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| Recent Blog Post: 2013 W-L Predictions: Money Talks |
Vegas has now posted their win totals and World Series odds for each team, giving the savvy bettor an opportunity to wager before bookmakers can adjust. Even though the first exhibition games have yet to be played, we have a sense as to how teams will perform in 2013. Here are my Win-Loss projections, along with the Vegas lines on Wins, Winning the Pennant, and Winning the World Series, with a few wagers I like thrown in for good measure.
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AL EAST
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W
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L
|
WINS
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PENNANT
|
WS
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New York Yankees
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89
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73
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86.5
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13-2
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+1250
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Tampa Bay Rays
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88
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74
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85
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12-1
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+1600
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Toronto Blue Jays
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83
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79
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86.5
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12-1
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+1600
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Baltimore Orioles
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81
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81
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76.5
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20-1
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+5000
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Boston Red Sox
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76
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86
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79.5
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14-1
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+2000
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AL CENTRAL
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
|
WS
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Detroit Tigers
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91
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71
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90
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4-1
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+800
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Chicago White Sox
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83
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79
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80.5
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20-1
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+4000
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Kansas City Royals
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81
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81
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79
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25-1
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+5000
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Cleveland Indians
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77
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85
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77.5
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20-1
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+9000
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Minnesota Twins
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65
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97
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64.5
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50-1
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+10000
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AL WEST
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W
|
L
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WINS
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PENNANT
|
WS
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Los Angeles Angels
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92
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70
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89.5
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9-2
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+600
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Texas Rangers
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88
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74
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87
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13-2
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+1500
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Oakland Athletics
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86
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76
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83
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16-1
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+3200
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Seattle Mariners
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75
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87
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76.5
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40-1
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+7000
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Houston Astros
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63
|
99
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59.5
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100-1
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+25000
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NL EAST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
|
WS
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Washington Nationals
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92
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70
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90
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15-4
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+800
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Atlanta Braves
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89
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73
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86
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7-1
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+1500
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Philadelphia Phillies
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81
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81
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81.5
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25-1
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+1650
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New York Mets
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73
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89
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74
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40-1
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+8800
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Miami Marlins
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61
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101
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64.5
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50-1
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+20000
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NL CENTRAL
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Cincinnati Reds
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91
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71
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89.5
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6-1
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+1200
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St. Louis Cardinals
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85
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77
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85.5
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9-1
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+1800
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Milwaukee Brewers
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81
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81
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79.5
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18-1
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+5000
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Pittsburgh Pirates
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77
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85
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79
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25-1
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+6500
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Chicago Cubs
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75
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87
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72
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40-1
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+10000
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NL WEST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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91
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71
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89.5
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4-1
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+650
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San Francisco Giants
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86
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76
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86
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7-1
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+1000
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Arizona Diamondbacks
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83
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79
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81.5
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25-1
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+5000
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San Diego Padres
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76
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86
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74.5
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40-1
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+8500
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Colorado Rockies
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71
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91
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71.5
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50-1
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+10000
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Orioles over 76.5 wins
It seems like everyone, including Vegas, does not believe the Orioles can repeat their incredible 2012 season win total of 93. They certainly had a lot of favorable bounces last year, but are still a solid team with Matt Wieters, Jim Johnson and Adam Jones. Even with a Baltimore chop to .500 in 2013, their 81 wins are 4.5 more than the line, and the largest differential among my predictions.
Blue Jays under 86.5 wins
Am I the only person who thinks an increase of nearly 14 wins from last season is a bit of a reach for Toronto? The new-look Blue Jays won just 73 games last season, but are being picked by many to win the uber-competitive AL East. Jose Reyes is good, but not that good, and I just do not see that much improvement, or a trip to the post-season in 2013.
Astros over 59.5 wins
When was the last time any franchise had three consecutive 100-loss seasons in a row? The Detroit Tigers did it from 1994-96. And, in the past 50 years, only one other franchise, the New York Mets, has done so (1962-65). It will not be easy, but the team that scored the fewest runs in baseball will be helped by their move to the AL and the addition of the designated hitter. The Astros have a .465 winning percentage against the AL, a mark they have achieved only twice in the past six seasons in the NL. As a result, I believe they will narrowly avoid 100 losses in 2013.
Marlins under 64.5 wins
The same cannot be said for Miami. With Houston moving to the AL, and a roster that was decimated by the epic-fail that was their trade with Toronto, the Marlins should be able to claim the worst record in the NL. Without Reyes, Mark Buehrle or Josh Johnson, the 2013 season will not make the Miami-Dade County $2.4 billion debt any easier to swallow.
Dodgers 4-1 to win NL Pennant
On paper, the Washington Nationals may be the best team in baseball, adding Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano and Denard Span to their roster. But, as a lifelong Yankees fan, I know that money talks. Adding Zack Greinke to a pitching rotation that already has Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano makes Los Angeles and their league-leading $213 million payroll my pick to win the NL Pennant.
Value Bet: Giants 7-1 to win NL Pennant
They are still the champs until someone beats them.
Angels 9-2 to win AL Pennant
The Detroit Tigers, with the 2011 and 2012 MVPs, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, will run away with the division this year, and be the first to clinch a playoff spot. But, the lack of competition during the regular season will be their downfall, losing to Josh Hamilton and the Angels in the AL Championship, setting the stage for an all Los Angeles World Series. Not surprisingly, the Angels $152 million payroll is second only to the Yankees in the AL, but that includes the $27.5 million being paid to Alex Rodriguez, who may not play until July.
Value Bet: Rays 12-1 to win AL Pennant
Their chances improve greatly if they edge out New York for the AL East title, avoiding the Wild Card play-in game.
Angels +600 to win World Series
Free-agent Hamilton helps bring home the championship that 2012 free-agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson could not.
Value Bet: Rays +1600 to win World Series
Posted by rkinigson at 2/20/2013 7:49:00 AM |
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Recent Toronto Blue Jays Player News
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| RotoWire Update |
Recommendation |
| Luis Perez (P) TOR |
6/18/2013 |
| Perez (elbow) has been shut down from rehabbing temporarily due to a minor setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, according to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. |
Perez is recovering from Tommy John surgery that he had last July and it seems the setback will not hold him out too long. He still is looking at a return in the middle of August most likely if everything proceeds well with his throwing and rehab assignment before he can return to the Blue Jays bullpen. |
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| Jose Reyes (SS) TOR |
6/18/2013 |
| Reyes (ankle) will DH at High-A Dunedin on Tuesday, and his rehab assignment will be transferred to Double-A New Hampshire or Triple-A Buffalo by the end of the week, the National Post reports. |
Reyes played five innings at Dunedin on Monday, going 2-for-3 at the plate. Since he has avoided a setback thus far, his rehab is clearly on schedule, with a return to the Blue Jays very likely by the time June concludes. |
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| Brandon Morrow (P) TOR |
6/18/2013 |
| Morrow (forearm) suffered a setback during Monday's rehab outing at High-A Dunedin, MLB.com reports. |
Morrow's sore forearm will be examined in the near future, but it looks like his expected return to the Blue Jays by the end of June is now in jeopardy. The past month and a half has been plagued by injuries, but he has still managed to make 10 starts, posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 54.1 innings. |
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| Colby Rasmus (OF) TOR |
6/18/2013 |
| Rasmus is out of the Blue Jays' lineup Tuesday against the Rockies, the National Post reports. |
Rasmus will step aside, as a series of switches allows Emilio Bonifacio to man second base and bat ninth in the order. During his last seven appearances, Rasmus' bat has come to life, as he's crushed four homers to go with seven RBI and eight runs scored. |
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| Daniel Norris (P) TOR |
6/18/2013 |
| Norris has a sore forearm and is expected to rejoin the Class-A Lansing rotation soon, the Blue Jays' official website reports. |
Norris left a June 9 start with a sore forearm, but fortunately an MRI did not reveal any structural damage. He's one of the Blue Jays' top prospects, though his performance in the minors has yet to reflect that status. |
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| Brandon Morrow (P) TOR |
6/17/2013 |
| Morrow (forearm) started for Class-A Dunedin Monday and allowed three runs and five hits in two innings. |
The Blue Jays likely aren't as concerned about his performance Monday as much as how he will feel tomorrow. He'll likely need at least a couple more rehab starts before returning to the majors. |
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Recent Toronto Blue Jays Team News
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| RotoWire Update |
| TOR |
10/4/2004 |
| John Gibbons was named manager of the Blue Jays on Monday, the Associated Press reports. He was given a one year contract. Gibbons took over as interim manager on Aug. 8, when Carlos Tosca was fired after the team opened 47-64. |
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8/8/2004 |
| The Blue Jays fired manager Carlos Tosca on Sunday. The team named first base coach John Gibbons interim manager for the remainder of the season. |
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10/8/2002 |
| GM J.P. Ricciardi has officially signed his five-year contract extension, the Associated Press reports. The Red Sox reportedly had pursued Ricciardi, causing much speculation in T.O. |
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Roster
Majors
Arencibia, J.P. C
Bautista, Jose OF
Bonifacio, Emilio OF
Buehrle, Mark P
Cabrera, Melky OF
Cecil, Brett P
Davis, Rajai OF
Delabar, Steve P
DeRosa, Mark OF
Dickey, R.A. P
Drabek, Kyle P(60D DL)
Encarnacion, Edwin 1B
Happ, J.A. P(60D DL)
Hutchison, Drew P(60D DL)
Izturis, Maicer 3B
Janssen, Casey P
Johnson, Josh P
Kawasaki, Munenori SS
Lawrie, Brett 3B(15D DL)
Lind, Adam 1B
Loup, Aaron P
McGowan, Dustin P
Morrow, Brandon P(15D DL)
Oliver, Darren P
Ortiz, Ramon P(15D DL)
Perez, Juan P
Perez, Luis P(60D DL)
Rasmus, Colby OF
Reyes, Jose SS(60D DL)
Rogers, Esmil P
Santos, Sergio P(60D DL)
Thole, Josh C
Wagner, Neil P
Wang, Chien-Ming P
AAA
Beck, Chad P(7-Day DL)
Brummett, Tyson P
Bush, Dave P
Carlyle, Buddy P
Carreno, Joel P
Collazo, Willie P
Germano, Justin P
Goins, Ryan SS
Gomez, Mauro 1B
Gose, Anthony OF
Hoffpauir, Jarrett 2B
Hottovy, Tommy P
Jeffress, Jeremy P
Jenkins, Chad P
Jimenez, Luis 1B
Jimenez, Alvido P
Korecky, Bobby P
Langerhans, Ryan OF
LaRoche, Andy 3B
Lincoln, Brad P
Loewen, Adam OF
McCoy, Mike OF(DTD)
Murphy, Bill P
Nanita, Ricardo OF
Negrych, Jim 2B
Nickeas, Mike C
Nieves, Efrain P
Redding, Tim P
Redmond, Todd P
Romero, Ricky P
Schwimer, Michael P(7-Day DL)
Sierra, Moises OF
Smith, Dwight OF
Stilson, John P
Storey, Mickey P
Uviedo, Ronald P
Vargas, Claudio P(DTD)
Velez, Eugenio 2B
Weber, Thad P
AA
Clemens, Koby 1B
Crawford, Evan P
Hernandez, Fernando P
Jacobo, Gabe 1B
Jimenez, A.J. C
Manzella, Tommy SS
McGuire, Deck P
Mozingo, Harold P
Nay, Mitch 3B
Nolin, Sean P
Pillar, Kevin OF
Robinson, Clint 1B
Sanchez, Luis SS
Schimpf, Ryan 2B
Spoone, Chorye P
Stroman, Marcus P
Tepera, Ryan P(Out)
Tolisano, John OF
Wilson, Kenny OF
Zawadzki, Lance SS
A+
Ahrens, Kevin 3B
Farina, Alan P(Suspension)
Knecht, Marcus OF
Sanchez, Aaron P(7-Day DL)
Smith, Egan P
A
Alford, Anthony OF
Brisker, Markus OF
Hawkins, Chris 3B
Hobson, K.C. 1B
Lopes, Christian 2B
Norris, Daniel P(DTD)
Osuna, Roberto P
Pompey, Dalton OF
Sweeney, Kellen SS
Rookie
Anderson, Jacob OF
Barreto, Franklin OF
Bickford, Phil P
Davis, D.J. OF
DeJong, Chase P
Gabryszwski, Jeremy P
Gonzales, Tyler P
Jackson, Justin P
Murphy, Griffin P
Smoral, Matt P
Thon, Jr, Dickie SS
Boyd, Matt P
Hollon, Clinton P
Lietz, Daniel P
Murphy, Patrick P
Smith, Evan P
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