This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Wednesday boasts a big slate of 10 games, which means that scores needed to win are likely to be on the higher side. The Grizzlies-Raptors game features two of the slower paced teams in the league, which might contribute to a low-scoring affair.
Stay alert to who is starting, as several roles may not be clear until late afternoon. The most notable example is in Memphis, where Mike Conley's back injury leaves a big hole – and big minutes – at point guard.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at OKC ($26): I don't love analysis that focuses on when a player is "hot," but Beal's current temperature is too high to ignore. He has scored at least 45 fantasy points in four of his last five, and very little of that production has come from the more variable categories of steals, blocks and turnovers, as he scored at least 25 points in each of those four. Even in his one mediocre game during this stretch, he still managed to break even for this salary. Beal plays heavy minutes, averaging 34.3 per game, and he has played at least 38 minutes in each of the last five. The Thunder is below average defensively, and they play at one of the faster paces.
Jose Calderon, LAL at CHI ($10): It has been almost two weeks since Calderon scored fewer than 10 fantasy points – or, probably more importantly, since D'Angelo Russell started dealing with a knee injury. Calderon is starting and averaging 8.0 points, 4.6 assists and 19.1 fantasy points per game through his five appearances in that time. He played only 13 minutes in one game but still managed to earn daily gamers a hefty profit. He received a CD-DNP in Russell's last appearance, so I only recommend him if I know he is starting.
Other suggestions: Courtney Lee, NY at MIN ($10); Nick Young, LAL at CHI ($14)
Guard to Avoid
John Wall, WAS at OKC ($46): Wall has had some strong outings lately, but Russell Westbrook is a scary opponent. Wall has struggled against Westbrook historically, as the two have faced each other nine times and Wall averages nearly three fewer points per game. More startling, Wall shoot only 31.7 percent from the field against Westbrook, which is well below his career 43.0 percent mark. Only once has Wall score more than 20 points against Westbrook, and it came back in January 2012.
FORWARDS
Kristaps Porzingis, NY at MIN ($33): At this price, Porzingis has broken even or better in eight straight games, and he has scored fewer than 27 fantasy points just once this season. That floor is incredibly high, considering his salary. During this eight-game stretch he is averaging 36.8 minutes and 23.4 points per game, while the Timberwolves are in the bottom-third in points per game allowed over the last five.
James Johnson, MIA at DEN ($12): Sometimes I prefer to grab a player who is one bad game removed from a very strong streak. The bad game can scare off other daily gamers, increasing my advantage if the player hits. Before Monday, Johnson had scored at least 12 fantasy points in every game this month, and even Monday he earned a not-totally-terrible-at-this-price 9.1. In his three games before Monday, he averaged 25.4 fantasy points per game, relying on across-the-board production on top of 12.7 points per game. If he struggles again Wednesday, it shouldn't be too damaging. If he returns to his recent pace, then he lands a heavy profit.
Other suggestions: Wilson Chandler, DEN vs. MIA ($23); DeMarre Carroll, TOR vs. MEM ($13)
Forward to Avoid
Andrew Wiggins, MIN vs. NY ($33): There are not many bad options amongst the healthy, high or mid-priced forwards Wednesday. There is, however, one terrible option, and that is Wiggins. Describing Wiggins' recent stretch as a "slump" is somewhat insulting to slumps. Despite playing more than 30 minutes every night, Wiggins has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Excluding Friday's 25-point, 31.0-fantasy-point (still not a profitable performance) showing against the Suns, Wiggins is averaging only 12.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 0.4 steals per game during this period. That is significantly worse than the numbers Johnson was putting up during the three-game stretch I mentioned above, and he costs nearly a third of Wiggins' salary. I can't recommend trusting Wiggins until he puts together at least a few mediocre games.
CENTERS
Hassan Whiteside, MIA at DEN ($43): The Nuggets are kind of funny when it comes to rebounds. They play at a fairly average pace, and they rebound significantly more than half the available boards. Yet, over their last five games, they rank near the top of the league in rebounds allowed. How can this be? The Nuggets miss more shots than anyone else in the league, and all those missed shots are great news for Whiteside, the league leader in rebounds. Whiteside is a low-floor, high-ceiling player, so he comes with considerable risk, but with the big slate of games Wednesday, daily gamers will probably need higher scores to win.
Tarik Black, LAL at CHI ($10): When his price is this low, a player doesn't need a lot of minutes to profit. That's good, because Black rarely plays more than 15 minutes. Despite the low workload, however, Black has scored at least 15 fantasy points in six straight, including at least four points and five rebounds in each game. He has averaged 25.8 minutes over his last two games, but he is valuable even if that workload regresses towards his norm.
Other suggestions: Joel Embiid, PHI vs. SAC ($26); Steven Adams, OKC vs. WAS ($19)
Center to Avoid
Dwight Howard, ATL at PHO ($35): Howard's price is on the high side of acceptable, but the matchup is concerning. He gets most of his fantasy value from rebounds and points scored near the basket, and producing in both areas Wednesday would require him to outplay Tyson Chandler, and at this stage in their careers, that seems somewhat unlikely. Last time the two met, Howard was held to only 10 points and seven rebounds.
