This article is part of our The Prospect Post series.
IS Zach LaVine READY TO START?
This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson
Zach LaVine was taken with the 13th pick in this summer's draft as something of a lottery ticket. The case could be made that he was the best athlete in the draft, but his game lacked refinement. He was labeled a point guard, despite averaging more rebounds (2.5 rpg) than assists (1.8 apg) in his freshman year at UCLA. But now, with Ricky Rubio expected to miss a couple months after suffering a significant left ankle sprain, coach Flip Saunders has decided to move LaVine out of the frying pan and into the fire. The 19-year-old had seen a total of 13 minutes in the T-Wolves' first four games, but he was thrust into the starting lineup, playing 26 minutes Nov. 8 in Miami. Saunders has said that LaVine will be the starter while Rubio is out, despite 11-year veteran Mo Williams serving as perhaps a more obvious candidate to jump into a larger role at the point. So, from a fantasy perspective, the obvious question is, will LaVine be able to hold on to the starting job, and if he does, what kind of production will he provide? For starters, let's examine what he
IS Zach LaVine READY TO START?
This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson
Zach LaVine was taken with the 13th pick in this summer's draft as something of a lottery ticket. The case could be made that he was the best athlete in the draft, but his game lacked refinement. He was labeled a point guard, despite averaging more rebounds (2.5 rpg) than assists (1.8 apg) in his freshman year at UCLA. But now, with Ricky Rubio expected to miss a couple months after suffering a significant left ankle sprain, coach Flip Saunders has decided to move LaVine out of the frying pan and into the fire. The 19-year-old had seen a total of 13 minutes in the T-Wolves' first four games, but he was thrust into the starting lineup, playing 26 minutes Nov. 8 in Miami. Saunders has said that LaVine will be the starter while Rubio is out, despite 11-year veteran Mo Williams serving as perhaps a more obvious candidate to jump into a larger role at the point. So, from a fantasy perspective, the obvious question is, will LaVine be able to hold on to the starting job, and if he does, what kind of production will he provide? For starters, let's examine what he did in that start against the Heat:
Observations:
- At the 0:50 mark, we see LaVine ignore his man (Norris Cole) who streaks to the corner to spot up as a three-point option while Dwyane Wade drives unsuccessfully against Kevin Martin. Wade should have hit the wide open Cole for a three on the play, but instead he was thwarted by Martin's excellent defense on the play. What LaVine was doing/thinking here is up for debate. He didn't provide help defense, and Martin didn't need help. LaVine just kind of stands there behind Martin, acting as a second line of defense. This could be a stretch, but if he was pulling the classic Kevin Love move of abandoning his mark to get in position for a potential rebound, then fantasy owners should get excited. One of the more appealing aspects of LaVine's game is his potential to be an above-average rebounder for his position, and if he is willing to sacrifice defense for rebounds, as some NBA players do, then he should offer five-to-seven rebounds if he is playing close to 30 minutes per game (he had six boards in this game).
- At the 1:15 mark and the 2:15 mark we get a couple deep made pull-up jumpers. A point guard who can efficiently hit deep jump shots off the dribble is a valuable commodity, and the move is relatively unguardable in this case, given LaVine's burst off the dribble. Teams will be more than willing to give him some space to shoot, especially early in his career, but he hit 37.5 of his three-pointers in college, so he should be able to make the defense pay enough for it to be considered a high-percentage shot. He also has a quick, high release, which will allow him to get the shot off even if the defender is playing up and relying on help defense in case LaVine decides to drive. He averaged 1.3 three-pointers in 24.4 minutes per game in college, and fantasy owners should be able to expect 1.5 treys per game from LaVine as long as he remains the starter.
- At the 1:30, 2:43 and 2:52 marks, we see LaVine aggressively go for rebounds with teammates in the vicinity. He's not quite stealing rebounds, but it is clear that he has the drive and athleticism to go after the ball in the air, and he will win those rebounds more often than not. This may not sound like much, but there are plenty of point guards who are more than happy to let their big men clean up the glass. This does not seem to be the case with LaVine, which is another reason to like his potential for being an above average contributor in rebounds for his position.
- At the 1:45 mark and the 2:25 mark we see LaVine's top two assists of the game. On the first one he grabs a rebound and leads what amounts to a five-on-five fast break, recognizing a defensive breakdown by the Heat and finding Thaddeus Young with a nifty feed for an uncontested dunk. On the second occasion, he again leads a non-advantageous fast break (this time it is three-on-four) and is able to exploit another defensive breakdown, splitting defenders with a 20-foot pass to Andrew Wiggins for a relatively uncontested dunk. While it is a good sign that LaVine can recognize defensive lapses in transition, both of these assists were primarily the product of poor defense, and the passes were not particularly difficult. Assists will not be a category that LaVine excels in right away, and owners should only expect four or five dimes per game while he is the starter.
The rookie finished with five points (2-5 FG, 1-2 3Pt), six rebounds, four assists and one steal with two turnovers in 26 minutes in his first start. He is so long and lean, that it looks like you are watching a 6-foot-7 player, and not a 6-foot-5 player and we have yet to fully experience the highlight dunk show that will eventually be the thing most casual NBA fans come to know LaVine for. The way he looks physically, and the flashy plays he is capable of making could potentially inflate his perceived fantasy value, sort of in the same manner as Giannis Antetokounmpo. Obviously any starting point guard will be of some use in assists, and as RotoWire's Jeff Stotts noted, there are reasons to think the T-Wolves might be a little extra cautious with Rubio, given his injury history and his playing style, so an eight week absence seems like a moderate estimate. But distributing and scoring in bunches will not be LaVine's strengths. On a positive note, in addition to rebounding and three-point shooting, he figures to be pretty useful in steals. LaVine averaged 0.9 steals per game in college, and his length and apparent willingness to sacrifice sound defense to be opportunistic should translate into more than a steal per game while he is starting. None of this translates to a top-100 fantasy player in the interim, but he is someone who should be owned in most formats. Williams remains just as appealing from a fantasy perspective, as he profiles as a better distributor and overall scorer off the bench.
