The Z Files: Reviewing Rest-of-Season Pitcher Projections

Last week we looked at some rest-of-season hitting rankings requiring some possible review. Today we'll do the same for starting pitching.

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (Rank: 11)

There's several questions with Wood. First, as well as he's pitched, keeping up this pace isn't reasonable so where will regression land? Related is Wood's workload was down last season, so there's some concern if his skills will suffer down the stretch. Finally, along those same lines, the Dodgers may elect to skip Wood a couple of times to keep him as fresh as possible for the playoffs.

Wood's skills are elite, which includes doing an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard, integral to success in today's power climate. There's a good chance the Dodgers do monitor his innings, which should aid in keeping the skills sharp. An ERA around 3.00 seems reasonable. Most ace starters will toss 90-100 more innings this season, so pegging Wood for 80 or so accounts for some innings management. The combo lands him at 11, which seems about right. Since Wood isn't likely to be shut down completely, he'll still be relevant in head-to-head formats that hold playoffs in September.

Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (Rank: 15)

Lester could be the most difficult starter to rank for the final two-plus months. Even before his blow-up entering the break, I was concerned. There's no one thing, he's just not as sharp overall as in past seasons. That said, he's a seasoned veteran so if anyone can flip the switch, it's the savvy southpaw. I look at the ranking, which puts Lester as a late SP1 in NFBC-type leagues, and shake my head since there's no way I'd draft him in a hypothetical second-half league. However, a 3.56 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP seems plausible. For me, he deserves the benefit of the doubt with respect to performance, but not enough to pay for. The practical application would be if I'm trying to acquire pitching help down the stretch, I wouldn't pay full boat for Lester, but may think about taking a chance at a discount.

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants (Rank: 19)

Mr. Reliable hasn't lived up to his moniker lately. Well, that's what I call him, others probably have another nickname or two after his sluggish first half. Cueto's walks are up, suggesting his control is off from previous seasons, but the real issue is homers. This is a common thread as home runs aren't up linearly among pitchers, some are seeing their number of long balls allowed increase more than others. The question is which hurlers fix what ails them. Look at Masahiro Tanaka, for instance, as he seems to have found the elixir.

Projecting Cueto for a 3.75 ERA splits the difference between what was originally expected and where he's at. With some, I feel like they'll either figure it out or they won't. They're either a 3.00 ERA guy or a 4.50 guy. With Cueto, I'm torn, hence the seemingly cop-out projection. However, keep in mind many view projections as an over/under point where the number represents a 50 percent chance the performance is better or worse. That's where I am with Cueto; it's a coin flip which way he goes.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (Rank: 26)

The story for Arrieta is the same as for Lester, but down a notch in terms of tier. What's eye-opening is with all the pitching injuries and underperformers, an ERA near 4.00 with an WHIP around 1.25 is an SP2 or SP3 in the current landscape. There's still a lot of ball left to play, but it sure seems like we're going to have to recalibrate relative expectations.

Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals (Rank: 31)

Vargas' low ERA is all about limiting homers. The question is if he'll sustain a rate below 1.0 HR/9. If he does, there's no reason to expect significant regression the rest of the season. This is strictly narrative, but Vargas works more in the middle of the zone, in terms of pitch height, than most hurlers. An argument can be tendered this is conducive to minimizing homers since he isn't pitching low, where the uppercut swing can do its things, nor is he living up in the zone, where the sheer volume of fly balls result in homers. Also, since Vargas tops out in the mid-eighties, the hitter needs to provide more power than they would facing someone registering 95 mph on the gun. Vargas' lack of strikeouts and lower win potential turn me off in mixed leagues, but I'm not expecting a huge ERA spike.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (Rank: 35)

This is another great example of needing to reset baseline expectations. We can argue if Verlander's rest-of-season 4.04 ERA is fair, but regardless, an ERA in that neighborhood translates to a mid-thirties ranking. That's steroid-era mindset.

Verlander is a lot like Cueto in that we're middling the difference between original expectations and year-to-date performance. I have a better feeling Verlander finds it again, but am still reticent to express that in the projection.

His velocity is fine and he's not allowing homers. Verlander's primary issue is a bloated walk rate. After a week to gather himself and recharge, I can easily see Verlander improving his control. If he comes out of the break firing on all cylinders, I'll make the call to drop his expected ERA into the mid-threes, maybe a touch higher.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (Rank: 51)

I'll come out and say it. It frustrates the heck out of me that some are making a lot of money in DFS stacking against Teheran when he pitches at home. Actually, I could care less about the money. What grinds my gears is the chest-pounding nature some display, stating unequivocally Teheran can't pitch in SunTrust Park. Obviously, his first 46.1 innings in the venue have been an unabashed nightmare, but they're by no means predictive of the next 46.

That said, it is true Teheran has a proclivity for aiding left-handed power while the park looks to be homer-friendly for lefty pop. This is a concern, but not enough reason to categorically decree Teheran stinks at home.

Other than the tangible splits facing lefties, I'm admittedly worried SunTrust could be in Teheran's head. Please note, I'm worried, not convinced there's irreconcilable differences. Last season's campaign is likely on the high side of Teheran's skills as opposed to baseline expectation. However, he's not as bad as he's appeared so far in 2017. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm expecting a rebound to 2015 levels, and I'm using him in DFS for his home start against the Cubs next week.

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (Rank: 53)

Earlier, Tanaka's improvement in allowing homers was cited, though he did allow the Brewers to leave the yard twice before the break. Previously, he went three straight starts with serving up a long ball.

One reason for the drop in homers could be Tanaka began throwing more curves and sliders, pitches integral to his success. They're also the offerings that stress his frayed elbow, so perhaps he opted not to throw as many, hoping to delay what most feel is inevitable. Maybe he decided it was better to risk further hurting his elbow but get the job done than get lit up with less than his best pitches.

I'm cautiously optimistic for Tanaka for the rest of the season. It's not fully reflected in his rank, as he can opt to go back to more fastballs, but even with the blip against Milwaukee last time, I'm expecting Tanaka to do a better job minimizing homers.