FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.

PITCHER

Jon Lester, CHC at CWS ($23,100): Most of the high-end pitchers (Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer) are in the early games so the choices are slim for the night slate. Still, Lester is worth the money, coming off a couple nice starts in which he totaled 16 strikeouts. He gets the White Sox, who have a bad .306 wOBA against lefties and one of the worst K%s at 25.2 since the beginning of June.

Chris O'Grady, MIA vs. CIN ($11,200): I could go Chris Archer ($21,600) here, but what's the fun in using the two highest-priced pitchers? O'Grady hasn't fallen below 10 fantasy points in his three starts, so there is some safety there. The hope is that he doesn't walk six guys again like he did last outing against Cincy. Even then, the Reds have bad numbers against lefties with a .298 wOBA and 23.2 K% since June 1.

INFIELD

Matt Carpenter, STL vs. ARI ($6,900): Most of Zack Godley's success has come through strikeouts in his last couple starts, allowing 10 runs while punching out 19. With that being the case, Carpenter's 11.3 K% against righties in July (62 at-bats) is a place to turn. Carpenter is also much better against righties overall with a .363 wOBA for the season.

Carlos Asuaje, SD vs. NYM ($6,400): Asuaje has been a nice boost for the Padres, especially against righties. His .391 wOBA in the last 66 at-bats will come in handy, as Chris Flexen is making his major-league debut, getting the call from Double-A. Asuaje is cheap and has hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games.

Willson Contreras, CHC at CWS ($9,300): Contreras has better numbers against lefties for the season, but his wOBA has jumped to .409 with a .321 ISO against righties in July. That's reason enough to go after Mike Pelfrey, who has a 4.44 xFIP against righties and hasn't made it more than five innings in his last five starts.

OUTFIELD

Jon Jay, CHC at CWS ($6,300): Jay doesn't have a ton of power, but comes in with a .425 wOBA against righties in his last 39 at-bats and gets an even better matchup Thursday. Pelfrey is worse against lefties with a .368 wOBA allowed and 6.52 xFIP.

Michael Conforto, NYM at SD ($10,500): Not many have been better than Conforto against righties in July with a .570 wOBA and .531 ISO (37 at-bats). That's not a huge sample size, but he still has a .429 wOBA and .312 ISO for the season. Luis Perdomo has been hard to figure out, although most of his struggles come against lefties with a .379 wOBA allowed, 5.18 xFIP and small 11.7 K%.

A.J. Pollock, ARI at STL ($10,400): Despite going 0-for-5 Wednesday night, I still have plenty of confidence in Pollock, who had two hits or more in his previous four starts. Pollock's .490 wOBA and .341 ISO in his last 46 at-bats are hard to ignore (prior to Wednesday). Luke Weaver hasn't made a start in the majors this year and is someone to take a chance against after varied results last season.

UTILITY

J.T. Realmuto, MIA vs. CIN ($7,200): In the last meeting between Realmuto and Robert Stephenson, Realmuto blasted two homers and doubled. Expecting that kind of production again may be a stretch, but Realmuto still has a solid .415 wOBA and .231 ISO against righties in his last 58 at-bats. Stephenson gave up five runs and eight hits in the loss to the Marlins and there's no reason to believe he'll be any better.

Tyler Moore, MIA vs. CIN ($6,400): To save some money, Moore should return to the starting lineup Thursday, and hoping to catch Stephenson on another bad day isn't a bad idea. Moore has been better against righties this season, so his .381 wOBA and .339 ISO should help (62 at-bats). Stephenson struggles against both sides of the plate, but allows a .419 wOBA and 5.04 xFIP against righties.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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