This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
Stephen Curry is in the middle of a magical season. The reigning MVP is shooting and scoring at a rate that has never been seen before, his team just lost their first game of the season midway through DECEMBER, and barring injury or meteor strike, he has already lapped the field on his way to a second straight MVP.
But where does Curry's season fall into the pantheon of great seasons in league history?
To get the real answer we'll have to wait until next summer. But just in case this dream scenario doesn't last, let's take a moment now to reflect on how ridiculous he has been through the first third of the season.
After the 2004 season, the NBA changed the rules to crack down on hand-checks and promote more free-flowing offense. They got their wish, and in the last decade, perimeter offensive players have become much more important to team success. Partially because of this, we have seen some of the best seasons by point guards in NBA history. Before Curry came of age, the two best point guard seasons of the last decade belonged to two-time MVP Steve Nash and The Maestro himself, Chris Paul. So, comparing best to best, this is how 2016 Curry (so far) compares with 2007 Steve Nash and 2009 Chris Paul:
Per 100 possessions:
- Nash 2007: 26.4 points (65.4% TS), 16.5 assists (5.4 TOs), 5.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 2.9 3-ptrs
- Paul 2009: 32.4 points (59.9% TS), 15.7 assists (4.2
Stephen Curry is in the middle of a magical season. The reigning MVP is shooting and scoring at a rate that has never been seen before, his team just lost their first game of the season midway through DECEMBER, and barring injury or meteor strike, he has already lapped the field on his way to a second straight MVP.
But where does Curry's season fall into the pantheon of great seasons in league history?
To get the real answer we'll have to wait until next summer. But just in case this dream scenario doesn't last, let's take a moment now to reflect on how ridiculous he has been through the first third of the season.
After the 2004 season, the NBA changed the rules to crack down on hand-checks and promote more free-flowing offense. They got their wish, and in the last decade, perimeter offensive players have become much more important to team success. Partially because of this, we have seen some of the best seasons by point guards in NBA history. Before Curry came of age, the two best point guard seasons of the last decade belonged to two-time MVP Steve Nash and The Maestro himself, Chris Paul. So, comparing best to best, this is how 2016 Curry (so far) compares with 2007 Steve Nash and 2009 Chris Paul:
Per 100 possessions:
- Nash 2007: 26.4 points (65.4% TS), 16.5 assists (5.4 TOs), 5.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 2.9 3-ptrs
- Paul 2009: 32.4 points (59.9% TS), 15.7 assists (4.2 TOs), 7.9 rebounds, 3.9 steals, 1.2 3-ptrs
- Curry 2015: 44.7 points (68.8% TS), 8.4 assists (5.2 TOs), 7.4 rebounds, 3.0 steals, 7.0 3-ptrs
Some things jump out immediately: as you would expect, Nash and Paul are "true" floor general point guards. Both of them average a lot of assists, with a three or four to one assist:turnover ratio. Both are very good scorers, with good volume on excellent shooting percentages (true shooting percentages anywhere near 60 percent will be up near the league lead in a given year), but both have the lion's share of their benefit by orchestrating their teams and directly making life easier for their teammates.
Curry is a different animal. He has about half as many assists but with similar or more turnovers, showing that while he's a good ball-handler and a solid passer, he is nowhere near the floor general that the other two were. However, we all know that's not what makes Curry special. In fact, let's go ahead and flash back to the graphic I posted last week (courtesy of @JasonRubin91):
What that chart shows is that there is (almost always) an inverse relationship between scoring volume and scoring efficiency. And this makes sense because to score at a really high volume a player has to take a lot of shots, and at high volumes all of those shots can't be open spot-ups. No, at those higher volumes, a player has to be taking difficult shots off the dribble, often in high stress situations. So for Curry to have a true shooting percentage up near 70 percent (!!!!!), while averaging almost 45 points per 100 possessions. As that chart shows, there just isn't a historic precedent to compare this to. Pick your favorite scoring season from Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, whoever, no one in the last 30 years has scored the way Curry is this season.
But the big question is always about how a player's contributions impact his team. Paul and Nash dominated the point guard position by directly putting their teammates in position to score easily. Can Curry's ridiculous scoring efficiency have the same impact?
No, it doesn't. Curry's scoring, alone, would not necessarily have the impact on a team that an all-history floor general would.
However, Curry's impact is not only limited to his scoring. Because Curry isn't just scoring efficiently, he's shooting from DEEP. He's making a ridiculous seven 3-pointers per 100 possessions, which is insane, but if you watch him play he's taking a good chunk of those threes from WAY behind the line. He's routinely making 28 to 30-foot shots and not even hitting the rim. So while a normal defense might extend out to the 3-point line, opposing defenses have to extend out another 10-feet or so to guard Curry. Plus, teams like to double-team dominant scorers, and when teams trap or double Curry that means they have two defenders, one of whom is often a big man, at least 30 feet away from the rim.
THAT is where Curry makes up the floor general gap with the other two legends, with his incredible spacing. The Curry/Draymond Green pick-and-roll outside of the 3-point line is essentially an automatic 4-on-3 fast break that the Warriors are able to get out of the half-court set. The ability to get almost-fast-break efficiency out of a half-court set, due to the gravity that Curry exerts on opposing defenses, is what makes Curry's impact truly special. How special?
Well, let's look at the plus/minus stats: using the same plus/minus based regression technique that I mentioned last week, Paul's 2009 season was 2.6 standard deviations above the mean in RAPM, while Nash's 2007 was plus-2.7. Paul and Nash were the two most impactful point guards on record from 1998 – 2012. But Curry?
As of this weekend, using a similar method, Curry is currently 4.4 standard deviations beyond the mean in the ESPN RPM stat. Full disclosure (nerd alert): RPM isn't exactly the same thing as RAPM. Both are plus/minus-based regression stats, but while RAPM has absolutely nothing to do with the box scores, RPM DOES use the box scores to focus the stat. I have to disclose that because it's likely that Curry's ridiculous box scores are improving his RPM numbers.
But that said, let me put Curry's 4.4 standard deviations into perspective. It flat out blows away the best that we saw from Paul and Nash. In fact, from 1998 through 2012, a 15-year stretch that included the peak seasons of several all-time players like Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki, there were exactly four seasons when a player was more than four standard deviations beyond the mean in RAPM: LeBron had two, Shaq had one and Garnett had one. And that's it.
So, through the first quarter of the season, Curry is in the midst of one of the best seasons in NBA history. His box score stats are off the charts, but more importantly, he's impacting games in a way that only the shortest list of the greatest players in history have ever done. Now, it's still early. Curry could slow down, start remembering that he is, in fact, human. But right now, we're witnessing something special. And I just wanted to make sure that we're all paying attention.
Around the NBA
Beal's stress reaction:Bradley Beal has been diagnosed with "the beginnings of a stress reaction in his lower right fibula" and will miss at least two weeks before being re-evaluated. Beal has a history of stress-related injuries in the same part of his right leg, which makes it more likely that this could be a situation that lasts beyond the two-week window.
Irving on the brink:Kyrie Irving is back practicing with the Cavaliers, and he is reportedly targeting a Dec. 20 return date. This is quicker than I expected, so if he's fully healthy then whoever drafted him could be on the verge of seeing a return on their investments.
Jefferson soon to begin serving suspension:Al Jefferson was suspended for five games last week for violating the NBA drug policy, but Jefferson was already out with a calf injury. Thus, he is not allowed to start his suspension until he is healthy enough to play. Jefferson returned to practice in a limited capacity on Monday, but there is no word as to when he'll be deemed healthy enough to start that suspension.
Rondo's suspension:Rajon Rondo was suspended for Tuesday's game because of a slur that he directed at a referee during an argument, but he could return as early as Friday against the Timberwolves.
Noel's eye:Nerlens Noel suffered a corneal abrasion on Sunday night, sat out Monday's game and has no timetable for a return. In his absence, Jerami Grant and Richaun Holmes are the most likely beneficiaries for playing time.
Mudiay's ankle:Emmanuel Mudiay injured his ankle this weekend, the same ankle that he has had issues with in the past. He has been out since Friday and replaced by veteran Jameer Nelson at the point.
Twitter forward of the week: This week's forward comes from @DFSChallenge. He set up a DFS challenge between about 20 of the DFS writers and prognosticators on the internet. His tweet dealt with the results of last week's challenge, and as you can see, the results were near and dear to my heart:
.@draftcheat wins week 3 of the @DFSChallenge w/ an impressive 366. Beating out @ProfessorDrz & @RG_Notorious#DFSpic.twitter.com/aW21CBMvvb
— DFS Crossover (@DFSChallenge) December 10, 2015Got the drank in me going back-to-back: Back-to-backs 12/15– 12/22
TW: Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves
WT: Hornets, Thunder
TF: Raptors
FS: Bulls, Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Knicks
SS: None
SM: Hawks, Nets, Timberwolves, Magic, Suns, Trail Blazers, Kings
MT: None
New Additions:
Kent Bazemore (58 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues): Bazemore began the season as the starting wing in Atlanta, but while he was hurt, Thabo Sefolosha returned and took the starting gig. Bazemore has played really well off the bench, and the Hawks have lost a couple of games in a row, so they have decided to move Bazemore back into the starting unit. He was already playing well off the bench, averaging 12.2 points, 4.2 boards, 2.1 assists, 1.5 treys and 1.5 steals in 27 minutes per game over the last week.
Matt Barnes (30 percent): The Grizzlies have changed their starting lineup for at least the short-term, going to a small-ball look with Barnes replacing Zach Randolph. Barnes is productive as a role player/ 3-point shooter even when he comes off the bench, but as a starter in the last two games he has picked it up, averaging 16.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.5 treys, 2.0 steals and 1.0 block per game.
O.J. Mayo (29 percent): Mayo has been starting at point guard in an injury-decimated Bucks backcourt, and he has been playing well. Besides the distinction of being the starting point guard on the squad that finally took down the Warriors this season, he is averaging 10.4 points, 3.2 boards, 3.1 assists, 1.4 treys and 1.4 steals per game, stats that are likely to be consistent as long as he's starting.
Jameer Nelson (14 percent): With Emmanuel Mudiay out with a right ankle injury, Nelson has moved into the Nuggets' starting lineup. Nelson responded in a huge way in his first start Sunday, scoring 20 points with seven assists, six boards, four treys and two steals. He was quieter in his second start Monday, finishing with 10 points, seven assists and five boards. Either way, these are roto-worthy numbers that Nelson should be able to maintain while Mudiay is out.
Gary Neal (seven percent): With Bradley Beal out for at least the next two weeks, and likely longer, the floor is open for either Garrett Temple or Neal. Temple hasn't done much in his first two starts (5.5 points, 2.5 assists per game), which has left room for the streaky Neal to post at least one good game with a 24-point, three-treys performance against the Grizzlies. Neal has more upside and a defined fantasy-friendly skill set, which makes him the better pickup among the two replacement Wizards.
