Oak's Corner: Nola's on an Impressive Run

The Week That Was

• Didi Gregorius had a breakout 2016 season where he more than doubled his career high in homers and topped his career-highs in almost every other stat, but his ADP fell past 300 (in NFBC drafts conducted after March 1st) after a shoulder injury in the WBC caused him to start the year on the DL. He missed the first four weeks of the season, but he has rewarded owners who had the patience to wait for his return with an even better 2017. Through 76 games, Gregorius is hitting .307 with 16 homers and 48 RBI. While he isn't hitting the ball harder in the last two seasons (I was surprised to see his hard hit rate is only about 23 percent in 2017) than he did in 2015 (his first with the Yankees), he is elevating the ball more as he is hitting 41.6 percent fly balls this year as opposed to 34.1 percent in 2015.

  My initial take is that Didi must be taking advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium, but he has actually hit 67 points higher this season on the road with nine of his 16 homers away from New York after pretty even home and road splits in 2016. His ability to make contact (14.1 percent strikeout rate) helps his batting average, but he's swinging and missing more this season as his swinging strike rate has jumped three points to 12.4 percent. I love Didi as a player as he's also fun to watch on defense, but I'm having trouble being a full buyer with the low hard hit rate. He does have almost two years of stats to back it up and has been especially on fire as of late with 13 homers since June 1st. Right now, I like the idea of shopping Didi at his peak value to try and cash in on his season so far, maybe to the Carlos Correa owner who's likely desperate for a shortstop.

• After a tough start to the year, Phillies' Aaron Nola is on an impressive run. Through his first eight starts (mixed in with DL stint for a lower back strain), Nola had a 4.76 ERA including four starts where he allowed four or more runs and also four starts where he couldn't go more than five innings. Since then, in seven starts, Nola has a 1.49 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 48 innings and he has thrown at least six innings in every outing, lowering his ERA on the season to 3.17. The recent strikeout surge has pushed his strikeout rate to 9.69 K/9, on par with his 2016 season.

  Nola's skills look similar to his 2016 season when his ERA was 4.78, but in that year he suffered from a high .334 BABIP and an absurdly low 60.6 percent strand rate. In comparing the two seasons, it's interesting to note that his FIP's in the two years (3.08 in 2016 and 3.25 this year) are quite similar. Nola's swinging strike rate has jumped into the double digits at 10.4 percent and while his ground ball rate has dropped, it remains strong at 48.5 percent. Nola's most recent start was the most impressive one in the run as he threw six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the juggernaut offense of the Astros. I love what I see from Nola right now and not only see him as a strong hold this year but someone to try and make a trade for in keeper leagues as his price figures to rise between now and next draft season.
  

• After an exceptional two-month stretch in May and June with an ERA in the low 2.00's, St. Louis' Carlos Martinez has hit a speed bump in July with a 5.90 ERA in 29 innings. If he had one huge blowup in the month that we could toss out, I'd be fine with that, but he now has three starts of his last five where he has allowed five earned runs. Most concerning to me is that the strikeouts have dropped to 7.14 K/9, way below his mark on the year of 9.58 K/9. Homers also have been a big issue with seven big flies allowed in his five July starts to push his mark on the year over 1.00 HR/9 on the season; a mark he has never been above in any prior season.

  Martinez has been solid on the season as a whole, and he's one of those guys who seems unhittable when you watch him pitch, but I'm a bit concerned about this recent stretch, particularly how hittable he has been with a .303 average against this month, and July is the first month all season where he has allowed more hits than innings pitched. I'm a firm hold on C-Mart right now, as I have to keep his stuff from the last two seasons in mind, but I'll be watching his next two to three starts closely, particularly to see if he can fix the homer-itis and regain his strikeout pitch.

• For everyone who said it was only a matter of time before Rangers' Jonathan Lucroy got it going this year, despite his awful secondary stats, I present you his July where he's on fire, hitting .175 with zero homers. Yea, I'm sure the hot streak is just around the corner.

• Kansas City's Eric Hosmer was someone I wasn't a big fan of at his ADP of 108 in the spring. I didn't think he hit enough fly balls to warrant the 2016 home run bump and I was a little bit worried about the strikeout jump combined with the batting average drop. I figured the batting average was going to stay down if he continued to sell out for power, but he has sure proved me wrong. After a monster six RBI game against the Tigers on Wednesday, Hosmer is now hitting .319 with 16 homers, 62 runs and 54 RBI. Further, he has dropped his strikeout rate down to 16.2 percent while increasing his ISO to a career-high .183.

  Having noted all the positives, I'm strongly of the belief that Hosmer is a sell high right now. His hard hit rate has dropped to 30 percent, and he's still hitting only 23.4 percent fly balls. His line drive rate has jumped up significantly from 2016, which helps the batting average, but a career-high .352 BABIP has helped also. With the average number of balls he hits hard and the lack of fly balls, I think the homer pace is going to slow down the rest of the way and I think the batting average comes down with it. It's always tough to trade first baseman since everyone has good ones (especially this year), but if you can deal Hosmer off his current stat line, I would do it, as I think this is the absolute peak.

• The Chris Taylor phenomenon has been a fun story, but where the heck did this come from? Taylor had some good seasons in the minors, but in 2015 and 2016 when called up to the majors, he struggled to hit for any average and displayed absolutely zero power. Taylor has been an absolute godsend for the Dodgers in 2017, hitting .320 with 12 homers and 12 stolen bases. He initially filled in mostly for Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner, but Taylor has now locked down an everyday job and is even leading off for the best team in baseball. His eligibility at second base, third base and the outfield brightens his star even more.

  First, on the positive side, Taylor is able to take a walk with a 10.1 percent walk rate so far this year and his hard hit rate is pretty solid at nearly 34 percent. But the negatives are pretty glaring also, starting with the fact that Taylor strikes out too much for a nonpower hitter with a current 27.5 percent K Rate. And of course, the big glaring number is the insanely high .427 BABIP that is going to have to correct to some extent as the season progresses. Further, his HR/FB rate of 19.4 percent is so far off any other number he has ever shown that it's hard not to think that it's going to have to move down significantly also. Of course, in terms of lineups, he is leading off for the 71-31 (wow!) Dodgers, so if he can keep it together to at least some degree that keeps him in that spot, it will be a big boost to the runs scored stat. Taylor is probably a hard guy to trade right now since most people likely are waiting for the other shoe to drop, but if you can get a solid offer for him by playing up the positional eligibility, his current stats and his lineup spot, I think it's imperative that you pull the trigger on any solid offer.
  

Paul Blackburn: Blackburn has been a nice surprise for the A's (and fantasy owners in deeper mixed or AL-only leagues) thus far with a 2.25 ERA over five starts and 32 innings. Blackburn is scheduled for two starts this week and they look very nice on paper with a home start against the Giants (The Bay Bridge Series should really be electric this year!) and a road start against the Angels. Blackburn has managed to suppress hard contact very nicely so far with a hard hit rate of only 24.8 percent and also has a nice ground ball rate at 54.5 percent. The two starts this and the ground ball rate almost make me want to pull the trigger in deeper leagues, but I just cannot do it despite the fantastic ERA thus far.

I just can't get away from the ridiculously low 3.38 K/9 rate, as he has punched out only 12 guys in 32 innings. His ERA has been helped by an extremely low .214 BABIP and one glance at his 4.66 FIP was enough to start to scare me away. With the complete dearth of strikeouts, everything just has to be too perfect for him to work out, and with the A's struggling to win games, that is another category he's likely to help out in. The swinging strike rate of only 5.7 percent confirms that the strikeouts are not coming anytime soon and I am passing on Blackburn this week in 12 and 15 teamers.

Luke Weaver: Weaver is a tough one to decide on a bid price this week due to the uncertainty with his role with the Cardinals. Weaver started Thursday night in place of the injured Adam Wainwright and struggled a bit, allowing four runs to the Diamondbacks over five innings. Weaver was actually really good most of the outing but had a four batter stretch in the fourth inning where he allowed a double and two walks that were followed by a J.D. Martinez grand slam. Weaver has been absolutely electric in Triple-A so far this season posting a sparkling 1.91 ERA over 66 innings, a season after compiling a 1.40 ERA over 77 Double-A innings. The ERA has been fully supported by his strikeouts and walks as he sports a 9.41 K/9 to go with a 1.91 BB/9.

The issue for Weaver has been finding a spot in the Cardinals rotation, as there has even been talk about using him out of the bullpen late in games. Wainwright has a back injury, and while those can linger, especially for a veteran, the Cardinals are optimistic that he will miss just one start, which could send Weaver right back down to the minors. Weaver is owned in 65 percent of NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues, but owned in only in 8 percent of 12-team NFBC leagues. If you have an available roster spot or an easy drop, I really like taking a stab on Weaver as Wainwright could have a setback and let's face it, pitchers do get hurt, and he could very rapidly find another spot in the Cardinals rotation. He has enough upside to significantly help a fantasy team down the stretch if he could just find his way into the rotation and I am willing to roster him for a couple of weeks and see if that opportunity opens up. His less than stellar stat line on Thursday night plus the possible pending demotion should keep his FAAB price down, and I'll look to grab him wherever I have an open spot.

A Closer Look

Last week we discussed the White Sox trading their closer, and this week the Padres were the next squad that make a deal involving their closer as Brandon Maurer was shipped to Kansas City in a six-player trade. In the current moment, All-Star Brand Hand takes over as the closer, but there are strong rumors that Hand also could be moved before the trade deadline. If the Padres end up keeping Hand, he's obviously very attractive with his 11.72 K/9 strikeout rate and 2.04 ERA, but everyone in your league already knows that. The real question is who could be in line for saves in San Diego for the last two months if Hand does move to greener (well, at least baseball wise) pastures.

The guy I would look to grab this weekend in free agency even if Hand is not dealt by this weekend is Kirby Yates. The 30-year-old has bounced around a bit in his career, but he has quietly had an exceptional season in relief for the Friars. Through 33.1 innings with the Padres, he has posted a 1.89 ERA with an exceptional 13.8 K/9 strikeout rate while only walking 2.4 batters per nine. Yates does give up a lot of fly balls, which has led to a 1.57 HR/9 homer rate, but he does get to pitch half his games in Petco Park, which should help him with the homers a bit. The strikeout to walk ratio makes Yates an intriguing option in a bullpen that won't have a lot of good pitchers from which to choose to close games. It'd be surprising if Hand were not dealt, so I'm grabbing Yates where I can this weekend.

Series of the Weekend

Royals @ Red Sox. This promises to be a very fun series this weekend as the leaders in the AL East take on the surging Royals who currently find themselves as the second wild card but only two games behind the Indians in the AL Central. The Royals have won eight in a row and visit a Red Sox team that is only 11-12 in July despite a fantastic team ERA of 3.13 in the month. In a stat that likely will be shocking to many, the Red Sox offense has been freaking brutal in July and currently stand dead last in all of baseball with a team OPS of .660.

Dustin Pedroia has carried the Red Sox offense in July with a .351 average and 25 RBI, but the rest of the offense has been asleep this month. Jackie Bradley, Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts are all under .250 for the month and very few have been worse than Mitch Moreland who is hitting .136 with zero homers in July. Looking to spark their stagnant offense, the Red Sox called up 20-year-old prospect Rafael Devers who already has 20 homers across Double and Triple-A this year and they also traded for utility man Eduardo Nunez and his .308 average and 18 stolen bases. The Sox will try and get back on track against the surprisingly elite Jason Vargas and the newly acquired Trevor Cahill who has also been a surprise success story in 2017. The Sox will look to feast on Sunday as they get to face Jason Hammel and his bloated 4.81 ERA.

The Royals still find themselves in the bottom 10 in runs scored and team OPS due to their rough start to the season, but those struggles have faded fast in July. The Royals are third in baseball in runs scored in July and also rank in the top ten in OPS. The red-hot Eric Hosmer (detailed above) has led the charge with a 1.030 OPS in July to go along with six homers, but the real sneaky Royals story this month has been the offensive contribution of Whit Merrifield. Merrifield has been fantastic in July (not to mention a fantasy baseball monster) hitting .333 with five homers and eight stolen bases to spark the Royals from atop the order. Mike Moustakas has been a key cog for the Royal offensive resurgence, smoking eight homers in July while hitting .305. This offense was left dead by many in mid-May, but they are just on fire right now with 63 runs scored during this eight-game win streak including two 16 run explosions in that stretch. The Royals catch a break by missing Chris Sale this weekend, but they do see David Price who had been surging recently until a hiccup this week against the Angels, [Editor's note, Price has been placed on the 10-day DL with elbow inflammation and won't be pitching this weekend.] and the always intriguing Eduardo Rodriguez who is trying to regain his early season form after a six-week stint on the DL.