, particularly given that he's not hitting the ball as hard so far this year. Still, given the way former scrubs like Yonder Alonso are playing, I can't write a guy off who has a pair of .950+ OPS seasons on his resume.

Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX

This guy is killing me too. I've actually considered dropping him (and Jose Peraza for that matter) for Whit Merrifield in one league. Odor is batting just .210/.251/.369 with nine home runs. After hitting 33 long balls last year, Odor is a guy who could easily go on a run and finish with 30 this season, but does he hit closer to last year's .271 the rest of the way or this year's .210? Given a 3.9% career BB%, the batting average drop probably shouldn't be a huge surprise. A good chunk of his medium hit balls from last year have moved into the soft column in 2017, and curiously, his infield fly ball rate has jumped from 8.2% to a whopping 24.4%, likely explaining a good portion of why he's sporting a .256 BABIP. Odor is just 23, so he has plenty of time to figure things out, but even in the minors, Odor didn't walk much and it's tough to see why someone would think he's hit more than .230 the rest of the way. I just don't see any progress. His strikeout rate is up for the second consecutive year and he's not hitting the ball as hard. Pitchers look to have adjusted, but will he adjust back? Maybe in a few years.

Trevor Story, SS, COL

Here's another middle infielder who has killed me this year (see the trend here?). Now of course last year's 31.3% K% was a concern, but Story still hit .272/.341/.567 with 27 home runs in just 97 games, giving me visions of 40+ home runs from a shortstop. Well, he's now hitting .206/.302/.400 in 119 plate appearances with eight home runs. By comparison, through games of June 12 last year, story was batting .261/.312/.542 with 16 home runs. Encouragingly, his BB% is up from 8.4% to 12.1%, but his K% has risen to 34.7%, meaning in about half his plate appearances, he's either hitting a home run, walking, or striking out. Story's exit velocity, distance, and launch angle are well above league average as is his 59.4% fly ball rate. Story's hard hit rate is down at 33%, making me wonder if he's still bothered a bit by his surgically-repaired thumb. Still, he's getting the ball in the air plenty enough, so I think the power will be there this year. The batting average however might be another "story" given all the strikeouts and the declining hard hit rate. At this point unless he starts to show quick progress in pitch recognition and contact rate, I'd be surprised to see him hit much above .230-.240 the rest of the way.

Justin Verlander, SP, DET

Verlander has seen his velocity increase 1.5 mph (probably closer to .8 mph given the way velocity is measured now, but still, UP) over last year, but his strikeout rate has dropped from 10.0 K/9 and his BB/9 has spiked from 2.3 to 4.4, resulting in a 4.68 ERA supported by a 4.65 FIP. Digging deeper, Verlander's hard hit rate has spiked to 38.2%, well above last year's 28.9% mark and his 27% career rate. His 8.9% swinging strike rate is way down from last year's 12%, and if you parse out the data, it's down notably for all four of his primary offerings. Combined all this with the walks and it's easy to see why the ERA is elevated. How can he fix things? Can he start throwing more high 97 mph fastballs, a pitch that led to great success last year? Sure he can. The velocity is fine and Verlander has already showed the ability to adjust after a poor 2014. I think this is a good buy low opportunity. Just don't use him on the road in DFS right now, as he's sporting a 6.40 ERA away from Comerica Park.

Jacob DeGrom, SP, NYM

On the plus side, DeGrom is striking guys out at a career-best 11.1 K/9 versus 8.7 last year, but all other ratios have taken a step back:

Julio Teheran, SP, ATL

Teheran appeared to take a step forward last year, posting a 3.21 ERA in 30 starts, but like DeGrom above, he's struggled with walks and home runs and is missing fewer bats:

Jose Quintana, SP, CHW

Anyone think the White Sox are kicking themselves for not dealing Quintana this winter? Given his contract (4/$35.35MM through 2020) and recent performance, the return could have been close to what they received from the Red Sox for Chris Sale. Instead they are stuck with a pitcher who is 2-8 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP a year after he finished 10th in the AL Cy Young race. Quintana has lost some velocity (0.3 if you look on our site, but again, probably closer to 1.0 mph if you factor in the change in methodology of how velocity is measured). That said, the historic pace at which batters are striking out this year has impacted Quintana in a positive way, as his K/9 is a career-best 8.9. At the same time, his 3.6 BB/9 is easily a career-worst (2.4 BB/9 for his career) and of course, the home runs are up (1.2 per nine) just like every other pitcher it seems. There's really nothing revealing in his batted ball data and while his 8.3% swinging strike rate is relatively low, it's always been low (8.5% career), so perhaps this is simply a function of a difficult schedule. I'm not ready to toss aside four consecutive 200+ innings seasons with an ERA between 3.20 and 3.51 because of a few extra walks and home runs. I do think there's a good chance he's traded, and I would expect his fantasy value to increase as a result.

Rick Porcello, SP, BOS

I'm not sure anyone expected a repeat of his improbably Cy Young season, but I certainly didn't expect 3-8 with a 4.67 ERA. With an 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, Porcello's FIP sits at 3.94, which is probably even higher than what I'd expect for his rest-of-season ERA at this point. Like others on this list, Porcello's HR rate is way up at 1.45 HR/9 and his hard hit rate is way up at 42.5% (30% last year), so he's appearing to fool less hitters this year versus last. Given his velocity is stable and his swinging strike rate sits at 10.7% (8.2% last year, 7.7% career), I am somewhat optimistic here, but even so, after his 3.15 ERA last year, I'm still thinking he'll be lucky to crack 4.00 in his remaining starts. Aaron Judge won't help.