This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Salaries are slowly normalizing now that we're a week into the season, but there are still plenty of discounts. This is especially true for players producing far beyond their historical bests like Tim Frazier and Steven Adams, who are flourishing in their new roles, while their salaries race upwards to keep up.
When in doubt, look for opportunity. Players have great games and terrible games, and with so little data available this early in the season, it is not always clear what production levels are normal. But players can only accrue fantasy points when they are on the floor, so fill your roster with players who seem to have large, steady workloads.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC at LAC ($55): This is the first actual test for Westbrook, who has beaten up three of last season's worst fantasy defenses. You can only play the games that are scheduled, and all three teams look to have improved over the offseason, but none are considered threats to make the playoffs. If Westbrook throws up a dud Wednesday, then the headline Thursday is "Westbrook can't hang with the big boys without Kevin Durant." That being said, let's not forget: Westbrook was one assist on opening night away from starting the season with three triple-doubles in a row. This dude is a monster.
J.J. Barea, DAL at UTA ($12): Has there ever been a more exciting time to be J.J. Barea? Looking at his career stats, the answer has to be "no." He has never averaged more than 25 minutes per game during a season, and he's getting 33 per game this time around. He is putting up 16.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 31 fantasy points per game, which is staggering production for this meager salary. His per-minute numbers are in line with what he has done throughout his career, so it does not look like this is simply a hot streak.
Other suggestions: Tim Frazier, NOP at MEM ($21); Allen Crabbe, POR at PHO ($12); James Ennis, MEM vs. NOP ($11)
Guard to Avoid
Chris Paul, LAC vs. OKC ($47): Paul is going against Westbrook, who is an excellent defender, and his backcourt partner Victor Oladipo is a very good one. By far, the Thunder boast the toughest defensive backcourt Paul has faced this season. Meanwhile, Paul is overpriced – for $47, we need at least 50 fantasy points, maybe 55. In Paul's two good games, he has averaged 25.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 44 fantasy points per outing. That's not far off from what Paul has shown in recent seasons (it's fewer assists, but more points). There isn't a lot of room for growth, and due to the quality of the opposing defense, there are plenty of ways this could go poorly. Paul is not a terrible option, there are several better ways to spend $47.
FORWARDS
Anthony Davis, NOP at MEM ($53): Davis gets to face off against JaMychal Green, the Grizzlies' worst starter when they are all healthy. But this is more than just a beatable opponent, as Davis has started the season on an absolute tear, averaging 35 points, 15 rebounds, two steals, two blocks and 67 fantasy points per game.
Harrison Barnes, DAL at UTA ($21): This is one of those cases of a salary not yet adjusting to a player's new role. Barnes averaged 31 minutes per game as a supplementary player for the Warriors last season, but he is playing37 minutes per game this year and is the Mavericks' second-leading scorer. He is attempting 16 shots per game, up from 10 last season, which has helped him average 28.6 fantasy points per game, a hefty return for this price.
Other suggestions: T.J. Warren, PHO vs. POR ($17); Trevor Booker, BKN vs. DET ($14)
Forward to Avoid
Taj Gibson, CHI at BOS ($18): Looking through the list of available options, Gibson jumps out as a player worth considering, as he is averaging 27.9 fantasy points per game on only an $18 dollar salary. It even fits a seemingly logical thought pattern: with Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol gone from the Bulls, Gibson is doing better because he's stepped into a bigger role. A closer look, however, reveals several concerns. First, Gibson is actually averaging fewer minutes per game than he did during the last three seasons. Second, Gibson's early production far exceeds what he has shown earlier in his career. In similar minutes, he has never averaged more than 13.0 points or 6.9 rebounds per game, and he is currently averaging 14.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per outing. He has never shot better than 53 percent from the field, and he is currently shooting 64 percent. This all looks like a hot streak, and Gibson is due to return to his well-established norms soon.
CENTERS
Andre Drummond, DET at BKN ($36): The Nets play fast, rebound rarely and are bad at defense. Where do I sign up? Drummond is the league's leading rebounder, and he'll match up against Brook Lopez, who has long been criticized for his weakness in rebounding. Drummond is averaging 16.0 points, 16.3 rebounds and 40.3 fantasy points per game this season.
Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. DAL ($25): Gobert is averaging 31.1 fantasy points per game, which is a solid return on a $25 investment. What makes him even more appealing is that his category-by-category stats appear completely reproducible. He is averaging 11.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.7 blocks and 2.7 turnovers per game, and he is easily capable of meeting or exceeding those levels, especially against the Mavericks. Through their first three games, the Mavericks have been one of the worst defenses and worst rebounding teams in the league.
Other suggestions: DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. OKC ($33); Steven Adams, OKC at LAC ($19); Clint Capela, HOU at NYK ($13)
Center to Avoid
Andrew Bogut, DAL at UTA ($15): Bogut's price is slightly elevated from his opening night $13, and his past two games have been unusually productive, averaging 27 minutes and 13 rebounds per outing. That's roughly one rebound every two minutes. However, for the last few seasons, Bogut has averaged closer to one rebound every three minutes. Both of those two games were against the Rockets' underwhelming frontcourt. Facing the much more intimidating Jazz, I expect Bogut's streak to end.
