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DraftKings NBA: Value Plays for the Week

Dave Loughran

Dave Loughran

Dave “Loughy” Loughran is a successful Daily Fantasy Sports player who is also no stranger to the seasonal fantasy world. While educated at Temple University, he always managed to prepare his fantasy content before, during and after class. A stat junkie, Loughy digs deep, unearthing statistical gems to help fantasy enthusiasts thicken their pockets. Dave appears on the Shane Dennis show on KFH FM Radio Wichita every Thursday at 7:25ET to provide his weekly fantasy football analysis. Follow him on Twitter @Loughy_D.

DraftKings.com Value Plays for the Week

If you've never played on DraftKings.com before, we recommend reading our Daily Fantasy Basketball 101: How to Win on DraftKings strategy article.

GUARD

Aaron Brooks, PG, DEN, ($5,300): Brooks dismantled his former squad to the tune of 24 points (11-24 FG/2-7 3PM), 15 assists, eight rebounds, three steals and 61.5 DraftKings Points on Sunday night in Houston. While he did commit an unsightly seven turnovers, he also logged 47 minutes of floor time in the Nuggets' overtime loss, and should continue to be force fed playing time with Ty Lawson out of commission. While it's highly unlikely that Brooks will replicate Sunday's heroic performance, he is still a premier value option in what should be the highest scoring affair on the evening (222.5 O/U). His salary has jumped to $5,300, and although this isn't much of a discount, Brooks should easily exceed value (30 DKPTs) against the porous defense of Jeremy Lin. Denver is surrendering the most points (25.5 PPG) and third highest shooting percentage (.480 FG%) to opposing point guards over the past two weeks, so lock him in as a top value play on this 12 game Wednesday.

A Look Ahead: Ty Lawson won't be rushed back into action with only a handful of games remaining on the season, meaning Brooks should continue to see heavy run as the Nuggets' starting point guard. He's certainly a volatile play, and is capable of disappearing at times, however, the upside is enough to keep him on the radar so long as his salary doesn't increase.

Greivis Vasquez, PG/SG, TOR ($4,900): Vasquez has performed admirably in a spot start role for the injured Kyle Lowry, and should make for a fantastic play on Wednesday in the event that Lowry remains sidelined. At only $4,900, Vasquez is arguably the best price per value play available, as he'll square off against a Sixers club that's coughed up the most fantasy points (43.8 FPPG), rebounds (4.8 RPG) and assists (10 APG) to opposing point guards this season. He's averaging 17 points, five assists, 4.3 rebounds, one steal and 33.6 DKPTs over 37 minutes per game since entering the starting lineup three games back, and can be expected to produce similar numbers against Philadelphia if Lowry is inactive.

NOTE: Kyle Lowry ($7,700) is an intriguing GPP play on Wednesday if he is deemed healthy enough to play, as his $7,700 price tag is incredibly low, and his splits against the 76ers this season (3 GP/41.5 DKPPG) are more than appealing. A minutes restriction is certainly a concern, however, so be sure to monitor his status as we inch closer to tipoff.

EDIT: Kyle Lowry is expected to play against the Sixers, but will be on a minutes restriction. This depresses the value of both Lowry and Greivis Vasquez, however, Vasquez looks to retain plenty of appeal, as he should log around 30 minutes on the hardwood Wednesday night, and that's more than enough time to produce against a deplorable 76ers defense.

A Look Ahead: The Raptors will likely want to get Lowry back onto the court within the next couple of days, as they continue to battle for playoff position. With that being said, both Lowry and Vasquez have some enticing matchups ahead of them (NYK, DET, MIL, NYK), creating favorable conditions for whoever starts.

Terrence Ross, SG/SF, TOR ($4,100): Ross has been logging heavy minutes lately, and while his volatile nature can be quite frustrating at times, it's difficult to imagine him not meeting value on Wednesday in a home tilt with the Sixers. Ross is a boom/bust candidate in plus matchups, or any matchup for that matter, as evidenced by his three games with 33-plus DKPTs and three games with fewer than 13 DKPTs over his last seven contests. He is averaging a serviceable 17 points and 27 DKPTs per game through three meetings with Philadelphia this season, and shouldn't produce anything less than value (24 DKPTs) given that he sees in the neighborhood of 30 minutes on Wednesday.

A Look Ahead: Ross is a matchup based play, as his low floor makes him a non-option against difficult opponents. Ross, along with the rest of the Toronto Raptors, will face sub-par defensive units in the coming week, making him a viable value option at $4,100.

Best of the Rest: Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET ($4,600)

FORWARD

Terrence Jones, SF/PF, HOU ($4,700): Jones has easily been one of the most frustrating fantasy options over the past couple months, as his erratic minutes and subsequent production have drastically lessened his value. That being said, Jones' salary has plummeted to $4,700, and he's nearly impossible to overlook at that price against the Nuggets, who have allowed the second most points (22.9 PPG) and third most fantasy points (46 FPPG) to opposing power forwards this season. He logged only 24 minutes of court time against Denver over the weekend, but still managed to churn out a serviceable 29.75 DKPTs on 14 points, five rebounds, three blocks and two steals. Jones went on Tuesday night against the lowly Lakers (33 PTs/13-18 FG), and should look to follow that up with an encore performance in Denver on Wednesday.

A Look Ahead: With only a few games left in the 2013-14 season, we've all become accustomed to witnessing the Terrence Jones disappearing act. With fingers crossed, I'd like to think this show is over, and Jones will now be a consistent 30-35 DKPPG producer to close out the season. Regardless, he's worth the gamble at only $4,700.

James Johnson, SF/PF, MEM ($3,100): Johnson is one of the riskiest options available on Wednesday night, but he makes for an intriguing punt play at the power forward position, as Tayshaun Prince's ankle could keep him on the sidelines. Johnson has proven to be one of the better fantasy point per minute producers in the league, averaging 18 DKPTs on 18 MPG this season. He came off the bench on Sunday to posted 20 points, five rebounds and 31.25 DKPTs through 32 minutes of work, and although this playing time is extremely erratic, Johnson possesses 30 fantasy point potential in under 20 minutes of playing time. He isn't an advisable play in anything other than GPPs, and he presents considerable risk even in that format, but there's a certain appeal attached to someone who requires such little time to make an impact.

A Look Ahead: The wait and see approach might be best suited for Johnson, as Wednesday night will shed plenty of light on his fantasy value going forward. If Prince remains sidelined, Johnson could offer value at minimum salary, especially on slow nights like this upcoming Sunday.

Travis Outlaw, SF/PF, SAC ($3,000): Outlaw started in place of Rudy Gay on Tuesday and didn't disappoint, as he finished with 24 points and 36.25 DKPTs through 37 minutes of work. An ailing back and an expecting wife could keep Gay sidelined on Wednesday in Portland, potentially opening the door to another start and extended minutes for Outlaw. Reggie Evans is also dealing with back issues, and another DNP for him could result in a guaranteed 35-plus minutes for Outlaw. The upside is limited, but opportunity generally equals production in fantasy land, so don't hesitate to give Outlaw a look, as his bottom barrel price tag will open up plenty of room throughout the remainder of your lineup.

A Look Ahead: Outlaw could continue to see ample playing time over the remaining few games of the season, as Rudy Gay could be absent from several contests with the birth of his child coming any day now. The minimum salary price tag makes him a serviceable value play, requiring a mere 17 DKPTs to meet value.

Best of the Rest: Robbie Hummel, SF/PF, MIN ($3,000)

CENTER

Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR ($6,100): Valanciunas may be the most appealing lower mid-range play available Wednesday night, as he'll face off against a Sixers squad that's been incapable of defending opposing bigs. As the season draws closer to an end, Philadelphia has solidified themselves as one of the worst in NBA history, and their frontcourt defense supports that claim, as they're surrendering 49.2 FPPG (29th), 20.9 PPG (29th), 15.4 RPG (28th), 2.9 APG (27th), 1.4 SPG (27th) and 3 BPG (30th) to the center position. Valanciunas is finally beginning to produce the numbers that many of us had anticipated before the season started, with per game averages of 17 points, 10 rebounds and 33 DKPTs over his last seven starts. He should face little resistance in his attempts to exceed those totals in a home tilt with Philadelphia, where the over/under is set at a healthy 206.5.

A Look Ahead: Valanciunas is finally receiving consistent playing time, with 30-plus minutes played in nine of his last ten starts. He'll remain a quality option with a respectable price tag to close out the season.

Best of the Rest: Kyle O'Quinn, PF/C, ORL ($4,400); Amir Johnson, PF/C, TOR ($4,000); Patrick Patterson, PF/C, TOR ($3,600)

One Final Note: Frank Vogel has decided to rest the entire Pacers starting lineup tonight, as George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Paul George, David West and Roy Hibbert will enjoy Wednesday's festivities from the sidelines. With that in mind, Indiana reserves such as Evan Turner ($4,600), Luis Scola ($3,300) and Ian Mahinmi ($3,000) should all warrant consideration against the Milwaukee Bucks.

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