Oak's Corner: Scary Story

The Week That Was

• After a rookie season where Rockies' Trevor Story pounded 27 homers in only 97 games before an injury ended his season prematurely, he flew up draft charts this offseason to an ADP of 30.3 in NFBC drafts. With the power explosion all over baseball this season, Story is one who hasn't taken advantage, hitting only 11 homers while batting a mere .218. Even the offensive haven of Coors Field, a significant reason for Story's elevated draft price, hasn't helped him this year, as he has hit only .224 at home with six homers and 15 RBI in 116 at-bats. The downside with Story always has been the swing and miss, and that issue has been only exacerbated this year with a sky-high 34.6 percent strikeout rate, good for the third-worst in all of baseball.

  The issue for Story has been that when he does make contact, it hasn't been hard like it was last season. His hard hit rate was a lofty 44.9 percent in 2016 but has crashed this year to only 31.5 percent. Further, Story's soft contact rate has risen five percent, and his infield fly rate has nearly doubled to 15 percent. I had hoped to see some bad luck and then therefore be optimistic when looking deeper at Story, but his struggles this half are real, and if he can't increase the hard contact, even Coors Field won't save his season with his strikeouts issues. Story indicated in the spring that his thumb had fully recovered from surgery for his torn UCL, but one has to wonder if that has possibly sapped some of his first half power. Coors does usually warm up in the summer, but Story is not someone on whom I'm looking to buy low at the moment. If you own him, I wouldn't even argue against sitting him on the road until he shows signs of being somewhere near the player he was in 2016.

• Jose Peraza also saw his name flying up the draft boards this offseason after Brandon Phillips was dealt to the Braves in February, freeing up Peraza for everyday playing time. In drafts held after March 1st, Peraza's ADP was 86 coming off his half-season in 2016 when he hit .324 with 24 stolen bases. Peraza has been a disappointment at the price so far in 2017, hitting only .253 with 15 stolen bases. The stolen bases have been fine, but definitely lower than what fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted him in the sixth to eighth rounds. Scooter Gennett and his 14 first-half homers have started to become a threat to Peraza's playing time, although the Reds indicated this week when Zack Cozart returned that Peraza would keep his spot.

  Even more concerning than Peraza's batting average dip is that his OBP sits at only .278, an extremely poor number for someone fantasy owners are relying on for stolen bases. Peraza only has five walks on the season in 208 at-bats. He only strikes out 14.7 percent of the time but, when he does, his hard contact rate is a poor 20.6 percent and his soft contact rate is up to 27.9 percent, both rates that put him among the five worst in all of MLB. Peraza is also hitting a lot less live drives than last season, as he is at 19.9 percent currently after a 27.5 percent line drive rate last year. If someone in your league needs steals, I would try and move Peraza now, as I just don't see his offense, especially his walks, getting him on base enough to steal a huge amount of bases and could very well see him lose his everyday at-bats at some point in the second half.

• Byron Buxton was a polarizing dude in drafts, but even as someone who thought he was drafted too high, I'm stunned about just how bad he has been in the first half of the season. In 80 games, Buxton is hitting .214 with just five homers and an absurdly low 15 RBI. For fantasy baseball, he has managed to toss in 16 stolen bases to help provide at least a touch of value in leagues. Buxton is still striking out at a severely high 30.6 percent rate, but at least that number is down five percent from 2016.

  The really damning aspect of Buxton's profile, especially for someone who strikes out that much, is his batted ball metrics. Buxton is checking in with a meager 25.2 percent hard contact rate while also sporting a 22.7 percent soft contact rate, both numbers that place him in the bottom 20 among all qualified hitters. Further, in addition to the strikeouts, which are obviously automatic outs, he is leading all of baseball in infield fly ball percentage at 21.4 percent. When you combine that with his strikeouts, more than half of his at-bats are ending in strikeouts or pop ups, which seems absolutely impossible but sure explains why he is hitting .214 on the season even with his excellent speed. He is also pulling the ball more than any hitter in baseball at a 55.8 percent rate. It's pretty incredible how many extremes flow through his profile. So he strikes out a ton, pops up a ton, produces a lot of soft contact and doesn't use the whole field? Sweet. I know his defense is elite and will keep him on the field, but that's a formula for one of the worst hitters in baseball. There are still many believers in Buxton, and if he throws together any kind of offensive flurry, I would use that to deal him in a second.

• Dellin Betances has been one of the top relievers in baseball over the past three seasons but is having a bit of an odd season so far in 2017. His strikeouts are still absolutely elite at 16.79 strikeouts per nine, which leads all qualified relievers. However, his walk rate also leads all relievers at a crazy 8.56 walks per nine. Betances had a bit of a walk issue over the last two seasons, but even those were walk rates that were less than half of his current number. He started the season on fire with only one earned run allowed over the first two months of the season, but a lot has changed since June 1st. In his last 10 innings, Betances has allowed nine earned runs while walking a ridiculous 17 batters in that span. With Aroldis Chapman back in the closer role, those of us who use Betances need his elite ratios and strikeouts to give him value even without saves. His walks have caused a significant issue for his WHIP, which now stands at 1.46 for the season. He becomes tough to use if he isn't providing wins, saves or WHIP, and I'm going to bench him until I see the control come off the current insane levels.
  

With no two-start pitchers next week due to the All Star Game, this week I'm looking for players who might help you with specific categories your team may need to make up ground in the second half.

Denard Span: After a slow start to the season, Span has caught fire lately and is someone who could help your team in batting average and runs, two categories that can be difficult to find on the waiver wire. He was a beast in June, hitting .374 while also scoring 21 runs, as the Giants offense finally started to score some runs. Span always maintains a solid contact rate, this year checking in with only a 12.4 percent strikeout rate, and he has managed to hit over .300 in two of the past three seasons. Span isn't going to provide much pop, as his hard hit rate is only 22.6 percent, but he's consistently around a .310 BABIP when combined with his contact rate gives him a nice batting average floor. If you find yourself struggling with a batting average drain at your fifth outfielder, Span is a nice sneaky pickup that might end up helping you out in two categories down the stretch.

Bruce Maxwell: In two catcher leagues, it can be tough to find a second catcher who doesn't crush your batting average; especially this season when it seems like any catcher with a pulse on the waiver wire is hitting .215. Maxwell is playing regularly against righties now that the A's designated Stephen Vogt for assignment. He isn't going to hit a lot of homers, but his batting average will be an asset in deeper leagues and maybe even in 12-teamers. In 2016, Maxwell hit .321 in 60 Triple-A games and then hit .283 in 33 games after getting called up by the A's. He has been a batting average asset again this season, hitting .286 in 25 Triple-A games, and after two hits on Thursday night, he's now at .305 in 20 games with the A's. If your team is covered in power but is struggling in batting average, Maxwell is the perfect remedy to get a batting average drain catcher out of the lineup for someone who will not only keep from hurting your average but could actually be an asset in that category.

Curtis Granderson: After a 30-homer campaign in 2016, Granderson slogged through the first two months of the season hitting only .201 with four homers in 174 at-bats. He flipped a switch on June 1st and has hit .313 with nine homers in his last 80 at-bats. Most impressively, Granderson has a 1.171 OPS since June 1st, which places him in the top five in OPS in all of baseball in that stretch. He isn't going to be a batting average asset as he has failed to break .240 in four of the last five seasons, but this is a guy who hit 56 homers over the last two seasons and is absolutely locked in right now. Granderson had missed a few games recently with a hip injury, but he was in the starting lineup Wednesday before the Mets were rained out, so he looks to be good to go. Granderson is someone to grab right now, as he's available in many leagues (he is only owned in 39.4 percent of NFBC 12-teamers) and he could help to aide a team in need of a second half power surge.

Trevor Cahill: Due to a lengthy stint on the DL, Cahill finds himself owned in only 55 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and is someone who could assist fantasy teams in ratios and strikeouts in the second half. In the current offensive climate, it's difficult to find any pitcher in free agency who is not going to blow up your ratios, not to mention one who's going to be an asset in those categories. Through his first eight starts (45.2 innings), Cahill has posted an exceptional 2.96 ERA to go along with a career high 10.84 strikeouts per nine. Cahill made his return from the DL on Tuesday in a tough spot in Cleveland and, while his start was cut short due to a limited pitch count, he did manage to throw 4.1 scoreless innings. I watched the game, and he looked very sharp for most of the start and I was quite impressed with his location and movement. The uptick in strikeouts are fully supported with a career high 13.2 percent strikeout rate, a number that, surprisingly, would put him in a tie for 10th place in in the majors (tied with Clayton Kershaw!) if he had enough innings to qualify for the leaderboards. Making Cahill even more intriguing is the fact that he gets to pitch half his games in Petco Park where he has only allowed one earned run so far this year in 18.1 innings. I consider Cahill an add in all leagues right now as he's someone to help right away in three pitching categories.

After an exceptional scoreless run through May and June that gave him a long leash on the closer job, Fernando Rodney has finally sputtered, blowing saves in each of his last two outings. After allowing three hits and a run to blow a save on Sunday, Rodney completely imploded against the Dodgers on Thursday night. Rodney entered with a three-run lead, and after allowing a single to Yasiel Puig, he proceeded to walk three batters in a row before allowing a game-tying single to Corey Seager. Walks are always an issue for Rodney, but he had limited them well recently before the meltdown on Thursday. Rodney still has a fairly firm grip on the job, but with the Diamondbacks in contention, if they see any further issues with Rodney, they could decide to test Archie Bradley in the role. Bradley has been exceptional all year with a 1.19 ERA to go along with a sparkling 45:8 K:BB ratio in 37.2 innings. Rodney is still fine for now, but if Bradley is available in your league, he is probably worth a small bid this week just in case Rodney can't right the ship rapidly.

With Cam Bedrosian back healthy, it was up in the air what the Angels would do at closer when Bud Norris returned from the DL last weekend. After one outing where Norris threw in the sixth inning, he slotted back into the ninth for a save opportunity on Wednesday against the Twins and converted it, striking out two while allowing no baserunners. Perhaps most telling in how the Angels will currently play the back end of the bullpen was that Bedrosian took the hill for the eighth inning of that game with a one-run lead. Norris has been surprisingly effective closing games so far for the Angels, posting a 2.29 ERA so far, while converting 12 of his 14 save opportunities. Bedrosian pretty clearly is the closer of the future for the Angels, but if anyone dropped Norris when he went on the DL, grab him right away, as he's the guy at the moment

With the A's likely sellers at the trade deadline, it's difficult to know who will be closing games for them the last two months, but the guy I want to own in that bullpen right now is Sean Doolittle. Santiago Casilla is the closer at the moment, but Doolittle is the far superior pitcher, and I have to think he's the guy the A's would like to see closing games for them in the final months of the season as they move toward 2018. Doolittle's big issue is always the health of his pitching arm, but while he has been on the mound this year, he has an incredible 27:2 K:BB ratio over 18.1 innings. He has had a bit of a homer issue with three allowed already, which has led to his inflated 3.93 ERA, but his 2.66 FIP could signal that better ratio days are ahead. Casilla does have 14 saves but he has blown four saves along the way, and his 3.45 walks per nine aren't ideal for a closer, especially one without a truly elite strikeout rate. In deeper leagues, I'm looking to grab Doolittle now, and as an A's fan, I'm hoping Bob Melvin gets the much better pitcher in the closer role for the final couple of months of the season.

Series of the Weekend

Royals at Dodgers: The two best teams in baseball since June 1st match up this weekend in Los Angeles. Everyone would know that one of those teams is the Dodgers, but the other team being the Royals is a pretty big surprise. The Royals are 22-10 since June 1st, and a team left for dead after a 7-16 April now find themselves only one game back of the first-place Indians as we head into the All Star Break. The Dodgers are an even better 25-8 since the start of June, as they continue to play exceptionally well and are off a four-run ninth inning rally to beat the Diamondbacks on Thursday night.

The Royals were by far the worst offense in baseball in April, posting a putrid .605 OPS in the month as a team. The offensive bounce back has been sparked by Lorenzo Cain (.313 with nine homers since June 1st) and Mike Moustakas who has mashed with 12 homers since the start of June. Moustakas has been especially smoking as of late, with big flies in six of his last eight games. Also aiding the Royals resurgence is Eric Hosmer who, after hitting only .225 in April, is now sporting a .313 batting average to go with a career high .855 OPS. Rounding out the middle of the suddenly powerful Royals lineup is catcher Salvador Perez, who has 17 home runs in the first half of the season. The Royals surging offense does miss facing Alex Wood and his 1.67 ERA this weekend, but they do get the pleasure of facing Mr. Clayton Kershaw on Sunday. The clash of the Dodgers pitchers and their MLB leading 3.18 team ERA and the Royals offense should be a lot of fun this weekend, something I wouldn't have guessed in April I would say at any point of the season.

While the pitching staff has been the hallmark of the Dodgers exceptional first half, their offense is no slouch. The Dodgers rank fourth in baseball in both runs scored and OPS, led by rookie sensation Cody Bellinger and his 24 homers and .949 OPS. While Bellinger has rightfully garnered many of the headlines for the Dodgers, 2016 Rookie of the Year Corey Seager has 13 homers with a .906 OPS, and third baseman Justin Turner is hitting a mere .380 at the halfway point of the season. Also, we can't forget about the out of nowhere story of Chris Taylor who has flat out forced his way into regular playing time with 10 homers, 10 steals and a .877 over 234 at-bats. The Dodgers will miss Cy Young candidate (yes, seriously) Jason Vargas, and while they do face Danny Duffy Sunday, they could do a lot of eating on Friday and Saturday against Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel, who both come in with ERA's over 4.40 on the season. Although in Kennedy's case, he has pitched well lately allowing two runs or fewer in his last four starts.

It's not often that we get the two teams playing at their best for such a long stretch match up in a weekend series, but it should be entertaining and will be a great measuring stick to give the Royals an idea of where they stand heading into the second half.