Terry's one-year cameo with the Celtics did not go as planned, as he averaged just 10.1 points in 27 minutes per game – both the lowest since his rookie season – en route to a first round playoff exit. The 36-year-old is nearing the end of his productive career, and with his minutes expected to decline, his streak of 13 consecutive double-digit scoring average seasons could come to an end.
Terry followed up the Mavericks’ title run in 2011 with what we’ve come to expect from the 35-year-old veteran: a host of three-point field goals and a scoring average in the mid-teens. Terry actually shot threes with even more frequency last season, attempting 5.8 per game and knocking down 2.2, his highest totals in both categories since the 2008-09 season. He’s now headed east to Boston, where he’ll be asked to essentially replace Ray Allen, who signed with the Heat in the offseason. Like he did for much of his tenure with the Mavericks, Terry will be asked to come off the bench as a designated shooter of sorts, with Courtney Lee tabbed as the starter. Terry may see a slight reduction in minutes as he enters his 14th NBA season, but the quality of his looks should only improve playing alongside the ultimate setup man in Rajon Rondo. After falling to 43.0 percent shooting from the field and 37.8 percent beyond the arc while playing with an on-his-last-legs Jason Kidd at point guard, Terry should get some help from Rondo should to return to his career percentages of 44.8 and 38.0, if not exceed them.
Terry played in 82 games last season, averaging 15.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.6 three-pointers, 1.1 steals, and 2.0 turnovers in 31 minutes. His assist numbers have long gone underappreciated, because he’s so well known as a dramatic three-point shooter. But cunning fantasy owners should take notice of his ability to contribute there despite limited possessions. He’s been a healthy and consistent contributor to the Mavericks’ success for the past seven seasons, and despite the acquisition of Rudy Fernandez in a draft-day trade and Rodrigue Beaubois’ potential, Terry should remain a key cog in the Mavericks offense. It’s worth noting Terry has just one more year left on his deal with the Mavs, and his status as an expiring contract could make him a potential trade piece during the season. However, it’s more likely the Mavs would sign him to a modest extension, considering his value to the team during its NBA Championship run last season.
This isn't Terry's 27th year in the NBA, but it almost feels like it. Since the 2000-01 season, Terry has been roughly the same player: 16-18 points, 1.8-2.0 threes, and about three free-throw attempts per game at an 85 percent clip. One way not to deploy Terry is as one of your primary point guards. He qualifies there in some leagues, and he's a fine play as a third option, say, but he's unlikely to top even four assists per game. The question for Terry isn't his per-minute production. Rather, it's his role. With the emergence of Rodrigue Beaubois last year, it's reasonable to think that Terry's role could decrease at some point in the near future. The "near future" probably won't be at the beginning of the 2010-11 season. After undergoing surgery in August to repair a hairline fracture in his foot, Beaubois is unlikely to be at full strength to begin the season.
Terry put together his most impressive campaign in recent memory at a time when most thought his career was on the decline. Last season the Mavericks lacked the scoring depth that they had in the past with Devin Harris off in New Jersey, Jason Kidd becoming less and less of a threat and Josh Howard in and out of the lineup with various injuries. As a result, the Mavs relied on Terry heavily as their number two scorer behind Dirk Nowitzki, and Terry nearly broke his career-high in points, coming up just shy at 19.6 per game on 15.8 field goal attempts per game, the most he has taken since the ’00-’01 season. The increased shot attempts also entailed an increase in three-point attempts, resulting in a career-high 2.3 treys per game. Dallas added another capable scorer in Shawn Marion via free agency, which does not bode well for Terry’s fantasy prospects this season. Consider last year’s production as his ceiling, with a likely regression close to his averages from a few seasons ago.
Terry was productive next to Devin Harris last year with each playing combo guard roles. But the midseason arrival of Jason Kidd pushed Terry purely to the shooting guard spot where he’s undersized on defense and does not get as many assists (3.2 per game after Kidd’s arrival). The change might help Terry’s scoring slightly (15.5 ppg, 1.7 3pg post-Kidd), but at best he’s the third scoring option behind Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. Terry’s no longer the defensive player that he once was, averaging barely one steal as opposed to the almost two he used to snatch in Atlanta. On the positive side, Terry has played in at least 78 games in each of his nine years in the NBA, so he has a knack for remaining healthy over the grind of a long season.
There’s a vague sense of disappointment surrounding Jason Terry. He’s never emerged as a real big-time scorer, his defense seems to have taken a step backwards, and his position is a spot where the Mavericks always seem to be considering an upgrade. But there’s one facet of Terry’s game that is invaluable to fantasy players: his remarkable consistency. Plug him into your lineup and you’re all but assured of a scoring average in the 15-18 point range, around five assists and two treys and excellent percentages (48.4% from the floor, 80.4% from the line last season). Plus, he’s very durable, having appeared in at least 78 games in each of his eight NBA seasons.
How much do the Mavs love Jason Terry? Six years, and $50 million dollars, that’s how much. Terry wasn’t an immediate hit in big D. That the guy he replaced, Steve Nash, was winning MVPs for the Suns didn’t help matters. But in the 2005-06 season, with longtime Mav Michael Finley no longer in the picture, Terry emerged as a team leader and second scoring option – his 18.9 points per game in the playoffs keyed Dallas’ run to the Finals. With his role and future secure, look for Terry to carry that momentum into the season.
In his first season in big D, Terry posted pedestrian averages of 12.4 points and 5.4 assists; he had averaged better than 16 ppg for a talent-starved Atlanta Hawks team the previous year, but he didn’t have to share the ball with Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley and the rest in Hot-lanta. With a year of experience in Mark Cuban’s traveling circus under his belt, we expect Terry’s overall numbers to improve; the 17.5 ppg he posted in the 2005 playoffs seems like a reasonable target, particularly now that Finley has departed for parts unknown. It will be interesting to see if Terry’s improvement in three-point percentage (42% regular season, 49% in the playoffs) came from Dallas’ system or was just a statistical aberration – his career mark is 37%.
Terry replaces Steve Nash at the point for Dallas, but is a very different kind of player. Terry averaged 16.8 ppg for the Hawks last season, his lowest total since his rookie season. He should average around five assists and five rebounds per game. It remains to be seen how Terry can fit in with the sometimes chaotic Dallas offense; we may see Marquis Daniels, Michael Finley, and Dirk Nowitzki handle the ball more frequently than they did when Nash was in town. Terry put up good numbers in Atlanta, but it's hard to see him matching those totals on a much deeper Dallas roster.
Terry will either be the starter at shooting guard or point guard for the Hawks, depending on the development of Dan Dickau and rookie Boris Diaw. If no veteran is signed late in free agency, he'll be taking a lot of shots with the departure of Glenn Robinson. Expect his stats to return to his lofty levels of the previous two seasons.
