The Prospect Post: Duke and Wisconsin's Lottery Picks

EVALUATING WISCONSIN'S FUTURE PROS

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

Wednesday night's matchup of Duke traveling to Wisconsin was the biggest game so far this season, and had the potential to hold up as the best game of the entire regular season. It featured two no-doubt top-four teams, and the two best big men in the land, in Duke's Jahlil Okafor, whom I covered a couple weeks ago here, and Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky.

In addition to Okafor and Kaminsky, Duke's Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones, along with Wisconsin's Sam Dekker, round out a fivesome of potential lottery picks in June's draft, that made Wednesday's game a real treat for draft junkies.

Unfortunately, Wisconsin didn't hold up their end, and ended up losing by 10, which almost never happens in the Kohl Center.

First, some brief observations on Duke's trio two weeks after I first watched them against a lesser Michigan State team:

Jahlil Okafor: He didn't get many touches, as Wisconsin was clearly trying to neutralize him, hitting Okafor with a double team within the first few minutes. The highlight of his night was a ridiculous face-up bank shot from 12 feet. It was the type of shot that could win a game of HORSE, if he called the bank swish, and there was a defender right on him. Okafor finished 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting with six rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block in 27 minutes, and he remains a lock to be the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.

Justise Winslow: This is a player who is quickly becoming one of my favorite prospects, both in terms of watching him play now and in terms of dreaming on his potential. Winslow's numbers from this game don't jump off the page, but he demonstrated the ability to play suffocating defense whenever his mark had the ball. His incredible size and athleticism on the wing reminds one of Andre Iguodala when he first came into the league. Right now, he would come off the board in the first five picks of the draft.

Tyus Jones: The best player in Wednesday's game was Jones, and it was not really that close. Questions have been raised about whether he has the size (6-foot-1, 190 pounds) to be a dominant point guard at the next level, but it is getting harder and harder to bet against Jones. He has the speed, athleticism, body control, decision-making, defense and shooting to be a prototype at the position. If size is the only knock, then I'll bet heavy on this player making it big. ESPN's Jay Bilas continued to echo the sentiment that Jones looked mature beyond his years, and he was quite right. Jones was the leader of the Blue Devils, both in his play and his interactions with teammates. He finished with a team-high 22 points (7-11 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 6-8 FT), six rebounds, four assists and one turnover in 37 minutes. It should not come as a surprise if the first team without a true franchise point guard outside the top-3 picks in the draft pops the young floor general.

Now, on to Wisconsin's two potential lottery picks:

Frank Kaminsky: The Badgers' versatile seven-footer had a solid stat line, but his night could have been much better. Finishing around the rim was a problem for Kaminsky, something that typically is not the case. He missed several looks in close, leading to a 5-of-12 shooting performance from the field. Kaminsky also left a little to be desired on the defensive end. He will be competent defending lesser bigs at the next level, but he won't ever be an asset on that end of the court. Still, he remains the best pro prospect on the Badgers in my eyes -- an opinion that is not as widespread on the internet, but something that has been clear to me since his dismantling of Arizona's front line in the Elite Eight last year. Kaminsky's quick first step was not on display much Wednesday, but it remains my favorite trait of his. Everybody knows about his impressive three-point shooting, which, in itself makes him a lock to have a nice NBA career (see Matt Bonner). But the fact that as a seven-footer he can blow by defenders who close out on him opens up a whole different world of possibilities. He also has as many post moves as many of the centers in the NBA. Okafor still has the edge on him in this department, but Kaminsky had several standout moves down low, he just failed to finish on some of them. In addition to being a handful down low, he is also great at passing out of a double team, meaning he can operate as a hub for an offense. Kaminsky finished with 17 points, nine rebounds, two assists, two three-pointers, and a block in 35 minutes, while committing just two fouls and two turnovers. The fact that he posted those numbers while struggling for much of the game is a very good sign. It may take an imaginative front office to use an early pick on him, as there are not a lot of good NBA comps, but if Mehmet Okur is the worst-case scenario, then there's a strong case to use a top-8 pick on Kaminsky.

Sam Dekker: This is the kind of player who will blow the minds of evaluators at the draft combine. Dekker is an elite athlete with a 6-foot-9, 229 pound frame, physically capable of playing either forward position, but probably best suited to play the three. He is a very efficient shooter, inside and outside the three-point line. All told, he offers the exact package that many NBA teams crave in a small forward. Still, I'm waiting to be wowed by Dekker for an entire game. He tends to disappear at times, and Wednesday's game was no different. For all the people who bagged on Andrew Wiggins for disappearing in games last year at Kansas, I hear none of the same complaints about Dekker, even though he is two years older than Wiggins was last year. There were long stretches Wednesday where it was not clear that he was on the court. That could be explained by his coaches/teammates failing to get him involved, but that is a bogus excuse for a junior with his tools. It could also be rationalized by the aforementioned Winslow bottling him up, but if that is the case, then the two players don't really belong in the same conversation, given Dekker's extreme edge in experience. He finished with five points, four rebounds, one assist and one three-pointer in 24 minutes. For all of the physical/athletic attributes mentioned above, the conventional wisdom seems to be that he will be the first Wisconsin player off the board in next year's draft, but there is some bust potential here, and in my mind, he not only lacks Kaminsky's upside, but he also lacks his teammate's floor. There will be a team that takes Dekker in the lottery based on his tools, but of the five future top-15 picks in Wednesday's game, Dekker is my least favorite pro prospect.