This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
No projection system is perfect. While we can all easily take a three-year average and make some tweaks to come up with a projection for a seasoned and consistent veteran, that doesn't always work. In other cases, guys simply come out of nowhere and take the entire industry by surprise. This week I'll discuss a handful of players that — if we re-drafted today — would go much higher than their rankings in March suggested.
Pre-season overall ranking in parentheses.
Luis Severino, SP, NYY (#298)
"As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely." That was the last sentence in our pre-season Severino writeup, so hopefully you took that advice. Severino has been the most consistent and reliable Yankees starter this year, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 163.1 innings. His 10.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are both excellent, and with a 97.5 mph average fastball, he's been pure fantasy gold so far. There really isn't a metric that hasn't improved, including a 50.2% GB% and a swinging strike rate that has jumped year over year from 9.2% to 12.4% (league average is 10.4%). The real key in addition to the elite fastball could be his changeup that now grades out as a plus pitch that he's throwing with increasing frequency this year. The home run ball has been an issue at times, but Severino is starting to put himself in the conversation when we pull together top-10 fantasy starting pitcher lists.
Greg Holland, RP, COL (#307)
I guess given he's allowed 12 runs in his last 7.1 innings and possibly lost his closer job, maybe we weren't too wrong on Holland. That said, if you ended up rostering Holland before the season started, that investment has paid off handsomely given his 36 saves. Hopefully you've missed at least some of the recent damage by trading or benching Holland. Going forward, both Pat Neshek and Jake McGee should be owned right now in all but the shallowest of formats, though manager Bud Black has yet to officially say that Holland is out of the role. Holland had a clean outing in a non-save situation on Monday, so it's certainly possible that he still has more September saves than any other Rockies reliever, but he's also obviously on shaky ground. It's more an issue of location than velocity lately, and that's something he can adjust and fix.
Steven Souza, OF, TB (#314)
Souza is batting just .174/.297/.407 this month, dragging his overall slash line down to .251/.357/.489. He's obviously a bit more valuable in OBP leagues, but with 28 homers and 13 stolen bases, he's provided plenty of 5 X 5 value as well given his draft slot. Souza is a career .240 hitter, so he's probably always going to be a BA risk given a 31.7% career K%, but a much-improved 13.1% BB% goes a long way towards ensuring he'll be an everyday player going forward. Souza underwent hip surgery last September, so perhaps this is the new norm (especially the power) now that he's fully healthy.
Domingo Santana, OF, MIL (#316)
Santana has now shown improvement in back-to-back seasons, batting .271/.367/.471 with 21 homers and 11 stolen bases so far this season. His walk and strikeout rates (12.4% and 28.3% this year respectively) have improved for the second consecutive season, and while that's still way too many strikeouts, he's still just 24 and trending in the right direction. If you look at a guy his age who is listed at 6'5"/230, it's easy to see 30-40 home run power developing at some point, particularly if his contact ability continues to improve. Santana has done enough to lock in his place as a starter for the foreseeable future, but his strikeout issues could derail his career unless he continues to drive that rate down. Santana had some lofty strikeout rates in the minors, so that may not be a number that comes down quickly.
Sonny Gray, SP, NYY (#325)
Here we clearly put too much weight on Gray's 2016 season (5.69 ERA) than we did on his 2014 and 2015 seasons. Gray missed the first month of a season with a back injury and after sitting with a 4.84 ERA in his first 10 starts, Gray appeared headed for a second straight mediocre season. However, in his last 11 starts, the old Gray emerged, posting a 1.95 ERA and 62:22 K:BB in 69.1 innings. His 8.5 K/9 this year would represent his best strikeout rate since his 10-start rookie season in 2013 and he is controlling the home run ball better this year, especially lately with four homers in those last 11 starts. Gray has a demonstrated track record of excellent performance and should be able to keep up the good work given his past health issues have been put aside.
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (#333)
The 32-year-old Cozart has certainly picked a great year to have a career year given his impending free agency. The shortstop is hitting a solid .308/.399/.957 with 17 home runs. The power growth isn't a huge surprise given he has other seasons of 15 and 16 home runs, but the big step forward has come in the batting average category. Cozart has never hit over .258 in a full season until this year, with the batting average growth due in large part to a 0.85 BB/K that is more than double his 0.39 career mark. Overall this looks to be a change in approach, as a hitter doubling his walk rate over the prior year isn't random luck. The only caveat with Cozart is the injury bug, as he's now missed extended time with injuries in each of the last three seasons.
Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (#374)
Conforto's shoulder injury comes right in the midst of his breakout 2017. Through 440 plate appearances, Conforto is batting .279/.384/.555 with 28 home runs. That's a 215-point improvement over last year in the outfielder's OPS. Conforto is getting a second opinion, but by all accounts, he's going to need surgery that could keep him on the shelf for 4-to-6 months. Either way, it's probably best to consider him done for this year. Conforto still exhibits pretty extreme L/R splits, but they've gotten less pronounced this year with a .729 OPS versus 2016's .295 mark. Conforto is a former first-round pick with a strong prospect pedigree, so unless the shoulder somehow is a hindrance going forward, I'll probably be a buyer in 2018.
Andrelton Simmons, SS, LAA (#400)
We know about the glove, but to date, Simmons has been a top-10 offensive shortstop as well, if not more. Hitting .288/.340/.447, Simmons has 14 homers and a career-high 19 stolen bases. He should surpass the 17 homers he hit in 2013. Simmons rarely strikes out (10.3% K%), and he's taken his BB% to a career-high 7.3% this season, so he's showing real growth in his approach and in his power, as his .159 ISO is a career-best. Simmons isn't a guy who is going to develop into Corey Seager at the plate, but from a fantasy perspective, a shortstop with 15-20 home runs and 20-25 stolen bases with a .280-.290 batting average is pretty valuable. In fact, unless Francisco Lindor goes on a major SB run over the rest of the year, Elvis Andrus is the only shortstop that will hit all three of those plateaus this season. It's tough to foresee Simmons taking his game to Carlos Correa type levels, but the level he's at right now is still quite good and probably sustainable.
Corey Knebel, RP, MIL (#438)
It didn't take Neftali Feliz long to give up the closer position, and Knebel quickly won out over the likes of Jacob Barnes and other lesser candidates. Knebel has been a top-five closer since the day he got the job, posting a 1.31 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 29 saves over 61.2 innings. Knebel's upper-90s fastball has led to an elite 15.1 K/9, though a 5.0 BB/9 has held him back from being even better than he's been. Imagine his ERA (under 1.00) if he could have pushed that BB/9 down to 3.0. Knebel has just three walks in his last 9.1 innings, so perhaps he's starting to show real improvement in that part of his game. He looks to be a lock to be the team's closer for 2018 and beyond, at least until he gets too expensive.
Whit Merrifield, 2B, KC (#453)
I had merely a peripheral awareness of Merrifield coming into the season, but with two homers and eight steals in 81 games a year ago, he was viewed primarily as insurance should Raul Mondesi need additional minor league seasoning. Well Mondesi did after hitting just .103 through 14 games. Enter Merrifield, who has cemented his status (at least for the short-term) as the team's starting second baseman. Merrifield ha hit .282/.317/.455with a surprising 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases. Merrifield swiped as many as 32 bases in a season in the minors, so the speed isn't surprising, but the power is. Relatively concerning is a 4.3% BB%, a mark that's been below average for him the past couple seasons as well, but in 5 X 5 leagues, a second baseman who can hit .280 with 15-20 homers and 30 steals is valuable. The lack of plate discipline clouds his long-term value, but Mondesi is now viewed as the team's future at shortstop, so Merrifield appears to have little competition for now.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (#479)
Whether it's the fact he's fully healthy finally or a change in approach, Zimmerman has obviously turned around his fading career with a shocking .299/.352/.563 effort that includes 29 homers and 98 RBI. He's played in 118 games, a mark that he hadn't reached since 2013. We left Zimmerman for dead after he hit just .218/.272/.370 in 115 games last year, but when projecting, what else should we have done with a guy who couldn't stay healthy and was coming off three years of declining performance? Shoulder issues tend to sap power, so that's likely a major factor in why Zimmerman wasn't playing well, and given his hard-hit rate has jumped from 34.7% to 40.1% year over year, perhaps this is just his shoulder finally getting right. Zimmerman is still just 32, so he should have some good years left. This all said, Zimmerman has hit just .230/.305/.489 since the All-Star break, but he's been battling some arm soreness that seems to likely be a contributing factor. Unless he finishes strong, I'd be a bit worried about him headed into 2018, as he could be a bit overvalued given his overall numbers.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, SEA (#577)
"Maybe one year, he'll figure out how to leave the yard, but 2017 is not the season to bank on it without a major change to his approach." This is the last sentence in our pre-2017 Alonso writeup and it's really interesting to read it now. Alonso of course has completely changed his approach / swing path, a change that has resulted in a 24 home-run season, a number that is just one shy of his home run total from the previous four seasons combined. Overall, Alonso is hitting .268/.364/.509, and he's clearly traded a higher K% (23.5% vs. <14% the previous four seasons) for more power, a swap that fantasy owners are more than okay with. On the negative side, Alonso has not posted an .800+ OPS in a month since May and he's still deficient (.194/.280/.448) against southpaws. Alonso is a free agent in the offseason and he's probably hoping to cash in on his career season, but the list of first baseman / DH types that can hit 20-30 home runs and bat in the .260 range is a lengthy one. I do think the days of 7-9 home runs in a season are over, but while there is value in a .260-hitting 20-25 home run first baseman, it's not exactly a unique skillset.
