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NBA Daily Games Cheat Sheet: Tuesday

Jerry Donabedian

Jerry Donabedian

Jerry Donabedian writes about fantasy sports for RotoWire.

TEAM ANALYSIS

Defenses to Avoid
Oklahoma City at Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies have succeeded in forcing the Thunder into low-scoring, slow-paced games, with the series' 91.25 pace ranking sixth among the eight first-round matchups, and OKC scoring just 99.5 points per 100 possessions. A trio of overtime games have meant that a bunch of players are still getting their stats, but don't be fooled by the juiced-up minute totals. We obviously can't expect Game 5 to go into overtime, and the average score in this series has been OKC 98- MEM 96, despite the fact that three of the four games featured an extra period. Wizards-Bulls actually has a lower over/under (184), but Washington surprisingly hasn't had much trouble scoring on Chicago. The Grizzlies-Thunder over/under isn't much higher at a mere 187, and the Griz seem to have the Thunder confused, at least on one end of the floor.

Offenses to Use
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers have been put in a tough situation, but there's no need to jump to conclusions after one bad game. This is still one of the league's two or three best offensive teams, and the over/under for Clips-Dubs (211) is leaps and bounds above the other two games on Tuesday's slate. Unfortunately, the Clippers are better for rostering stars than bargain-bin guys, and it's hard to get the former without some of the latter. With Tuesday's contests lacking in viable sub-$4700 options, it'll be very difficult to get more than one of LA's big three on to your team. Settling for one isn't so bad, and the Clips also have one of the few usable guys in the $4500-5000 range.

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Point Guard
John Wall, WAS (at CHI), PG, ($7800): Overshadowed by both Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza, Wall's had a surprisingly quiet series, given that he's the star player on a team that's up 3-1. Still, the Wizard's leading man has produced a respectable 39 DK points per game, despite shooting just 36.2 percent from the field. He'll provide solid value if he merely hits the 39 mark, but I'm eyeballing something a bit more. Wall has gotten to the line 8.8 times per game in the series, as his Wiz have exposed the Bulls' relatively shaky perimeter D. With a lack of bargain options on Tuesday's slate, many daily gamers will be limited to secondary stars like Wall, rather than the Curry/Durant/Paul type. Wall is averaging 41.5 DK points per game this season, so I'd hardly call this settling. At $7800, the former UK Wildcat would be a better value than any of the aforementioned trio, even if there were some dirt-cheap options available to balance things out.

Other suggestions: Russell Westbrook, OKC (vs. MEM), PG, ($9200)

Shooting Guard
Tony Allen, MEM (at OKC), SG/SF, ($5100): The lack of offensive skill means a dud could be on the horizon, but Allen's still an attractive play at this price, having logged 30+ minutes in each of the first four games of the series. He'll likely land right around that 30-minute range Tuesday, which makes him a good bet to top 25 DK points, a mark he comfortably surpassed in each of the last three games. Allen's raised price has taken him out of must-play territory, but he's still one of the cheapest players with a real chance at putting together a big game.

Other suggestions: Jamal Crawford, LAC (vs. GSW), PG/SG, ($4700)

Small Forward
Draymond Green, GSW (at LAC), SF, ($5500): Green moved into the starting lineup for Game 4, and he logged an impressive 41 minutes, after landing at 33 minutes in Game 3. With his playing time trending in the right direction, and his starting status for Game 5 essentially confirmed, the bulky forward should provide excellent value for at least one more game. Green could very well log 35 minutes and post a double-double, but he also provides more than you might think in the other categories. Including the playoffs, he's averaging 1.9 assists, 0.9 blocks and 1.2 steals in just 22.2 minutes per game this season.
Other suggestions: Trevor Ariza, WAS (at CHI), SG/SF, ($6300)

Power Forward
Serge Ibaka, OKC (vs. MEM), PF/C, ($7700): Ibaka gave daily gamers solid production for his price in three of the first four games, but he did so rather quietly, and all the overtimes certainly helped. However, even if we account for the OT impact, Mr. Ibaka should land about 5 minutes beyond his regular-season average of 32.9 minutes Tuesday. With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant struggling to shoot the ball efficiently, the Thunder would be wise to find more shots for Ibaka, who is 24-of-41 (58.5 percent) from the field in this series. Reggie Jackson ($4900) was huge in Game 4, but Ibaka is much more likely to be the team's productive third fiddle in Game 5. It's no coincide that my favorite Thunder player for Tuesday is the one who's least reliant on points and assists for his fantasy production.

Other suggestions: Nene, WAS (at CHI), PF/C, ($6600)

Center
DeAndre Jordan, LAC (vs. GSW), C, ($7700): Playing in what has easily been the first round's fastest-paced series, Jordan has a very real chance at 20 boards each night, assuming he stays out of foul trouble. Don't be discouraged by his Game 4 dud (12 DK points), as the Clippers were simply awful, and figure to play much better Tuesday. I also like Blake Griffin ($9800) against the Dubs' Lee-Green frontcourt pairing, but Jordan comes at a much more affordable price, while still providing 50+ DK-point upside.

Other suggestions: Marc Gasol, MEM (at OKC), C, ($7700)

INJURY REPORT

Out
Nick Calathes is suspended for violating the NBA's drug policy.
Andrew Bogut (ribs) remains out indefinitely.

Game-Time Decision
Mike Dunleavy (thumb) practiced Monday and will play Tuesday.
Festus Ezeli (knee) may be able to play soon but isn't expected to play Tuesday.
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