This article is part of our Survivor series.
Usually, the Vegas odds, and my opinions of the games are close enough that narrowing down the choices to the biggest favorites doesn't cost me anything, but in this case it was only the entire season for three of my four entries. Those of you who picked the Rams in the comments had it right.
All that said, let's look at a much simpler Week 2 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIDERS | Jets | 50.10% | 900 | 90.00% | 5.01 |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 22.20% | 787.5 | 88.73% | 2.50 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 10.00% | 330 | 76.74% | 2.33 |
| Cardinals | COLTS | 5.80% | 320 | 76.19% | 1.38 |
| PANTHERS | Bills | 3.10% | 290 | 74.36% | 0.79 |
| BUCCANEERS | Bears | 2.80% | 290 | 74.36% | 0.72 |
| BENGALS | Texans | 1.30% | 260 | 72.22% | 0.36 |
| Patriots | SAINTS | 1.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.27 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
For me, there are really only two choices here, and I mean that this time. Unlike last week, there's no other game in which I picked a larger margin of victory than these two.
The
Usually, the Vegas odds, and my opinions of the games are close enough that narrowing down the choices to the biggest favorites doesn't cost me anything, but in this case it was only the entire season for three of my four entries. Those of you who picked the Rams in the comments had it right.
All that said, let's look at a much simpler Week 2 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIDERS | Jets | 50.10% | 900 | 90.00% | 5.01 |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 22.20% | 787.5 | 88.73% | 2.50 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 10.00% | 330 | 76.74% | 2.33 |
| Cardinals | COLTS | 5.80% | 320 | 76.19% | 1.38 |
| PANTHERS | Bills | 3.10% | 290 | 74.36% | 0.79 |
| BUCCANEERS | Bears | 2.80% | 290 | 74.36% | 0.72 |
| BENGALS | Texans | 1.30% | 260 | 72.22% | 0.36 |
| Patriots | SAINTS | 1.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.27 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
For me, there are really only two choices here, and I mean that this time. Unlike last week, there's no other game in which I picked a larger margin of victory than these two.
The Raiders, according to Vegas, have a 90 percent chance to win, but half your pool is likely to be on them, while the Seahawks have an 88.7 percent chance with 22 percent of pools on them.
Running the numbers, if the Raiders win and Seahawks lose, 22 people go down, plus another six on other teams, leaving 72 left (in our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool.) $1000/72 = $13.89. If the Seahawks win and Raiders lose, 56 people go down, and we're looking at 1000/44 = $22.73.
The ratio of $22.73/13.89 = 1.64. Basically, you're getting 1.64: 1 on the payout by taking the Seahawks over the Raiders - at least with these assumptions built in.
The risk of taking the Seahawks is slightly higher. The odds of a Seahawks win/Raiders loss are 8.87 percent, while a Raiders win/Seahawks loss is 10.17 percent. That ratio is 1.15. So the Seahawks give you a significantly better payout (1.64:1) for a slightly higher risk.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
After losing last week, I'd love to take the safer pick, the Raiders, just to minimize the chances of losing two weeks in a row, but cowardly picking doesn't win Survivor pools. Where the payout warrants you have to take on extra risk. And this isn't a huge amount of it as the Seahawks are excellent at home and should handle a weak 49ers team fairly easily. I give the Seahawks an 89 percent chance to win this game.
2. Oakland Raiders
I simply cannot see the Jets winning this game, as the Raiders don't turn the ball over much, and their exploitable defense isn't likely to be tested by the Jets. That said, if there were really no chance of the Jets winning, you could go to Vegas, lay down $1,100 and get a free hundred dollar bill! Or why not make it $11,000 for $1000 or 110,000 for $10K? It's worth the cost of your first-class ticket. Seriously, though, we all know better, and it's why we have to take the generous Week 3 payout should the unlikely outcome occur. I give the Raiders a 92 percent chance of winning this game.
Notable Omissions
Baltimore Ravens - I think they should handle the Browns at home, but the offense isn't good, and the top two options are simply too strong.
Carolina Panthers - The Bills are a little bit dangerous with their strong running game and big-play quarterback.
Arizona Cardinals - With David Johnson out, and Carson Palmer with one foot in the NFL afterlife, I wouldn't mess with this in Indy, no matter how awful the Colts look.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bears are bad, but they showed up last week, and the Bucs could be rusty after an unexpected Week 1 bye.
