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| Recent Blog Post: 2013 W-L Predictions: Money Talks |
Vegas has now posted their win totals and World Series odds for each team, giving the savvy bettor an opportunity to wager before bookmakers can adjust. Even though the first exhibition games have yet to be played, we have a sense as to how teams will perform in 2013. Here are my Win-Loss projections, along with the Vegas lines on Wins, Winning the Pennant, and Winning the World Series, with a few wagers I like thrown in for good measure.
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AL EAST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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New York Yankees
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89
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73
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86.5
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13-2
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+1250
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Tampa Bay Rays
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88
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74
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85
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12-1
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+1600
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Toronto Blue Jays
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83
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79
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86.5
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12-1
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+1600
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Baltimore Orioles
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81
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81
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76.5
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20-1
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+5000
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Boston Red Sox
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76
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86
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79.5
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14-1
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+2000
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AL CENTRAL
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Detroit Tigers
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91
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71
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90
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4-1
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+800
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Chicago White Sox
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83
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79
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80.5
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20-1
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+4000
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Kansas City Royals
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81
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81
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79
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25-1
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+5000
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Cleveland Indians
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77
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85
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77.5
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20-1
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+9000
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Minnesota Twins
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65
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97
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64.5
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50-1
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+10000
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AL WEST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Los Angeles Angels
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92
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70
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89.5
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9-2
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+600
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Texas Rangers
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88
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74
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87
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13-2
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+1500
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Oakland Athletics
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86
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76
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83
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16-1
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+3200
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Seattle Mariners
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75
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87
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76.5
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40-1
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+7000
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Houston Astros
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63
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99
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59.5
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100-1
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+25000
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NL EAST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Washington Nationals
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92
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70
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90
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15-4
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+800
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Atlanta Braves
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89
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73
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86
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7-1
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+1500
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Philadelphia Phillies
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81
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81
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81.5
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25-1
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+1650
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New York Mets
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73
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89
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74
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40-1
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+8800
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Miami Marlins
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61
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101
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64.5
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50-1
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+20000
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NL CENTRAL
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Cincinnati Reds
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91
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71
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89.5
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6-1
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+1200
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St. Louis Cardinals
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85
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77
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85.5
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9-1
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+1800
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Milwaukee Brewers
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81
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81
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79.5
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18-1
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+5000
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Pittsburgh Pirates
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77
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85
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79
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25-1
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+6500
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Chicago Cubs
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75
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87
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72
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40-1
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+10000
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NL WEST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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91
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71
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89.5
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4-1
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+650
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San Francisco Giants
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86
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76
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86
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7-1
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+1000
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Arizona Diamondbacks
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83
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79
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81.5
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25-1
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+5000
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San Diego Padres
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76
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86
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74.5
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40-1
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+8500
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Colorado Rockies
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71
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91
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71.5
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50-1
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+10000
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Orioles over 76.5 wins
It seems like everyone, including Vegas, does not believe the Orioles can repeat their incredible 2012 season win total of 93. They certainly had a lot of favorable bounces last year, but are still a solid team with Matt Wieters, Jim Johnson and Adam Jones. Even with a Baltimore chop to .500 in 2013, their 81 wins are 4.5 more than the line, and the largest differential among my predictions.
Blue Jays under 86.5 wins
Am I the only person who thinks an increase of nearly 14 wins from last season is a bit of a reach for Toronto? The new-look Blue Jays won just 73 games last season, but are being picked by many to win the uber-competitive AL East. Jose Reyes is good, but not that good, and I just do not see that much improvement, or a trip to the post-season in 2013.
Astros over 59.5 wins
When was the last time any franchise had three consecutive 100-loss seasons in a row? The Detroit Tigers did it from 1994-96. And, in the past 50 years, only one other franchise, the New York Mets, has done so (1962-65). It will not be easy, but the team that scored the fewest runs in baseball will be helped by their move to the AL and the addition of the designated hitter. The Astros have a .465 winning percentage against the AL, a mark they have achieved only twice in the past six seasons in the NL. As a result, I believe they will narrowly avoid 100 losses in 2013.
Marlins under 64.5 wins
The same cannot be said for Miami. With Houston moving to the AL, and a roster that was decimated by the epic-fail that was their trade with Toronto, the Marlins should be able to claim the worst record in the NL. Without Reyes, Mark Buehrle or Josh Johnson, the 2013 season will not make the Miami-Dade County $2.4 billion debt any easier to swallow.
Dodgers 4-1 to win NL Pennant
On paper, the Washington Nationals may be the best team in baseball, adding Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano and Denard Span to their roster. But, as a lifelong Yankees fan, I know that money talks. Adding Zack Greinke to a pitching rotation that already has Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano makes Los Angeles and their league-leading $213 million payroll my pick to win the NL Pennant.
Value Bet: Giants 7-1 to win NL Pennant
They are still the champs until someone beats them.
Angels 9-2 to win AL Pennant
The Detroit Tigers, with the 2011 and 2012 MVPs, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, will run away with the division this year, and be the first to clinch a playoff spot. But, the lack of competition during the regular season will be their downfall, losing to Josh Hamilton and the Angels in the AL Championship, setting the stage for an all Los Angeles World Series. Not surprisingly, the Angels $152 million payroll is second only to the Yankees in the AL, but that includes the $27.5 million being paid to Alex Rodriguez, who may not play until July.
Value Bet: Rays 12-1 to win AL Pennant
Their chances improve greatly if they edge out New York for the AL East title, avoiding the Wild Card play-in game.
Angels +600 to win World Series
Free-agent Hamilton helps bring home the championship that 2012 free-agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson could not.
Value Bet: Rays +1600 to win World Series
Posted by rkinigson at 2/20/2013 7:49:00 AM |
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Recent Los Angeles Angels Player News
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| RotoWire Update |
Recommendation |
| Jason Vargas (P) ANA |
5/24/2013 |
| Vargas allowed just two runs on five hits and four walks with two strikeouts over 7.1 innings against the Royals on Friday. |
Obviously the four walks and absence of strikeouts is less than ideal for fantasy purposes, but Vargas tossed another solid game and posted his fifth equality start in his last six outings. He now has a very solid 3.43 ERA with a 42:24 K:BB over 65.2 innings and should be active next week when he faces the Dodgers. |
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| Tommy Hanson (P) ANA |
5/24/2013 |
| Hanson will make a start at extended spring training Saturday, the Orange County Register reports. |
Hanson will be capped at around 75 pitches in the outing and will likely make another start at extended spring training before rejoining the rotation, likely in early June. He could replace the beleaguered Joe Blanton in the rotation at that point but has been far from a reliable pitcher in his own right the past two seasons. |
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| Peter Bourjos (OF) ANA |
5/24/2013 |
| Bourjos (hamstring) began taking batting practice and jogging this week, the Los Angeles Times reports. |
It appears Bourjos is progressing nicely from the hamstring strain and seems well on his way to return in early June, as was projected a couple of weeks ago. His return would allow Mike Trout to slide over to left field and move J.B. Shuck to a bench role, which his skill set is more ideally suited. |
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| Billy Buckner (P) ANA |
5/24/2013 |
| Buckner will start Saturday against the Royals, the Orange County Register reports. |
It should simply be a one-start situation for Buckner, as the Angels will welcome Jered Weaver back to the rotation next week. Buckner hasn't pitched for the Angels since being called up last week from Triple-A Salt Lake, where he was 4-2 with a 4.56 ERA and 40:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio over eight starts. |
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| Albert Pujols (1B) ANA |
5/23/2013 |
| Pujols launched a solo home run in Thursday's 5-4 win at Kansas City. |
It was Pujols' only hit of the game, and eighth homer of the season. He's not putting up the numbers that we're used to seeing, but he has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games with three long balls and nine RBI over that span. |
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| Robert Coello (P) ANA |
5/23/2013 |
| Coello got the final out of Thursday’s game at Kansas City to notch the first save of his career. |
Coello was called upon after Ernesto Frieri made a mess of the ninth inning, nearly blowing a three-run lead. Coello hasn’t allowed a run in 7.1 innings since being called up from Triple-A Salt Lake, although it would be surprising if he gets many more save chances. |
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| Ernesto Frieri (P) ANA |
5/23/2013 |
| Frieri was pulled from Thursday's save opportunity after allowing two runs on three hits and a walk. |
The Angels hung on for a one-run win, so Frieri didn't record a blown save (he actually got a hold). Frieri has been solid this year, although he's given up at least one run in three straight apperances. Ryan Madson (elbow) is still weeks away from returning, so there really isn't much competition for Frieri, even if he continues to struggle. |
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| Jered Weaver (P) ANA |
5/23/2013 |
| Manager Mike Scioscia said Weaver (elbow) will rejoin the rotation next week barring a setback during his weekend bullpen session, the Orange County Register reports. |
Scioscia didn't say where exactly Weaver would slot into the rotation, but there would appear to be a vacancy Thursday against the Dodgers that he could fill. Weaver completed a successful outing at extended spring training Wednesday, surrendering one run and no walks over 5.2 innings. |
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| Mike Trout (OF) ANA |
5/22/2013 |
| Trout went 2-for-4 with a triple and two runs scored Wednesday against the Mariners. |
A night after hitting for the cycle, Trout played a key role in the Angels' 7-1 drubbing of the Mariners on Wednesday. The phenom has his average up to .297, and after a slower than expected start to his 2013 campaign, has really turned it on as of late. |
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Recent Los Angeles Angels Team News
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| RotoWire Update |
| ANA |
11/7/2005 |
| The Angels extended manager Mike Scioscia's contract through the 2009 season, with a club option for 2010, the LA Times reports. |
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6/24/2005 |
| The Angels enter Friday's play with the lowest ERA in the majors at 3.54, just a shade ahead of the White Sox (3.56). Minnesota and Cleveland are next, with St. Louis the best pitching team in the National League. |
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5/27/2005 |
| Despite the negative results from hitting coach Mickey Hatcher's "hack first, ask questions later" approach, Hatcher isn't in any danger of losing his job, the LA Daily News reports. Said manager Mike Scioscia: "We have a terrific staff. It's not an issue." |
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Roster
Majors
Aybar, Erick SS
Blanton, Joe P
Bourjos, Peter OF(15D DL)
Buckner, Billy P
Burnett, Sean P
Callaspo, Alberto 3B
Coello, Robert P
Conger, Hank C
De La Rosa, Dane P
Downs, Scott P(DTD)
Frieri, Ernesto P
Hamilton, Josh OF
Hanson, Tommy P(Out)
Harris, Brendan SS
Iannetta, Chris C
Jepsen, Kevin P(15D DL)
Kendrick, Howie 2B
Kohn, Michael P
Lowe, Mark P
Madson, Ryan P(15D DL)
Nelson, Chris 3B
Pujols, Albert 1B
Richards, Garrett P
Shuck, J.B. OF
Trout, Mike OF
Trumbo, Mark OF
Vargas, Jason P
Weaver, Jered P(15D DL)
Williams, Jerome P
Wilson, C.J. P
AAA
Brasier, Ryan P
Cabrera, Fernando P
Calhoun, Kole OF
Carlin, Luke C
Carpenter, David P
Cordero, Chad P
Cousins, Scott OF
Delaney, Robert P
Enright, Barry P
Field, Thomas SS(7-Day DL)
Hawpe, Brad OF
Hester, John C
Jimenez, Luis 3B
Lopez, Roberto OF
Navarro, Efren 1B
Oeltjen, Trent OF
Pena, Tony P(Out)
Ramirez, Elvin P
Rodriguez, Luis 2B
Romine, Andrew SS
Roth, Michael P
Schugel, AJ P(DTD)
Shoemaker, Matt P
Sisk, Brandon P(Out)
Stetter, Mitch P
Wells, Kip P
Young, Matt OF
AA
Auer, Tyson OF
Boshers, Buddy P
Chaffee, Ryan P
Cisco, Mike P
Correa, Manuarys P
Cowart, Kaleb 3B
Cron, C.J. 1B
Deeds, Doug OF
Gomez, Rolando SS
Grichuk, Randal OF
Haerther, Casey 1B
Heether, Adam 3B
Hynick, Brandon P
Judy, Josh P
Lindsey, Taylor SS
Long, Matt OF
Maronde, Nick P
McAnulty, Paul OF
Meyer, Matt P
Ramirez, Carlos C(Suspension)
Sarmiento, Elio C
Taylor, Andrew P(60D DL)
Tillman, Daniel P
Widlansky, Robert P
Witherspoon, Travis OF
A+
Alvarez, R.J. P
Borenstein, Zach 1B
Hernandez, Brian 3B
Kelley, Ty P
Reynolds, Danny P
Sneed, Kramer P
Snyder, Michael 3B
Wood, Austin P
Yarbrough, Alex 2B
A
Bedrosian, Cam P
Clarke, Chevez OF
Johnson, Kyle OF
Keudell, Alexander P
Soto, Wendell SS
Rookie
Bolden, Ryan OF
Clevinger, Mike P
Diemer, Brian P
Hatton, Wes 2B
Jang, Pil Joon P
Jung, Young-Il P
Locker, Jake OF
Russell, Max P
Sappington, Mark P
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