This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Frequently I begin these columns by talking about the best or worst defenses in action, giving you some sense of teams to target or avoid. But before getting into that, I need to provide some context. Over the last 10 games, three defenses have improved significantly compared to the rest of the league. While the season-long numbers show all defenses normally distributed around a curve, the more recent numbers tell a totally different story. The Warriors, Grizzlies and Spurs – the Warriors and Spurs play Wednesday – are at an entirely different level than the rest of the league on a per possession basis. During this span, the gap between the first-place Warriors and fourth-place Cavaliers is the same as the gap between the Cavs and the 14th-place Pistons. When I say, "avoid teams playing the Warriors and Spurs Wednesday" it carries more weight than in the past.
In addition to avoiding the Raptors and Suns (the Warriors' and Spurs' respective opponents), be careful of the Pistons-Bucks matchup, which looks to be the slowest-paced affair of the evening. The Spurs are so much better than the Suns, who rank amongst the worst defenses, that it may be a good night for Spurs reserves. The Nuggets, Blazers, Magic and Timberwolves are the other bad defenses worth targeting.
GUARDS
Derrick Rose, NY at ATL ($21): Rose as scored at least 19 points and at least 30 fantasy points in every game since returning from his recent back injury. He had started getting hot before the injury, reaching those same targets in five of seven. The Hawks are a better than average opponent, and the price is an absolute steal in light of his recent performances.
Ty Lawson, SAC at POR ($10): No, this article wasn't written in 2011. Yes, I'm recommending Rose and Lawson on Dec. 28, 2016. Darren Collison is playing poorly enough that the term "slump" feels inappropriate. Lawson has played at least 20 minutes in eight straight games and has scored over 23 fantasy points six times in that span. Finally, the Blazers' defense, never strong in the first place, has fallen apart lately, allowing the third-most points, points per possession and three-point field goal percentage over the last 10 games.
Other suggestions: Evan Fournier, ORL vs. CHA ($24); Jamal Crawford, LAC at NO ($11)
Guard to Avoid
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at DET ($51): Antetokounmpo, already high priced, has seen his salary jump in the past few games, and Wednesday's matchup should be the slowest pace on the slate. Antetokounmpo is a fantasy beast, and his floor is better than the best night of most players' entire career – it's been three weeks since he scored fewer than 45 fantasy points. But between his price and the matchup, he is unlikely to provide much profit. If you want to use him, it should be a deliberate strategy decision – something along the lines of "I really love these low-priced guys to go off, and I just want a stud who will pull his own weight and not lose this for me." Otherwise, look for upside elsewhere.
FORWARDS
Andrew Wiggins, MIN at DEN ($31): Wiggins' price is on the high side, but not unreasonably so. On the other hand, he has one of the most favorable matchups. Most of the elite forwards are either overpriced (Anthony Davis), in bad matchups (Jabari Parker) or in matchups so favorable that I fear they will play fewer minutes (LaMarcus Aldridge). With the Timberwolves against the Nuggets, however, the struggling T-Wolves are incentivized to give Wiggins all the minutes he can handle against a bad opponent. Nuggets opponents have the best field-goal percentage in the league, which is great news for Wiggins, who attempts 17.7 shots per game.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN at CHI ($10): Hollis-Jefferson has profited at this price in all but one appearance over the past month and a half. Often the profits are mild, achieving fantasy points totals in the mid-teens, but sometimes they rise to lineup-carrying status when he reaches totals in the 20s or higher. Hollis-Jefferson has scored double-digits with at least 22 fantasy points in three of his last four, and has averaged 4.8 rebounds per game in that stretch.
Other suggestions: Danilo Gallinari, DEN vs. MIN ($24); Gorgui Dieng, MIN at DEN ($21)
Forward to Avoid
Jimmy Butler, CHA vs BKN ($44): In addition to the players mentioned above, Wednesday does not look promising for Butler. The Bulls are a relatively good team, and the Nets are terrible, so there is always the fear that Butler loses minutes due to a blowout. Even if that doesn't happen, Butler's recent performances have been too poor to warrant investment, as he hasn't reached 40 fantasy points in his past seven games, and he needs to hit roughly 50 to earn a profit.
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at NO ($29): Jordan's bad nights basically break even at this salary, and so the question with Jordan is more "how much will he profit?" He had only one game with fewer than 29 fantasy points in the last month, and in that game he reached 24.0. Until his salary adjusts upwards, I'm using Jordan almost every time he plays, especially against a favorable opponent like the Pelicans.
Lucas Nogueira, TOR at GS ($10): Nogueira's strong play has become more consistent, to the point where coach Dwane Casey has talked about – and briefly attempted – using Nogueira at power forward. Any extra minutes are helpful. His length and athleticism could help him earn extra time against the Warriors and their fast, spaced offense. He has at least five rebounds and one block in nine straight games, and has totaled at least 19 fantasy points in his last three.
Other suggestions: Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at DEN ($43); Bismack Biyombo, ORL vs. CHA ($15)
Center to Avoid
Andre Drummond, DET vs MIL ($33): Part of this is the slow-paced matchup, which I've already described. But more worrisome is his recent scoring slump, as Drummond averaged only 10.9 points per game over his last eight, down from 15.0 before that stretch. That decrease is seriously harming his fantasy value, as he has exceeded 36 fantasy points only twice in that period – a mark he hit almost half the time before.
