This article is part of our The Prospect Post series.
In the mock lottery I posted in this space last week, Frank Kaminsky was the fourth center taken, coming off the board with the 11th-overall pick. The three centers taken ahead of him in the first mock will go ahead of him in the second, third and fourth mock (if I do that many), unless one of them sustains a significant injury between now and the draft. Jahlil Okafor is a monster, and is the heavy favorite to be taken first overall. Karl-Anthony Towns has probably played himself to the No. 2 spot on most draft boards, and looks like a potential franchise-changing piece. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Towns is the only player in the draft who could potentially leap Okafor and go first overall, though the odds of that happening are very low. Willie Cauley-Stein has the length, size and athleticism that NBA teams crave in the paint. He profiles as a Marcus Camby or Tyson Chandler-level defensive force who could challenge for the all-defensive team during his peak years. Cauley-Stein could go anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8 overall, depending on how the lottery shakes out and how he plays in the
In the mock lottery I posted in this space last week, Frank Kaminsky was the fourth center taken, coming off the board with the 11th-overall pick. The three centers taken ahead of him in the first mock will go ahead of him in the second, third and fourth mock (if I do that many), unless one of them sustains a significant injury between now and the draft. Jahlil Okafor is a monster, and is the heavy favorite to be taken first overall. Karl-Anthony Towns has probably played himself to the No. 2 spot on most draft boards, and looks like a potential franchise-changing piece. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Towns is the only player in the draft who could potentially leap Okafor and go first overall, though the odds of that happening are very low. Willie Cauley-Stein has the length, size and athleticism that NBA teams crave in the paint. He profiles as a Marcus Camby or Tyson Chandler-level defensive force who could challenge for the all-defensive team during his peak years. Cauley-Stein could go anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8 overall, depending on how the lottery shakes out and how he plays in the NCAA tournament.
This brings us to Kaminsky, who seems like a lock to be taken in the lottery at this point, but his range inside the lottery could really fluctuate depending on how he plays against elite competition in the tournament and how he measures in the speed and agility drills at the draft combine. It would be fascinating to be a fly on the wall when teams discuss how they think Kaminsky's game will translate to the next level.
This season he leads NCAA Division I players in player efficiency rating (35.6), win shares (7.6) and win shares per 40 minutes (.323). He also ranks in the top-20 in effective field-goal percentage (60 percent), defensive rebound percentage (25.8 percent), offensive rating (130.9), offensive win shares (5.1) and defensive win shares (2.5). Okafor also ranks in the top-20 in eight relevant categories, but Kaminsky's rankings, given where he ranks and the nature of the categories, are more impressive in my opinion. I'm obviously not saying Kaminsky will be the better pro, but there is a strong case to be made that he has had a better year than Okafor, which is perfectly understandable, as Kaminsky is a senior and Okafor is a freshman.
Leading the nation in PER, win shares and win shares per 40 minutes is no small feat. For reference, the last player to do so was Anthony Davis in 2011-12. Records on PER and win shares per 40 minutes are not kept far enough back to find another such player, but here is the list of players that have led college basketball in win shares in each of the last 10 seasons (starting with the least recent): Andrew Bogut, Paul Millsap, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Stephen Curry, Jon Scheyer, Kemba Walker, Anthony Davis, Trey Burke and Shabazz Napier.
It seems there are four ways to lead the NCAA in win shares:
1. Be a dominant post player
2. Be a ball-dominant guard
3. Be a future NBA All-Star playing in the WAC (Paul Millsap)
4. Be Kevin Durant
Kaminsky falls into the first category, which lumps him in with Bogut, Love and Davis.
Obviously Kaminsky is not the defender that Bogut or Davis were/are, and he is not the rebounder that Love was/is. But he is a much better all-around scorer than any of those three players were when they entered the league. He has improved on every relevant offensive rate statistic from last season to this season, and is shooting 57.1 percent from the field, 42.1 percent from behind the three-point line and 76 percent from the free-throw line in conference play. This year marks his worst success rate from the free-throw line of his career, and if he shot like he did last year from the charity stripe, we would be looking at a 50/40/80 year.
In my estimation, here is the floor and ceiling on Kaminsky's NBA career:
FLOOR
Sure they're both white centers who can shoot, so it seems like a convenient comp, but their college numbers are actually quite similar. Here are their advanced stats from their final years in college:
| Player | PER | TS% | TRB% | BLK% | OWE | DWS | WS/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Olynyk | 36.2 | 67.5 | 16.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2 | 0.318 |
| Frank Kaminsky | 35.6 | 63.2 | 16.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.323 |
Naturally, Kaminsky playing against Big Ten competition and Olynyk playing against WCC competition led to Olynyk having an easier path to posting efficient rate statistics, but Kaminsky also had an extra year of experience over Olynyk, so it's somewhat comparable. The big difference is that Kaminsky is taking 2.6 three-pointers and hitting at a 42.1 percent clip, while Olynyk was only attempting 0.9 three-pointers per game in his last year at Gonzaga, hitting at a 30 percent rate. Considering Olynyk now shoots 35.3 percent on 2.6 attempts per game from three-point range as a second-year pro, it is reasonable to think Kaminsky could enter the league playing at a level similar to what we are seeing from Olynyk now. This is the worst realistic outcome I can imagine for Kaminsky as a pro.
CEILING
A poor man's Dirk Nowitzki
It may be blasphemy to even mention Nowitzki with regard to a player who probably won't be a top-five pick in this year's draft, but hear me out. Kaminsky is great in the post, with more moves down low than anyone in college, save Okafor.
This seems to lead the uninformed to view him as a plodder, but there is actually much more to his game.
Like Nowitzki, Kaminsky has no problem getting around similarly sized players on the dribble if they opt to guard him straight up on the perimeter or at the elbow.
He also has no problem shooting over anyone who gives him space or against undersized threes and fours that are deployed against him on the perimeter -- another trait he shares with Nowitzki.
Now, Nowitzki is the best shooting big man of all-time, so Kaminsky won't be able to be as efficient with his shot as Nowitzki, quite clearly. There is also no way that Kaminsky will be able to develop that classic Nowitzki one-foot fadeaway from 15 feet, but that should not be the expectation. They are very similar players in that they are both especially gifted from three-point range as seven-footers, but also have what it takes to score at will around the hoop. They are both matchup nightmares, plain and simple. It is anyone's guess where Kaminsky will go in the draft, but I'm betting there is a team out there who considers him the type of forward/center they can build an offense around. For now, just sit back and enjoy the last 5-10 games of an outstanding college career for Frank the Tank.
