Oak's Corner: Is Jay Bruce a Keeper?

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Updated on August 4, 2017 6:21PM EST

We all love this crazy game of fantasy baseball. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here writing this column every week and if you didn't, you wouldn't bother to read it or subscribe to RotoWire. It is fun and extremely challenging every step of the way, but it sure can be frustrating. I always preach (probably to an annoying degree) when it comes to fantasy baseball, it's important to get neither too high during the highs nor too low during the lows. I regularly stress both these extremes, whether it is to someone leading a large overall contest in July or to someone who might be in 11th place in their league in May.

Of course, we all have passion for this game and care a lot, which is good – that's what makes it rewarding when you win, but I failed to follow my own advice on Tuesday. I sat down in my office excited for a full slate of games with a bunch of NFBC Main Event pitchers I own on the hill and within about half an hour proceeded to watch Carlos Carrasco blow a 5-0 lead and not escape the second inning, Erasmo Ramirez blow a 5-0 lead and not escape the fourth, and Patrick Corbin give up the first homer of Jon Lester's career for his 7th and 8th runs of the game. By the time Sean Manaea gave up five runs in the first inning to the brutal Giants offense, I was convinced

I finally turned off the games for the night, did something else and I slowly realized that while it stung my teams for sure, one bad night isn't going to lose a season, and there are many more nights of season left. With passion comes emotion, but I suppose I have to listen to my own advice sometimes and try and stay away from the extreme ups or downs of this roller coaster season. I figured that was a good reminder as we come to the stretch run and especially with anyone competing in any high stakes leagues as every run, strikeout and stolen base feels like it carries significance. Enjoy the ride, because being in the mix for your league or some sort of bigger prize is why we play in the first place.

The Week That Was

After back-to-back years (2014 and 2015) where he hit under .230, it looked like Jay Bruce might be done as a valuable fantasy asset. He bounced back well in 2016, hitting 33 homers while lifting his average to .250, but he has taken it up another notch in 2017. After a nice mid-week trip to Denver, Bruce is now hitting .263 with 29 homers through only 99 games. Bruce appears certain to fly by his career high of 34 homers and seems very likely to top 100 RBI for only the second time in his career. While Bruce's strikeout rate of 22.7 percent is a bit down from his career average, it's pretty much in line with his career numbers as is his 8.5 percent walk rate.
The most drastic change with Bruce this season comes from his batted ball profile. When Bruce bounced back in 2016, he did so with a career-high 38.2 percent hard hit rate, but he has blown that number out of the water this year at 43.1 percent, which puts him 10th in all of baseball. Bruce has combined that with a career-high fly ball rate of 48 percent, which can be directly linked to the best home run pace of his career. He has been able to change his batted ball profile without sacrificing his contact rate and it has led to the best season of 10-year career, and I am a firm hold on him wherever I own him and am hoping he can get himself to 40 homers before we're done.
I wrote about Andrew McCutchen in early May and expressed concern about his early start based on his batted ball profile, specifically the lack of hard hit balls. Well, McCutchen has allayed any concerns I could possibly have had and has been a completely different hitter in the last two months. Since June 1st, Cutch is hitting an absurd .370 in 184 at bats to go along with 14 homers, 44 runs and 42 RBI. Incredibly, his batting average, runs and RBIs are all top six in MLB in that span and the homers are top 15. It doesn't take any breaking down of stats to know that he's been one of the five best fantasy players since June 1st, but what happened?
Well, everything kind of happened. His walks have risen drastically in the last two months days from they were the first two months and his strikeouts have dropped just as much. His 29 percent hard hit rate of April is a thing of the past as he pushed that number up to a very strong 38.5 percent rate since the start of May. The stolen bases are never going back to early career levels, but with nine swipes, he has already exceeded 2016 and will soon pass his total of 11 from 2015. After a rough 2016 where he struck out a career-high 21.6 percent of the time, his rough first six weeks of the season had to be a concern, but one has to give McCutchen a ton of credit as he has found his old game and looks to have a great shot to surpass his career-high 31 homers from 2012.
This Jimmy Nelson breakout season is one that would have been very tough to predict in the preseason. After a decent 2015 where Nelson posted a 4.11, he was a mess in 2016, as his strikeouts fell to 7.03 K/9, his walks rose to 4.32 BB/9 and his ERA ballooned to 4.62. Nelson has flipped the script completely in 2017 with a 3.37 ERA through his first 22 starts, especially impressive in a season where offense has been king. The most dramatic change for Nelson this season has been the changes in his strikeout and walk rates. The strikeout rate has gone from middling to top 10 in baseball at 10.03 K/9 and the walks have been cut almost exactly in half to 2.15 BB/9. His swinging strike rate supports the strikeout gains and has moved from 7.4 percent in 2016 to 11.6 percent this season.
Most of his batted ball numbers look similar to the rest of his career so the gains really have come from those two areas. His velocity is a bit higher than last year at 93.9 mph but not dramatically, and the one change in his pitch mix is that he is throwing his curveball more in place of the fastball. The curve has been very effective for him with a scant .398 OPS against it and an impressive 41.8 percent K percent with the pitch. Nelson's ability to figure out his command combined with the effectiveness of his curveball has made him a completely different pitcher and after a full four months, it can no longer be considered a fluke.
After three of four years with an ERA under 4.00, Marco Estrada was considered a solid fantasy asset entering 2017, but he has imploded on his owners, posting a 5.19 ERA in 121.1 innings. Estrada always had a problem with the home run ball (over 1.00 HR/9 in every year of his career) due to his extreme fly ball tendencies, but he was able to minimize damage due to his ability to seemingly produce a BABIP every season. In the last three years, his BABIP has been under .260 and has allowed him to outperform his FIP significantly in each of those three seasons.
It appears the BABIP gods have been angered, as his BABIP so far in 2017 is .314, 50 points above his career average and while his 2015 and 2017 FIP's are identical, his ERA is more than two runs higher at 5.19. Interestingly, Estrada's velocity is up two mph from 2016, and his strikeouts sit at 9.42 K/9, the highest of his 10-year career. He has had issues with walks as his walk rate has climbed the last three years and now sits at 3.78 BB/9, never a good thing for a guy susceptible to the homer. One of Estrada's sneaky fantasy values was his quietly excellent whip the last four seasons, but with the increased hits and walks, even that number has exploded to 1.44. Estrada faced an average of 723 batters the last two seasons while allowing an average of 133 hits, but has already allowed 124 hits so far this year through 532 batters faced. He's throwing harder and getting more strikeouts but is clearly more hittable and walking more, which is enough reason for me to stay far away the final two months, especially in the AL East.

FAAB Feelings

I discussed Amed Rosario two weeks ago in this section, and now that he is in the majors, if you play in an NFBC-style league where he wasn't available until now, the time has arrived for bidding. He figures to play almost every day for the Mets and is coming off 94 games in Triple-A where he hit .328 with seven homers and 19 steals. Rosario is not likely to make a big power impact, but he is really fast (man, was he flying on his triple against the Rockies on Thursday) and should steal some bases. If you need a middle infielder or steals, one has to bid aggressive for the next two months of Rosario.

Ozzie Albies: Albies is a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball, and the Braves have indicated that he will play almost every day down the stretch. Albies, only 20 years old, struggled in his first taste of Triple-A in 2016 but thrived this year, hitting .285 with nine homers and 21 steals in 97 games. Albies only had six homers in 138 minor league games last year, so the power like isn't going to be there in the majors (although he mashed a three-run homer Thursday night off new Dodger Tony Cingrani), but the speed looks for real and he has only been caught twice in his 23 stolen base attempts this year.

Albies has a similar profile to Rosario with minor pop but legit speed to go with a pretty decent batting average. I don't have a strong preference between the two, but would probably lean Rosario because he has an extra year of experience in the minors, but I wouldn't argue hard either way. Again, if you need a middle infielder or steals in your league, I'd bid aggressively on Albies too and hope to land one of them to help with steals and hopefully chip in elsewhere. We don't know how if many more impact minor leaguers will come across the waiver wire this season, and owning either guy will be a lot of fun, as they're both exciting future stars of the league.

Ariel Miranda: There are not a lot of two-start pitchers I like on the waiver wire this week, so I'm taking a long look at Miranda who is risky but also carries some upside based on his matchups. Miranda gets the A's in Oakland and then a home game against the Angels. Both of his opponents are in the bottom 10in MLB in runs scored and team OPS. When one digs deeper you see that both teams are brutal team OPS against lefties (which Miranda is) and the Angels are dead last at .658.

Miranda hasn't been great, but the two matchups could not be much better in one week for a lefty starter. Miranda has struggled so far this year with a 4.41 ERA with his biggest issue being home runs allowed with a massive 27 allowed in 126.2 innings. Ideally, that should be a less of an issue facing two teams who struggle to hit for power against lefties. His hard hit rate is good at 29.6 percent, but when you allow a 51.8 percent fly ball rate, homers are going to come. This one isn't for those with weak nerves and it is risky, but if you need wins and strikeouts and can stomach some ratio risk, I like Miranda to take advantage of his matchups this week and post a nice line in his two starts.

A Closer Look

The trade deadline mixed up a few closer roles as we expected. No one wants to hear me talk about Blake Treinen anymore here or on Twitter, but if he's someone still available in your league, it's clear the A's currently are giving him a look at closer and he's worth a bid. In addition, if Shane Greene somehow slipped through FAAB in your league last week, he has been named the closer for the Tigers, but his three saves already this week has jacked his price way up.

The Twins traded their closer, Brandon Kintzler, to the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline on Monday opening up their closer job for the rest of the season. Initially, it looks like righty veteran Matt Belisle and lefty Taylor Rogers will split the role based on matchups. Rogers was very good early in the season with a 2.15 ERA through the first three months of the season, but he has really struggled recently, posting a 8.18 ERA in July. He has been even worse in the last two weeks, allowing at least one earned run in his last five appearances.

Belisle is the mirror opposite of Rogers as he was a mess in the first three months of the season with a 6.52 ERA through his first 30.1 innings with an ugly 22:17 K:BB ratio. However, he has been fantastic lately, allowing zero runs in 12.1 July innings with a 13:2 K:BB ratio. In situations like these, I usually side with the right-handed option since the matchups will call for him more often and with their recent results, if I decide to bid on the Twins situation this weekend, my bids will be on Belisle.

If you were looking for the sleeper option or play in a keeper leaguer, then look no further than 26-year-old Trevor Hildenberger. He was nasty in Triple-A with a 2.05 ERA and a 10.27 K/9 strikeout rate in 30.2 innings and since his call up to the majors he has a 19:3 K:BB ratio in 17.1 innings. Hildenberger could end up being the guy the Twins turn to in September, especially since their recent swoon has taken them further out of the AL Central race.

Series of the Weekend

Mariners at Royals: I'm going a little off the map this weekend with a series that may not jump off the page immediately but features two teams right in the mix for the American League wild card. The Royals are currently the second wild card, and the Mariners have fought through pitching injuries all season long and find themselves only 2.5 games behind the Royals even after losing game one of the series on Thursday night. The Mariners rank in the top 10 of MLB in runs scored and as detailed last week in this section, the Royals offense has risen from the dead over the last couple of months.

This series features some fun pitchers to watch, as the Mariners send both James Paxton and Felix Hernández to the hill over the weekend. Paxton has lived up to every bit of the preseason hype and has been an absolute ace aside from his one stint on DL. Paxton will come into the matchup with the Royals with a 2.68 ERA that is fully supported with a 10.48 K/9 strikeout rate and a walk rate of 2.60 BB/9. He has surrendered only five homers over his 107.1 innings and has only allowed a meager .217 batting average against. Post-DL Felix Hernandez has not quite been great, but it has been a lot better than April Felix. He went on the DL in April with a 4.73 ERA but has managed a 4.02 ERA in his eight starts since returning to the Mariners. The biggest positive takeaway from his recent performance is that Hernandez has been striking out batters, posting a 9.00 K/9 strikeout rate since his return after only a 7.43 K/9 rate in April.

Facing Felix on Saturday will be last year's breakout star of the Royals, Danny Duffy. Duffy boosted his strikeout last year from 6.72 K/9 to 9.42 K/9 en route to a great year, compiling a 3.51 ERA in 179.2 innings. Duffy has been just as good this year but has done it quite differently. The strikeouts have fallen back to 7.08 K/9, but after allowing 27 homers last season, Duffy has only allowed seven homers so far this year. Further, he helped himself by limiting hard contact, reducing his hard hit rate from 36.6 percent to 29.6 percent. Duffy is still really good without the strikeouts, but as a fantasy owner, you do miss those as his ADP was in a spot where you hope to get a lot of strikeouts from him.

This is a big series for the Mariners, especially after losing game one, as they could put themselves right back in the wild card mix with a strong weekend, but could also dig themselves a fairly significant hole with a series loss or a sweep.