Regan's Rumblings: Do We Trust These 10 Pitchers?

Like many of you, I'm using the All-Star break to take a deep breath, go outside, pay more attention to the family, get some "real work" done, and of course to reassess my fantasy teams. Part of that assessment falls on the pitching side in evaluating whether I have enough starting pitching and whether some of mine are, in fact, for "real". We've all ridden guys for a string of nice starts hoping we have a solid every-week pitcher for the rest of the year, only to see them implode and get cut for the next big thing on the waiver wire. Here are 10 starters who have been pitching well in recent starts.

We'll look at the underlying metrics and try and come to a conclusion around what to expect going forward this year.

Stats are for the last 30 days.

Jacob Faria (TB)

3 wins, 9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 2.25 ERA, 4.09 xFIP

Faria is doing what I figured top prospect Brent Honeywell or even former top prospect Jose De Leon would be doing by now, and that is providing great production at the back of the Tampa Bay rotation. All six of Faria's starts have been of the quality start variety and he's showing even better control than he did in Triple-A earlier this year (3.4 BB/9 in 11 starts). Faria averages a so-so 92.1 mph with his fastball, but he's not generating a lot of hard contact because all three of his secondary offerings (slider, curve, and change) all grade as above-average offerings. He's doing a great job mixing his pitches and keeping guys off balance, and even his 11.7% swinging strike rate is well above the 10.4% league average. We weren't sure Faria was here to stay when he was called up in June, but the Matt Andriese hip injury opened the door and now, Faria looks to be a permanent member of the rotation.

Aaron Nola (PHI)

3 wins, 10.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.90 ERA, 3.20 xFIP

I was pretty down on Nola this spring, as his first full season in 2016 consisted of 20 starts with a 4.78 ERA, while ending the season on the DL with a sprained UCL. Yes, that's the diagnosis that often leads to Tommy John surgery, but a PRP injection appears to have done the trick. Those injections have led to mixed results (see: Garrett Richards), but it seems to have done the trick so far for Nola. Notably, Nola has seen improved velocity this year (92.0 mph average fastball versus 90.1 in 2016). Even more notable is the increased confidence Nola is showing in his changeup, a pitch that grades out as above average and a pitch that Nola is throwing 15.2% of the time versus just 8.7% in 2016. Nola is a former #7 overall pick (2014), so he certainly has the pedigree to be putting up these types of numbers.

Zack Godley (ARI)

2 wins, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.81 ERA, 3.51 xFIP

A former 10th-round pick, Godley has never been on the radar as a top prospect, and after the now 27-year-old posted a 6.39 ERA in 74.2 innings for Arizona last year, not much was expected again in 2017. Godley this year has bumped up and down from Triple-A Reno to Arizona a couple of times this year, but he's now locked in as the team's No. 4 or 5 starter. In 11 big league starts, Godley has a surprising 2.58 ERA with an 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. The control is a surprise given his 5.5 BB/9 in Triple-A this year and 4.2 mark at that level in 2016. He's never going to be an elite strikeout guy, but with that control and command, it's allowed Godley to post an elite 14.1% swinging strike rate. In addition, his 59.5% ground ball rate helps mitigate pitching half his games in a hitter's park, and after posting an ugly 8.21 ERA in 41.1 innings at home last year, Godley is at 2.51 in Arizona in 2017. A .238 BABIP suggests coming regression, but he appears to be doing enough things differently and well that an ERA in the 3.75 range the rest of the way is possible.

Patrick Corbin (ARI)

1 win, 10.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.07 ERA, 2.83 xFIP

Arizona has the second-best winning percentage in the National League behind division-mate Los Angeles, and with Godley and now Corbin on this list, we're seeing why. We haven't seen Corbin be nearly this good since the first half of 2013, as 2014 Tommy John surgery and ineffectiveness resulted in him being pretty much an afterthought headed into 2017. When Corbin then opened the year with a 5.38 ERA in his first 13 starts, his ownership rate continued to plummet. Now in his last five starts, Corbin has a 3.07 ERA and solid 33:7 K:BB in 29.1 innings, though a lack of run support leaves him 1-3 in those starts. Two things to note in his last five starts versus his first 13:
First 13 starts: 92.6 mph average fastball, using slider 33.9% of the time
Last 5 starts: 93.1 mph average fastball, using slider 37% of the time
He's throwing harder and using his slider more, and that combination along with elite-level control appears to be working. I'm not completely convinced he's now a sub-3.00 ERA guy who is going to stay healthy all year, but I'm open to the possibility that happens.

Jimmy Nelson (MIL)

4 wins, 10.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.03 ERA, 2.88 xFIP

At 28, Nelson appears to be finally delivering on the promise that made him the team's #1 pitching prospect circa 2013. His ERA sits at 3.30 overall, and he's been even better as you can see in recent starts. Nelson isn't really throwing any harder this year, but he's dropped his BB/9 from 4.3 to 2.2 year over year while seeing his K/9 rate spike from 2016's 7.0 to 9.7 in 2017. Noting in his batted ball data has noticeably changed, but improved command and control have led to a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate and if anything, his .337 BABIP could hold off any regression given he posted sub-.300 marks in that category in each of the last two seasons. We have Nelson ranked as the 42nd starting pitcher in our rest of season rankings, but I can easily see him in the top 25 or so.

Mike Fiers (HOU)

2 wins, 9.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2.25 ERA, 4.28 xFIP

Owner of a fastball that averages just 89.6 mph, Fiers has shown flashes of brilliance since his 2011 MLB debut, but he's yet to sustain a consistent level of performance over an extended period of time. The main cause of that has been the home run ball, and that's been an issue again this year given his 1.8 HR/9 rate. He's also taken a step back with his control, as after posting a strong 2.2 BB/9 in 2016, Fiers has regressed to a 3.6 mark so far in 2017. More homers and more walks isn't the best of combinations. On the plus side, Fiers' 47.6% GB% would easily be a career-high should it hold, and his 20.2% HR/FB% should in theory trend down. He is striking more guys out this season (8.4 K/9) than last (7.2 K/9), but the walks and home runs are going to keep me from buying in, even though he does have a great offense supporting him.

Rich Hill (LAD)

2 wins, 11.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.60 ERA, 3.77 xFIP

After walking seven batters in a May 24th start against the Cardinals, Hill reportedly made some mechanical adjustments, and save for a June 15 start in Cleveland (4 IP, 7 ER), he's been excellent ever since. In his last four starts, Hill has a 1.38 ERA and 35:6 K:BB in 26 innings, giving us the Rich Hill we were expecting after he posted a 2.12 ERA in 20 starts last season. The blister issues appear to be behind them, though the possibility they resurface is very much there given Hill has made over 20 starts just once in his career and won't reach that mark in 2017. Hill has top-15 SP potential the rest of the way, though he remains riskier than most.

Drew Pomeranz (BOS)

2 wins, 7.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.91 ERA, 4.81 xFIP

Pomeranz had a 2.47 ERA in the NL and a 4.59 mark after coming over to the Red Sox at the deadline last season. So not a huge surprise that he showed regression in the move from Petco Park to the AL East, but Pomeranz is faring well this year, posting a 3.60 ERA overall with a 9.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Those last two marks have regressed in recent starts, so the 2.91 ERA is probably a bit of a mirage. As a former #5 overall pick (2010), I do like Pomeranz's pedigree, but he can also be a bit wild at times, and I'm at a loss to explain why left-handed batters are hitting .329 against him. I'd probably sell if I could find a buyer.

R.A. Dickey (ATL)

2 wins, 8.2 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 3.09 ERA, 4.35 xFIP

A 69:40 K:BB in 104.1 innings is ugly, but Dickey has fared better lately, so perhaps there's some mileage left in his 42-year-old arm. He's about to top 2,000 career innings, which is pretty incredible given his career really wasn't relevant until his age-35 season. Dickey has allowed just three runs (no HR) over 27 innings in his last four starts, with two of those coming against the Nationals and Brewers, a pair of good hitting teams. Prior to that run, Dickey had a 5.35 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, but perhaps he's figured some things out. I am skeptical, but if you need a streaming option, you could do worse.

Dan Straily (MIA)

3 wins, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 2.78 ERA, 4.25 xFIP

Straily has added a full mph+ to his fastball, taking it above 90 mph on average, but where Straily finds his success is obviously not by blowing guys away. He's dropped his walk rate for the second consecutive year to 2.5 BB/9, a career best. Straily has allowed more fly balls than grounders, resulting in a 1.2 HR/9, but the fact that Marlins park has proved to be very pitcher-friendly has helped. To that, Straily has a 2.31 ERA at home and a 4.27 mark on the road, so that's something to keep in mind when considering him as a streaming option or a cheaper DFS play. Straily has reached 100+ innings for the third consecutive year, and in each of those seasons, his ERA is under 4.00. He's not an elite option by any means, but if you can avoid using him on the road against tough offenses, he'll provide value.