This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Although Sunday offers a short four-game slate, it makes for some interesting DFS decisions. There are a lot of bad defenses in play and it should make for a high-scoring DFS slate. Three of the four games have large spreads, and there could be some lopsided wins. That means predicting results can be as important as anything to get a full allotment of minutes from your fantasy players. The only spread likely within six points is the SAC-POR matchup, so stack as many players in that game as possible with two bad defenses in play.
GUARD
C.J. McCollum, POR at SAC ($32) - There are not a whole lot of weapons on this Portland team with the injury to Damian Lillard, but McCollum is definitely the go-to guy now. Since Lillard's injury, McCollum has played the point more and has seen an uptick in his usage rate. While this price matches his production, it doesn't account for his fantastic matchup. He faces a Kings team that ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to guards over its last 10 games. Considering how often McCollum will handle the ball, he could have one of his best games of the season in what should be an extremely high-scoring matchup.
Jameer Nelson, DEN at OKC ($16) - Nelson has been filling in as the starting point guard in the absence of Emmanuel Mudiay and performing well. Over his last nine games, he has not scored less than 16 fantasy points, which matches his value at his $16 price. When your floor matches your price on Yahoo, that's a fantastic value pick. What's even better is that he is averaging about 27 fantasy points a game over his last seven. If you need more incentive, he has a good matchup, as the Thunder rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
FORWARD
Serge Ibaka, OKC vs. DEN ($29) - This play worked out great the last time Ibaka faced Denver. The logic was that Denver is an undersized team prone to blocks. In that game, Ibaka tallied 18 points, seven rebounds, four assists and five blocks. Let's go back to the well and use him again. The same rules apply, as he should be in line for a ton of blocks and a ton of rebounds against a weak offense. The production hasn't been great from Ibaka lately, but that isn't a worry in a matchup like this. If he can match what he did last time, he'd be the steal of the day at power forward.
Jeff Green, MEM vs. LAL ($17) - Green is an incredibly inconsistent player, but he has some tempting upside. In his last game, he scored 47 fantasy points and gave owners three-times value on Yahoo. That's the type of number that can win some big cash. Green faces the worst defense in the NBA, which also ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to forwards over its last 10 games. He has also averaged 25 fantasy points a game over his last seven games, so his recent form makes him intriguing as well.
FORWARD TO AVOID:
Kristaps Porzingis, NYK ay BOS ($36) - Porzingis is a great player and has many good years ahead of him, but I don't like him Sunday. This price is so inflated because of his absurd start, and it doesn't account for his recent struggles. Porzingis had a great game in his most recent outing, but prior to that, he averaged less than 22 fantasy points a game over his previous seven games. That's a terrible number for a $36 player and it makes him hard to trust. What's even worse is that he faces one of the best defenses in the NBA in the Boston Celtics. This may be a case of him hitting a rookie wall and while his upside is great, Porzingis simply costs too much for his expected return.
CENTER
Mason Plumlee, POR at SAC ($21) - Plumlee has been underrated all season and is a good value day after day. He's averaging about 25 fantasy points a game this season, which is value in itself. What's even better is that he has surpassed 25 fantasy points in four of his last six games, including a 34-point and 40-point fantasy outings. What has made him better recently is the aforementioned injury to Damian Lillard, as that has raised his minutes and usage rate lately. The icing on the cake is the matchup, as the Kings are one of the 10-worst defenses against centers this season.
CENTER TO AVOID:
Jared Sullinger, BOS vs. NYK ($24) - Sullinger is the third most-expensive center Sunday. He's simply too inconsistent to rely on, and this Boston team is difficult to trust for fantasy purposes. The Celtics have a multitude of frontcourt players and you never know which one will play well from night to night. Sullinger has scored 14 or fewer fantasy points in two of his last five games, which will kill your team This is the type of day to pay up for players like DeMarcus Cousins or Marc Gasol or use a Mason Plumlee, who is cheaper than Sullinger and much more reliable.
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