This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Wednesday's 12-game slate is one of the busiest days of the season. With so many teams in action, fantasy scores needed to win will probably be very high. Six teams are on second nights of a back-to-backs. Among the six, the Nuggets travel the farthest, going from Los Angeles on Tuesday to Denver on Wednesday. The other five are the Hornets, Knicks, Pelicans, Raptors and Thunder.
The Warriors defense, always a good defense, has moved toward incredible over the last 10 games. The difference between them and the second-place Jazz is the same as the gap between the Jazz and the 11th place Timberwolves. The Warriors and Jazz host the Hornets and Bucks, respectively, and both of those offenses have struggled recently. Avoid both the Hornets and Bucks where possible. On the other side, the Nets and Suns have returned to their familiar ranks among the worst defenses in the league, and they host the Knicks and Clippers, respectively; both teams should be targeted.
Given the busy slate, it could be more important than usual to incorporate Vegas' over-under lines. There is no line yet for the Raptors-Celtics or Grizzlies-Nuggets games. Amongst the rest, the Hornets-Warriors, Knicks-Nets, and Clippers-Suns games are expected to be the highest scoring. The Bucks-Jazz, 76ers-Mavericks and Hawks-Heat games are projected to have the lowest total scores.
GUARDS
Jeff Teague, IND at ORL ($34): Teague looks good, the Magic look bad and the price looks cheap. Teague is averaging 44.9 fantasy points, 18.0 points, 12.0 assists and 6.3 rebounds in 38.0 minutes per game over the last three. All three of those opponents play slower than the Magic, and two of the three feature worse defenses. The price is fair for Teague's season average numbers, and great compared to his recent streak.
Jameer Nelson, DEN vs. MEM ($13): First the bad: (deep inhale) Nelson is 34 years old on the second night of a back-to-back that requires a nearly three-hour flight and he's played more minutes over a four-game stretch than at any point this season (deep breath). But with Emmanuel Mudiay (back) out, Nelson has taken over the primary playmaking duties, and he's on a fantasy roll, averaging 14.0 points and 7.8 assists per game over his last four, leading him to four straight games with more than 28 fantasy points. Even if he's slowed by travel and fatigue, he still provides a profit with half that production.
Other suggestions: Austin Rivers, LAC at PHO ($19); Norman Powell, TOR at BOS ($13) Iman Shumpert, CLE vs. MIN ($10);
Guard to Avoid
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at UTA ($53): This is not a night to mess around with high-cost, low-floor players. The winning scores will be too high to spend 25 percent of your salary on one player who almost always gets you 40 fantasy points, but rarely gets more than 60 (which he has hit just four times this season). On top of that, this is a terrible matchup. This game has the lowest over-under of the night, the Jazz are the second-most efficient per-possession defense and both teams' paces rank amongst the slowest eight in the league.
FORWARDS
Paul George, IND at ORL ($39): Teague and George have near-identical justifications for their recommendations, with the primary exception being that George's streak of scoring at least 42 fantasy points is one game longer. George has at least 31 points and 42 fantasy points in four straight. The Magic are porous against forwards, especially those who can score and rebound.
Andre Iguodala, GS vs. CHA ($10): The Hornets-Warriors game looks to be a high-scoring affair, and the Warriors are expected to do most of the scoring. As a bench player who plays a big role in the rotation, Iguodala is exactly the type of player who benefits from a high-scoring game when his team is favored to win comfortably. Iguodala has at least 21 fantasy points in seven straight, and he's played at least 24 minutes in each of those. Even when he isn't scoring, he finds ways to contribute with rebounds, assists and steals.
Other suggestions: Caris LeVert, BKN vs. NY ($10); Kenneth Faried*, DEN vs. MEM ($17); James Johnson, MIA vs. ATL ($22)
* Assuming Nikola Jokic (hip) is out
Forward to Avoid
Ersan Ilyasova, PHI at DAL ($24): Ilysasova has been a regular source of value this season, but Wednesday does not look promising, as the Mavericks allow the fourth-fewest points per possession over the past 10 games. Mavericks opponents used to have the best three-point percentage in the league, but that has fallen to 16th over the past 10 games. Those are bad omens for Ilyasova, who gets most of his value from his scoring, and specifically his three-point scoring.
CENTERS
Marc Gasol, MEM at DEN ($34): Gasol is a good play no matter what, but he is an even better option if Nikola Jokic (hip) is able to play Wednesday. Jokic's rise earlier this season corresponded with the fall of the Nuggets' defensive rating, though they remain a bad defense without him. The Nuggets play fast, and allow opponents the fifth-highest field-goal percentage over the past 10 games. Though Gasol has "only" scored 32.3 and 32.7 fantasy points in his last two games, respectively, they follow a six-game streak of scoring at least 40.
Nerlens Noel, PHI at DAL ($19): It's disappointing that Noel's price rose so fast over the past week – last Wednesday he cost only $10 – but it is also completely fair. In the last four games without Joel Embiid (knee), Noel is averaging 14.8 points in 26.8 minutes per outing, scoring between 24.6 and 45.1 fantasy points in each. Dirk Nowitzki, who is now the Mavericks starting center, is neither quick enough nor talented enough to defend Noel.
Other suggestions: Willy Hernangomez*, NY at BKN ($10); Brook Lopez, BKN vs. NY ($25)
* Assuming Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is out
Center to Avoid
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at PHO ($31): This will be a telling game for Jordan, and for understanding his value going forward. He was good with Blake Griffin at the beginning of the season, but he was great for 18 games without Griffin, averaging 2.1 extra points and 2.2 extra rebounds per game while increasing his field-goal percentage to 73 percent. In Griffin's first two games back, Jordan had a 20-rebound, zero-block game against the Embiid-less 76ers, and then flopped against the Warriors. The Suns are a bad defense, and this should be a high-scoring game, but Tyson Chandler can challenge Jordan – even if, at this point in their careers, Jordan is clearly the better player. The positional matchup could be a challenge, and Jordan has yet to put together a great all-around fantasy performance since Griffin's return.
