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NBA Injury Analysis: 2008 Portland Trailblazers Preview

Shannon McKeown

Shannon McKeown

Shannon McKeown is the VP of Advertising Sales and Basketball Editor for Rotowire.com. He's a two-time FSWA finalist for Fantasy Basketball writer of the year. He also covers the Pistons and Tigers for the site.


PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
By Shannon McKeown
RotoWire Writer



STATE OF THE FRANCHISE



Entering 2007-08, Portland was considered a team on the rise. Once Greg Oden went down with a season-ending knee injury, many thought the Blazers were lottery-bound, but coach Nate McMillan had other plans. Led by budding-superstar Brandon Roy, the Trailblazers started the season off with a 22-13 record and looked poised to make a surprising run at the playoffs. The Blazers were unable to sustain their early pace, finishing with a record of 41-41 and a ticket back to the lottery.


Last season's surprise revival in Rip City has the NBA community abuzz with hype for the Blazers entering this season. Aside from bringing back the core of a young improving team, Portland adds three first round talents - Oden, Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless. The additions of three Rookie-of-the-Year candidates make the Blazers one of the deepest teams in the NBA. With the Warriors, Clippers and Nuggets all seemingly taking a step back this offseason, expect Portland to reach the playoffs for the first time since the Jailblazers era.

PLAYING TIME DISTRIBUTION



McMillan will have his hands full trying to juggle his newfound depth. The two big guns from last year, Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, will continue to log around 35 minutes per game. Roy approached the 40 minute mark often last season, but with added depth and a surgically repaired knee, expect his minutes to drop a tad. Oden will get the majority of run at center, but with his injury history, kid gloves will be worn - 30 minutes per game is a reasonable estimate.


The other two players slotted in the starting lineup are Steve Blake and Martell Webster. The nod as starters doesn't mean an increase in minutes for either player. With other outside shooting options, Webster will have to earn his time; unless his defense improves expect around 25 minutes per. Blake's time will hinge on Bayless' development as a point guard. Bayless appears to be a better option at shooting guard, so Blake should see the majority of time at the one.


Travis Outlaw figures to see the most minutes off the bench. He played 26 minutes per game last season and should easily be able to top that number with his pending move to small forward. Bayless and Fernandez will share the 50 minutes left by the departures of Jarrett Jack and James Jones. Channing Frye will back up Aldridge at the four and should see a slight increase from the 17 minutes per game logged last season. Backup center Joel Przybilla will give Oden ample rest while cleaning the glass for close to 20 minutes. The rest of the bench - Sergio Rodriguez, Ike Diogu and Raef LaFrentz - will see plenty of mop-up duty and numerous DNP's.

PLAYER OUTLOOKS



Center



Greg Oden: The Blazers did the right thing last season by taking their time with Oden's return. The first-overall pick of the 2007 NBA Draft has been working out all offseason to rave reviews. He just recently started participating in a 5-on-5 scrimmages and looked more explosive than before his knee injury - the Portland brass seems very optimistic for a healthy return. At Ohio State, Oden showed that he's a defensive presence, averaging 3.3 blocks in his lone collegiate season. Oden will be the third or fourth scoring option when he is on the floor, so don't expect him to carry a fantasy team with his offensive production. Draft him for rebounds and blocks and pray for health.


Joel Przybilla: "The Vanilla Gorilla" won't garner much fantasy attention this season as a backup center coming off a season in which he averaged 4.8 points, but Przybilla provides surprise value with his ability to clean the glass - he finished 24th in the NBA with 8.4 rebounds per game last season. Owners in a crunch for boards should look in Przybilla's direction.

Forward



LaMarcus Aldridge: One of fantasy's breakout performers last season, Aldridge built on late season success in his rookie campaign and became the Blazers' second leading scorer in 2007-08. Aldridge was one of 17 players in the NBA to average over 17 points and seven rebounds per game. While it may seem like an addition of a low post scoring option like Oden would diminish Aldridge's scoring numbers, it should actually be a boon for the third-year power forward. Aldridge does most of his damage facing the basket. With Oden punishing the block, Aldridge should see plenty of opportunities to knock down short jumpers.


Channing Frye: After being traded to the Blazers in exchange for Zach Randolph, Frye was expected to have a large role with a young team. The season didn't go according to plans and Frye struggled to find his role with the Blazers, averaging career lows of 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds. At 6-11, 248, Frye lacks prototypical size to be a banger down low, so he has worked on moving his game towards the perimeter this offseason. The presence of Oden and Aldridge on the block has Frye looking to develop into a three-point specialist. If he proves to have a stroke from downtown, Frye could have some sneaky 3-point value from a big man, but surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle will cost Frye all of training camp and the first two weeks or so of the regular season, and could hurt his chances to make that transition.


Travis Outlaw: The 2007-08 campaign was a coming-out party for Outlaw. The Blazers' sixth-man provided a spark of the bench by averaging career highs in points (13.3), rebounds (4.6) and assists (1.3). The versatile forward spent most of his time at power forward last season, but McMillan plans to slide him to the three this year. The position change means that Outlaw could eventually play his way into the starting lineup, replacing Webster. Outlaw might not repeat as the third-leading scorer on the team, but any player who is capable of averaging over one 3-pointer, steal and block per game makes for an intriguing fantasy option.


Martell Webster: The 22-year-old swing man set career highs of 10.7 points and 3.9 rebounds while starting in 70 of 75 appearances last season. He has shown gradual improvement in his first three seasons and is slowly becoming a decent threat from long range, hitting 123 3-pointers at a 38.8 clip last season. Webster is still slotted in as the starter at small forward, but will have to improve his all-around play to hold on to the position. With the emergence of Outlaw and the arrivals of Fernandez and Bayless, Webster will have a hard time duplicating last year's production.


Ike Diogu: Diogu came over in the draft day deal that landed Bayless. He will provide depth to the Blazers' front-court, but the undersized power forward will have a tough time getting significant run. He's a defensive liability and will only find fantasy relevance if Portland's front-court has a rash of injuries.


Raef LaFrentz: LaFrentz will have surgery to repair a tear in his shoulder and is expected to be shelved until March at the earliest. His biggest chance at impacting the Blazers' season is as a tradeable commodity -- his $13 million contract expires after the season.

Guard



Brandon Roy: After bringing home Rookie of the Year honors in 2006-07, Roy made the jump to All Star in year two. He led the Blazers in points (19.1), assists (5.8) and steals (1.1). He should continue to develop his all-around game and lead the Blazers in most statistical categories, but owners should be weary of Roy's never-ending injury woes. The third-year guard underwent offseason knee surgery on a torn meniscus, but he is on schedule to be ready for the start of training camp. Injury concerns have plagued Roy since his college days at the University of Washington, but he always ends up playing. Watch his progress closely throughout training camp before using a high draft pick on him.


Rudy Fernandez: The Olympics were a coming-out party for Fernandez. The wiry 6-5 guard showed an explosive offensive skill-set against elite competition while playing for Spain in the 2008 Summer Games. He averaged 13.1 points while going 16-for-40 from beyond the arc. Fernandez will assume the role of a scoring punch off the bench for Portland. Defense will be troublesome for the 23-year-old, but he should provide plenty of value with points and three-pointers.


Steve Blake: Blake is the starter at point guard by default - the Blazers don't have any other options. Surrounded by scorers, Blake will be asked to create open shots for his teammates and hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. The Blazers' offense is run through Roy, so Blake's value further takes a hit as he doesn't see the assist totals expected from a point guard getting 30 minutes a night.


Jerryd Bayless: The Trailblazers may have made the steal of the draft when they acquired Bayless from the Pacers. Bayless was projected to go as high as top-five in the lottery, but he fell all the way down to the 11th overall selection. A collective thud could be heard across the NBA as general managers smacked their heads in disbelief, watching Bayless dominate the NBA Summer League. The shoot-first guard took home MVP honors in Las Vegas, averaging 29.8 points on 48.5 FG shooting. He will have to battle Fernandez and Outlaw for shots with the second unit, but is worth a late-round flier in most leagues.


Sergio Rodriguez: The third-year guard from Spain is one of only two true point guards on the Blazers roster - Blake being the other -- but with Bayless and Roy seeing minutes at point, Rodriguez will have trouble reaching the hardwood. He could see a slight increase in playing time due to the departure of Jack, but the increase would be too minimal for fantasy purposes.

Sleeper:



Jerryd Bayless: The most obvious choice here is Fernandez, but His international exposure in the Olympics will make him a draft day target on everyone's list. The better option would be to go after Bayless. At 6-3, 190, Bayless is too small to play anything other than point guard. The problem is that he is more of a shoot first guard than a prototypical floor general. If he can develop better distribution skills, Bayless could easily supplant Blake in the starting lineup by midseason.

Bust:


Martell Webster: Webster is in very serious danger of losing playing time this season. He is one of the Blazers only threats from deep, but with Outlaw breathing down his neck and Frye developing a 3-point shot, Webster's days in the starting lineup. A move to the bench would push him behind Fernandez and Bayless on the totem pole. The reward doesn't come close to outweighing the risk, avoid him if possible.

Article first appeared on 9/15/08