This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets: Motivation tends to be the most important aspect when trying to determine defense and this is a Cavaliers team that will surely be motivated here. In their most recent game, they allowed a free-falling Chicago Bulls squad to drop 106 points in an embarrassing loss. That means Cleveland will come into this game angry and it wouldn't be surprising to see them end this game in the third quarter. Not only is Brooklyn playing the second half of a back-to-back set, they come into this game losing nine of their last 10 games. This rotation is a mess too, as they have no player averaging 30 minutes a game, but nine players averaging at least 20 minutes.
Offense to Use:
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers: Miami is one of the most beat up teams in the NBA, but that gives me reasons to like them for DFS. With Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow both sidelined, minutes and usage need to be taken by someone and the Heat have filled that hole with a shorter rotation. That has made cheap players extremely valuable and they should be able to thrive in a matchup like this. Not only do the Lakers rank 29th in defensive efficiency, they are allowing teams to drop nearly 110 points a game in the Staples Center. While the Heat have had a weak offense all year, they have some great value plays that should be able to produce some monster numbers in such a good matchup.
Teams on Back-to-Back Set:
First Game: Celtics, Knicks and Timberwolves
Second Game: Lakers, Nets and Rockets
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
Goran Dragic, MIA at LAL ($7,400): Dragic has been in and out of the lineup all season, but he's one of the best point guards in the league when he plays. The lefty point guard played one terrible game while injured last week, but has been a monster aside from that. In fact, he is averaging 23 points, 3.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists in a 17-game stretch. It's his usage that's made him so dominant, as he leads the team in minutes, with so many players nursing injuries in the training room. This matchup is spectacular too, with the Lakers ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed to point guards, 29th in defensive efficiency and fifth in pace.
T.J. McConnell, PHI at BOS ($5,500): This is one of those plays that is dependent on an injury, but if Sergio Rodriguez misses this game, McConnell is a must use. McConnell is the backup point guard for Philly and he takes on a huge role when asked to start. In fact, McConnell is averaging 11.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.0 steals in his last two games as the starting point guard. What's most encouraging is the fact he plays almost all the minutes and runs the offense, as he's averaging 36 minutes per game in that stretch too. Boston has been regressing on defense lately as well, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to point guards across its last 10 games. If Rodriguez does end up playing, let's pivot to Raymond Felton ($4,500), who is playing some huge minutes in the absence of Chris Paul.
Darren Collison, SAC at LAC ($4,500): The struggle has been real for Collison this season, but his price and recent form are starting to make him an attractive DFS target. Not only does he have 79 fantasy points across his last three games, he's playing nearly 34 minutes a game in that span too. That's what's most promising, as he should easily produce value at this sort of price with so many minutes under his belt. This matchup isn't as tough as it appears either, as Collison will likely dodge the defensive stud that is Chris Paul. In fact, the Clippers rank bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to point guards since Paul went down.
Julius Randle, LAL vs. MIA ($7,200): Randle has established himself as one of the focal points of this offense, as he's become one of the best point-forwards in the NBA. While his price is starting to get to a point that I don't like, Randle's playing too well to avoid right now. Over his last eight games, Randle is averaging 17.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks. That is incredible production and it's evident the Lakers are comfortable running their offense through the big man. This matchup is spectacular too, as the Heat have very little in terms of frontcourt depth.
Jae Crowder, BOS vs. PHI ($5,200): Crowder hasn't shown the ability to go off this season but has been as reliable as any small forward on this slate. In fact, he has at least 23 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games, which is a floor of nearly 5X value. That alone makes him a great cash play, but the fact that he faces the Sixers makes him even more enticing, as Philadelphia currently allows the sixth most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Aaron Gordon, ORL vs. HOU ($4,900): Gordon is in the best stretch of his season right now and his current price isn't indicative of his sparkling form. Over his last five games, Gordon is averaging 16.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game, which comes to an average of 30 fantasy points per contest. That's incredible value below $5,000 and it only gets better considering the matchup. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the NBA, and are one of the fastest-paced teams too. That pace and defense should only make a player like Gordon more valuable, as he thrives off of his athleticism and transition baskets.
Al Horford, BOS vs. PHI ($6,900): Horford continues to be undervalued on DraftKings, as he's a far better player than his $6,900 price indicates. What makes him so valuable is his ability to stuff the stat sheet, as he is averaging 16.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.7 blocks across his last 17 games. That's well over 30 fantasy points per game and that only further questions this cheap price. If that's not incentive enough, his matchup should be -- Boston faces a Philadelphia team that allows the third most fantasy points to centers this season.
Joakim Noah, NYK at MIL ($5,500): Noah is coming off a 16-rebound game against the Bucks in his most recent outing, which continues a fantastic rebounding stretch for the former all-star. Over his last seven games, Noah is averaging 8.9 points and 11.1 rebounds, while adding a pair of assists, and at least one block and steal per game. That's over 27 fantasy points per game, which is fantastic value for someone at just $5,500, especially considering his upside.
Willie Reed, MIA at LAL ($4,200): Reed looks to be in line to start for Hassan Whiteside, and that alone makes him a huge value at just $4,200. While he's been inconsistent filling in for Whiteside, he's also shown the ability to go off. On Tuesday, Reed recorded a 22-point, 18-rebound line against the Suns and that sort of upside is hard to pass up at this price. That sort of upside only increases with this matchup, as the Lakers are one of the worst defenses in the NBA. While Reed is risky, he's one of few players who has 10X potential and that's the key to winning a big tournament.
