The Z Files: Reviewing Rest-of-Season Hitter Projections

One of the responsibilities I have is monitoring the in-season rankings, massaging any needing adjustment. Today, I'm going to discuss some of the hitters I originally questioned, but after further review, agreed with their current rest-of-season expectations.

Before digging in, something to keep in mind is teams have varying numbers of games remaining. For example, through Wednesday, the Angels have the fewest games left with 73. Seven clubs have 79 more contests, 10 have 78 while six have 77. That's 23 squads with at least 4 more games on the docket than the Angels. This costs Angels a few rankings spots while elevating some players with more games still to play.

Daniel Murphy, Washington (Rank: 21)

The catch with Murphy is I wasn't sure if I felt he was too high or too low. The question isn't performance; Murphy has demonstrated the ability to hit for average and power long enough to trust his new skill level and .325 batting average expectation over the second half. Murphy was ahead of the curve in terms of adding loft to his swing and it's paid off.

Projecting playing time is the key. Murphy's averaged 138 games over the past three seasons. To date, he's played in 78 of the Nationals 84 contests. Prorating that over the full schedule, Murphy would total 150 games. That's exactly where he's projected. Just keep in mind based on the past few seasons, a second-half stint on the disabled list wouldn't be surprising.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians (Rank: 22)

Sometimes you know a player is performing better than expected, but until you have a way to put things in perspective, you don't realize the extent of the improvement. At his current rank, Ramirez lands as a mid-second rounder in a 15-team league. That seems silly. Is there anything about his rest-of-season projection that's silly? We have him for .306-9-33-10-45. Honestly? This may be conservative.

Last season Ramirez hit .312, so far in 2017 he's hitting .326. His baseline is still reflecting the .262 mark from 2014 as well as the putrid .219 registered in 2015. If there's a number to question it's his homers. Ramirez has already eclipsed his career high, knocking 15 out of the yard. The increase results from a few more fly balls in tandem with a spike in home run per fly ball (HR/FB). The past couple of campaigns, Ramirez sports a six percent HR/FB. That sits at 14 percent to date in 2017. Supporting this is an increase in hard hit rate, from a career level of 27 percent to 35 percent. While both are a significant increase, neither are at a level where regression is a no-brainer.

Next season, when most do projections on a three-year average, the poor 2015 numbers will drag the baseline down. I'm comfortable saying my 2018 projection will be rosier than those driven by conventional algorithms since I'll soften the 2015 contribution even more than a weighted three-year average.

Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics (Ranks 31)

My Wednesday and Friday podcast partner Derek Van Riper likes to look at rolling 162-game samples on a player to get a clearer view of their performance, the idea being it's a more reflective assessment than prorating to-date seasonal production. Over the past year, Davis' line is .241-46-106-4-100. Suddenly, an early third-round rank doesn't seem so bizarre.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (Rank: 32)

It's borderline shocking how little venom Machado has endured in fantasy circles. This is a guy with an ADP of eight in the spring, currently checking in with a .215 average at the midway point. He does have 16 homers and four swipes so it hasn't been a total bust over the first half, but Machado is certainly disappointing in three of the five standard roto categories.

Obviously, the conundrum is where the average will be going forward? Truthfully, it's a guess, which will no doubt land somewhere in the middle of where he's at and where he's supposed to be at. While I understand projection theory, from a practical point of view, Machado either fixes what ails him or he doesn't. Of course, if he fixes it, his end-of-season average lands in the middle, but our concern is what it'll be the final few months.

Machado's strikeouts are up a little, but not enough to be the major concern. The culprit is a .223 batting average on balls in play, well below a .301 career mark. Here's the weird part. Machado's hard hit rate is an impressive 39 percent, well above his career norm. However, his line drive rate has plummeted to a lowly 13 percent. The missing liners are now grounders. If Machado's hard contact were the issue, I'd be worried. I'm more confident Machado's line drive rate will return over the second half, yielding the player closer to the first-round talent we've grown accustomed to seeing. We're projecting a .266 average from here on out. I'm looking for something in the .280-.290 range.

Justin Upton, Detroit Tigers (Rank 33)

Upton has the perception of being a streaky hitter. The truth of the matter is all batters are streaky. Whether he's truly streakier is good talk-radio fodder, but moot to the matter at hand. Buoying his elevated rank is a spike in average, with more runs and RBI along for the ride. The extra average points emanate from a huge 43 percent hard-hit rate. Upton has always carried an above-average mark in this department; this season it's among the league leaders.

Can he keep it up? Again, middling the numbers leaves us with a mark better than initially anticipated, but regressed from its current level. This is reflected in a second-half average projection of .263, down from its current .271 but better than the original .252.

Here's the real factor driving Upton's stellar first half. His batting average with runners in scoring position (BA w/RISP) is a whopping .394, well above his career .263 mark. To use a cliché, Upton isn't suddenly more clutch. He's benefited from a cluster of hits occurring with ducks on the pond. Upton has only recorded one 100-RBI season, but since RBI are a team-oriented stat, it's not fair to compare this season to his career totals, and just comparing to his one season in Detroit is a small sample.

What's fair is not expecting Upton to double the 54 RBI chalked up so far. We have him for 44 more, passing the sniff test. Similarly, we're counting on fewer runs. To be fair, we're projecting fewer at-bats, but the difference isn't enough to make up the difference in run production. The bottom line is I didn't find anything off-putting with Upton's second half projection and ranking.

Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins (Rank 34)

Sano's analysis combines several of the factors discussed already. Specifically, he's never played a full season, his average is above original expectation and his run production is way ahead of the projected pace.

It's an admitted leap of faith, but our second half projection calls for Sano to remain on the field for the bulk of the final three months. We've shaved off 25 trips to the dish, but that doesn't even amount to a stint on the disabled, more like a three or four day respite while recovering from a minor injury.

With respect to average, Sano is still fanning excessively. His current .277 mark comes from a .388 BABIP. Sano's exit velocity has been one of the best since Statcast started tracking it; this season is no exception. In fact, it's reached an even higher level. It almost must fall back, but then we're projecting .256 the rest of the season, so regression is accounted for.

That leaves run production, especially RBI as Sano has already knocked in 60 tallies. As opposed to Upton's elevated BA w/RISP, Sano's is just a little higher than his seasonal average. Part of Sano's bloated RBI total is an improved Twins offense, but the bulk is due to a league-wide trend. Not only are homers up, but the percentage of runs scored via the long ball is up. In fact, it's way up. Since Sano's calling card is the long ball, it follows his RBI, and to a lesser extent runs, are higher than initially expected. That said, our second half projection cuts RBI from 60 to 46 and runs from 50 to 41. But, when you put it together with one of the highest projected homer totals going forward, Sano projects to third-round production over the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates (Rank: 35)

This one's straightforward, calling into play a philosophy cited earlier. Last season was an off year for McCutchen. Yet, conventional projection systems just dropped the numbers into the little black box, most of which weigh the most recent campaign as much, if not more than the previous seasons combined. A more practical approach would have been to consider that either McCutchen forgot how to hit or he didn't. It's clear he still know what to do with a bat in his hand. The mistake was baking too much of last season into McCutchen's spring projection. This is where he should have been ranked, kudos to everyone that believed and is now reaping the rewards.

Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers (Rank: 43)

Remember when the big talking point was Thames or a then-slumping Edwin Encarnacion for the rest of the season? For the record, Encarnacion is ranked 15. We're still working mostly blind with Thames, as half a season's worth of data isn't sufficient to define who he is. Painting with a broad-based brush, it appears the power is real but so are the strikeouts, tempering batting average.

Perhaps the most surprising element to Thames' first half is just two swipes. Perhaps missing the spark from Jonathan Villar, the Brewers aren't running as much as last season.

A 16 percent walk rate is a good sign, and in part responsible for a slightly higher batting average expectation in the second half. We still don't have enough data to unequivocally consider Thames a late-third rounder next spring. And, to be honest, we won't once this season is over. Sure, we'll have more data than heading into this season, but Thames range of 2018 outcomes will be more varied than players with an established track record.

Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles (Rank: 51)

Of all the players, Schoop is the biggest eyebrow raiser -- fourth rounder, really?

It's all about the batting average. Schoop's pop has never been questioned. His strikeout rate is on a par with last season, which was an improvement from previous seasons. That leaves BABIP and a review of line drive and hard-hit rate. Compared to last season, Schoop's hard-hit rate is up, but it's on par with 2015's level. On the other hand, his line drive rate is a career best, well above his usual mark.

Line drive rate tends to regress to career numbers, unless the hitter has made a tangible change to his approach or mechanics. There's a chance Schoop has indeed improved his approach based on a career-low chase rate. It follows he could be hitting more line drives since he's swinging at pitches more likely to be barreled.

If the chase-rate is sustained, our current .276 second-half average for Schoop could be light. That means Schoop's rank could be better.

This is one of the toughest aspects of my personal game-play. I know the numbers. I trust the numbers. The numbers say Schoop could be a top 50 fantasy player over the second half.

But it's Jonathan Freaking Schoop. Third rounder? Top 50? My heart thinks my head is crazy.

I know the numbers. I trust the numbers.

You'll have to excuse me. I need to see if I can trade for Schoop in a few leagues.