Mound Musings: Building a 2018 Draft Value List

Have you moved into the "wait 'til next year" mode? If your season is slipping away, that doesn't mean your job is done. This is a great time to do your homework for next year and even lay the foundations for a big season in 2018. This week, we'll look at players to target next spring. Keep in mind, these won't necessarily be the "best" pitchers next season. These are pitchers who could potentially offer considerable value on draft day. These could be difference makers. The Chris Sale's and Clayton Kershaw's will likely post excellent numbers, but in the majority of leagues, you'll pay full price for those stats. We're looking for valuable arms you can buy at a discount. Let's see who tops the list of pitchers who are establishing themselves as players to target:

Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) – The top spot on this list is a prized position, and Corbin sneaks in ahead of several quality contenders. Like some of the others, his value next spring will be influenced heavily by the lackluster peripherals he posted in the first half. The southpaw has a well-developed arsenal with his nasty breaking pitches in the spotlight. At the beginning of July, still working his way back from 2014 elbow surgery, he sported a 1.53 WHIP combined with a 4.81 ERA – not exactly draft day eye candy. Since then, he has allowed more than three earned runs one time (over 11 starts). The command is back, and the results are showing it. I'm all in for 2018.

Kevin Gausman (Orioles) – Regular readers know about the trials and tribulations Gausman (and his fantasy owners) suffered through. His first half gave nightmares a whole new look. At times, he looked totally lost, and his ability to throw strikes, let alone quality strikes, completely deserted him. And then, it began coming together. He gradually regained his release point, and the movement returned as well. Even with a dynamic second half to date, his abysmal 1.57 WHIP and 4.79 ERA should scare away some owners, but keep in mind, that ERA was over 6.00 as late as mid-July. When everything is clicking, he remains a top-of-the-rotation talent. Hope for a big discount.

Dinelson Lamet (Padres) – Over the years, a handful of young pitchers have somewhat surprisingly made me turn my head. The big name prospects, sure, but for the lesser known guys, it's pretty rare, and pretty exciting. In his first start, Lamet jumped onto the radar screen. He owns a devastating slider – primarily responsible for 115 strikeouts in just 92 innings – and a lively, high-octane fastball. Don't get me wrong, his naysayers are correct when they point out his lack of a consistent third pitch, but the changeup is coming. If he can get it to average, giving him another weapon against lefties, and refines his overall command just a bit, he has the toolbox to be a very good one.

Carlos Rodon (White Sox) – Rodon is a blue-chip prospect with quite a pedigree (he's a former first-round draft choice). The big lefty was rushed to the majors in 2015 at age 22 with limited pro experience, so as might be expected, his numbers have been rather pedestrian. He has flashed the good stuff occasionally, and there was plenty of spring optimism, before he was knocked out with a biceps injury in spring training. Since returning from the disabled list in late-June, those flashes have been coming a little more often. He likely will be the mound centerpiece when the talent-laden White Sox mature, and it could be as soon as next season. Southpaws can develop command a little slower than their right-handed counterparts, but the future is coming fast for Rodon.

Aaron Nola (Phillies) – Nola came out of LSU in 2014 with an already well-developed repertoire that propelled him into the Phillies rotation less than a year later. I thought he was the best pitching prospect in that draft, and the comment in my notes was "strong" referring to his likely ability to eat a lot of innings. Earlier this season, I began to wonder about that notation. His performance wasn't where I thought it would be, and he looked out of gas at times, failing to finish his pitches. Then, he hit the disabled list with a lower back strain – certainly a possible contributing factor – and he came back with cleaner, more efficient mechanics. The results have been very encouraging.

Sean Manaea (A's) – This pick requires a bit of a leap of faith. Manaea is another of those big, young, lefties who has yet to lock in his release point. It's there. Unfortunately, it comes and goes, and it's difficult to predict with certainty when it will all come together. When all the pieces are moving in concert, he is tough to hit, but when things get just a bit out of synch, he can struggle. He's not overpowering, but he possesses a very good changeup (the primary reason he is listed here) and a solid slider that complement his fastball. It's all about command of that repertoire. He should be reasonably priced on draft day, so take a shot.

Jeff Samardzija (Giants) – Not many pitchers go through a major evolution at age 32, but the Shark may be doing just that. He's generally had on and off issues with command and serving up home runs in bunches, but earlier this year those problems seemed to be getting worse. His fastball was too straight, and he was in the middle of the plate far too often. I didn't catch any of his starts for a while, and when I eventually did, I was more than a little surprised. His motion seemed smoother, there was a lot of movement, and he was locating his pitches. It was like watching a completely different pitcher. If it carries over, he could be a hidden gem in 2018.

James Paxton (Mariners) – If you've watched Paxton at least a few times, you might ask how he can make it onto this list. When he's healthy, he's capable of dominating. There's the problem – "healthy" isn't a given. Paxton hasn't pitched more than 121 innings in his five MLB seasons. That makes him a prototypical high risk/high reward play in the fantasy game. I guess I just think there is a full season in there somewhere, and with his injury history he should come at a substantial discount. The upside makes him worth a flyer, but be sure to have a contingency plan.

There you have it – a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. They may not be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

• The Jays' Joe Biagini gets an honorable mention for the target list. His inclusion would be based on significant improvement of his secondary stuff, but I'm not quite ready to endorse his potential breakout. He looked fantastic in his recent outing against the heavy-hitting Orioles. Monitor him the rest of the way.

• The Cardinals also have a pitcher who nearly made the target list above. The only thing that kept Luke Weaver from being included was over-performance this season. Unfortunately, value usually equates with less than stellar numbers and lack of familiarity (less hype), but Weaver is dinging both qualifiers. I like him.

• I'm becoming somewhat concerned about the Dodgers' Yu Darvish. He made a couple of strong starts after he was acquired, but then went on the disabled list with back woes and hasn't looked the same since returning. Hopefully he's past the injury, but he's really struggling with command of the strike zone right now.

• The already depleted Tigers have Michael Fulmer scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews next week about his injured elbow, and visits with Andrews rarely result in good news. They won't know until after the evaluation whether surgery will be needed, but with nothing to play for this season, Fulmer's year likely is over.

• Stephen Strasburg has been on a roll lately – he's currently working on a franchise record, 26-inning scoreless streak – but the oft-injured pitcher is displaying some disconcerting signs. He has recently had problems with cramping in his legs, which could lead to conservative usage going forward.

• I was so tempted to include the Angels' Garrett Richards on the above list of draft day targets, and he may actually be a target for me, but with only eight innings thrown this year, and just 42 over the past two years, there is just too much risk. If he can ever get and stay healthy he has ace ability.
  

It seems the Giants will finish the season with someone other than Mark Melancon – presumably the often shaky Sam Dyson – finishing games. Melancon will be undergoing surgery to correct a forearm problem, which should see him back to 100 percent by next spring. With Kelvin Herrera (and Joakim Soria) banged up, the Royals apparently will turn to Brandon Maurer, who has been inconsistent all year, and Scott Alexander to finish up. The Cardinals are in at least a partial timeshare. Seung Hwan Oh appears to be the preferred choice, but Tyler Lyons may be an option against lefty swingers. In Texas, Keone Kela is progressing in his rehab and the door is open, but it's yet to be seen if he can get up to speedand ready for ninth inning work before the regular season ends. I can't recall a bullpen with less predictable roles than the Angels have presented us with. Today, Blake Parker might be a slight favorite for saves, but if you wear an Angels' uniform, you could get the ball in the ninth inning. Paying for mistakes is part of the job for closers, but Toronto's Roberto Osuna has been going through a severe stretch of really bad luck. I do think he'll be fine.