This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how last week's recommendations fared.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Positional Matchups: Of the 10 teams in action Thursday, eight rank in the top half of the league for defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. Four teams, The Jazz, Pacers, Rockets, and Bucks, rank in the top six. With the exception of the Lakers-Knicks matchup discussed below, all of the matchups are, generally speaking, intimidating. Instead of avoiding one team or another Thursday, pay extra attention to each team's strengths or weaknesses. Try to avoid wings facing the Spurs (and Kawhi Leonard). Try to avoid big men, especially centers, who will have to face the Grizzlies (and Marc Gasol) or the Jazz (and Rudy Gobert). The Bucks have caused problems for opposing guards all season.
Offenses to Use
New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers: The Knicks are very bad, and mostly in ways that improves the fantasy value of their opponents. Since the All-Star break, they allow more points per game than anyone but the Kings. Their opponents rank in the top seven in field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Only six teams grab a smaller share of available rebounds.
One caveat: The Knicks get blocked or stolen from very rarely, so be careful with Lakers who depend on those supplemental stats to maintain their value, specifically Ed Davis, and, to a lesser extent, Jeremy Lin.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: None
Second game of a back-to-back: Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Langston Galloway, NY (at LAL), PG, ($4,200): As a general rule, using a guard facing the Lakers is a good idea. This principle becomes extra important in light of all the strong defenses highlighted in the "defenses to avoid" above. On Tuesday, Galloway struggled while teammate Alexey Shved shined. In the context of the past month, I think Tuesday was the exception, and that Galloway is the safer bet. He's also the cheaper option, by $800.
Other suggestions: Jordan Clarkson, LAL (vs NY), PG, ($5,400)
Shooting Guard
J.R. Smith, CLE (at SA), SG, ($5,600): DraftKings rates the Spurs as the third most challenging opponent for a shooting guard, but don't let that scare you. Kawhi Leonard played a big role in establishing that ranking, and he is far more likely to spend his time focusing on LeBron James. As long as we're not worried about the matchup, this price is a bargain for Smith, who has exceeded 30 fantasy points in half his appearances since the break.
Other suggestions: Danny Green, SA (vs CLE), SG, ($5,000); Khris Middleton, MIL (at IND), SG, ($6,300)
Small Forward
Cleanthony Early, NY (at LAL), SF, ($3,100): Early is a gamble. Roughly half the time, he does nothing other than waste a valuable roster space. The other half of the time, however, he provides major profits, especially considering his near-minimum price. If Early hits, then using him saves tons of salary cap space while also providing cover for some near-misses elsewhere. So, do you feel lucky?
Solomon Hill, IND (vs MIL), SF, ($3,800): Higher cost, higher likelihood of reward, but same basic risk that Early provides, and without the cushy opponent. Hill's stinkers occur significantly less often, but they can be just as harmful.
Other suggestions: Jeff Green, MEM (at WAS), SF, ($5,000)
Power Forward
Tarik Black, LAL (at NY), PF, ($3,300): Black has averaged 24 minutes, 8.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 20.5 fantasy points over the past two games. The Lakers are tinkering with their rotation, and Black has taken advantage of the opportunity he is being given. If that workload continues Thursday, which is not a given, then Black should be in good shape against an underwhelming Knicks frontcourt.
Other suggestions: Kevin Love, CLE (at SA), PF, ($7,600)
Center
Jordan Hill, LAL (vs NY), C, ($5,400): A tough night for centers, since many of the best options are either overpriced (like Rudy Gobert) or facing a tough opponent (like Marcin Gortat against Gasol). Hill's price is mostly fair, and the favorable opponent pushes him over the top.
Other suggestions: None.
INJURY REPORT
Out
Shawn Marion (hip)
Dwight Howard (knee)
Kostas Papanikolaou (ankle)
Paul George (leg)
Nick Young (knee)
Jose Calderon (Achilles)
Kris Humphries (groin)
Garrett Temple (hamstring)
Game-Time Decision
Roy Hibbert (elbow) is expected to play Thursday.
C.J. Miles (foot) is expected to play Thursday.
Wesley Johnson (calf) is expected to play Thursday.
Jeremy Lin (thigh) is expected to play Thursday.
Quincy Acy (knee) is a game-time decision.
Tim Hardaway (back) is a game-time decision.
Jerryd Bayless (ankle) is questionable.
Tim Duncan (elbow) is expected to play Thursday.
Manu Ginobili (illness) is expected to play Thursday.
Gordon Hayward (back) is questionable.
