This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
For the second Wednesday in a row, there is a massive 12-game slate. The scores are likely to be higher, and picking players from higher scoring games is therefore more important. According the Las Vegas, the Wizards-Nets and Nuggets-Hawks matchups are expected to be the highest scoring, with the Spurs-Sixers and Clippers-Knicks not far behind. The Jazz-Pelicans game is expected to have the lowest score, and by a considerable margin.
The Spurs have reclaimed the top defense in the league, holding a giant lead over the second-place Pacers over the past two games. Both teams should be avoided, and they face the 76ers and the Cavaliers, respectively. On the flip side, the Clippers and the Suns defenses are terrible – both trail the 28th-ranked 76ers by more than the Pacers trail the Spurs. The Clippers visit the Knicks, and the Suns visit the Grizzlies.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at BKN ($30): While the Nets' defense has actually improved compared to its early season performance, they remain one of the worst defenses in the league. They allow the seventh-best field-goal percentage and three-point percentage, and even during their "improved" run, they still rank among most worst third in points per possession allowed. Additionally, this is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. Finally, Beal's price is on the low side, and he has exceeded 35 fantasy points in four of his last five.
Darren Collison, SAC vs. BOS ($14):DeMarcus Cousins is suspended Wednesday, and he is the central figure of the Kings' offense. Other players will see more of an increase in minutes (more on that below), but Collison may be the biggest winner in the box score. Cousins' absence, combined with Rudy Gay's season-ending Achilles injury last month, means that the entire offense has to run through Collison.
Other suggestions: Tim Hardaway Jr, ATL vs DEN ($14); Michael Carter-Williams*, CHI at GS ($10); Dwayne Wade*, CHI at GS ($29); Kris Dunn, MIN vs. TOR ($10); Tyus Jones**, MIN vs. TOR ($10)
* If Jimmy Butler (heel) is out
** If Kris Dunn (hand) is out
Guard to Avoid
Eric Bledsoe, PHO at MEM ($41): Bledsoe scored 14 points and committed six turnovers on his way to 26.5 fantasy points against the Grizzlies last week. It was his worst fantasy performance in more than two weeks. That's what this defense did to him when he was playing well. Now, he has back-to-back games of more than four turnovers and fewer than 15 points and 28 fantasy points. The Grizzlies are one of the best defenses in the league, they smothered Bledsoe in their most recent matchup, and Bledsoe has gone cold, which is not an enticing combination.
FORWARDS
Blake Griffin, LAC at NY ($41): It took Griffin only two games to find his stride after returning from a knee injury that cost him 18 games. He is averaging 27.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists in 34.5 minutes over his last four, including at least 48 fantasy points in each of his last three. The Knicks are one of the most favorable opponents in the league, and this matchup of two bad defenses should lend itself to a shootout.
Dario Saric, PHI vs. SA ($11): Saric is a rookie on a team with no honest playoff aspirations playing against a difficult opponent. Yet, Saric shined against the Spurs last week, when he scored 14 points and grabbed nine rebounds in 36 minutes. Vegas projects this game to be not only high scoring, but – for reasons I don't fully understand – closely contested (the line is Spurs by four). Saric has at least 20 fantasy points in four of his last five, and seven of his last nine. The possibility that Kawhi Leonard (quad) sits only makes Saric more attractive. Note: I recommend both Matt Barnes and Anthony Tolliver above Saric, but I thought three paragraphs on "start this King because Cousins is suspended" would get really repetitive. The paragraphs on Collison, above, and Koufos, below, are plenty.
Other suggestions: Matt Barnes, SAC vs. BOS ($11); Anthony Tolliver, SAC vs. BOS ($10); Marcus Morris, DET vs LAL ($20); Gordon Hayward, UTA at NO
Forward to Avoid
Paul George, IND vs. CLE ($39): This analysis is pretty straightforward: matching up against LeBron James is difficult, and George rarely profits even when he isn't facing James. The Cavaliers allow the ninth-fewest points to forwards, and the eighth-fewest threes. Meanwhile, George has only scored more than 39 fantasy points once in his past four games, and just five times in 17 games since 2017 began.
CENTERS
Marc Gasol, MEM vs. PHO ($34): The Suns' defense allowed the second-most points per game over the last 10 games, and they rebounded only 48.6 percent of available boards over that span. Additionally, Suns opponents rank in the top three for field-goal percentage and three-point percentage. Gasol hasn't been exceptional lately, but he has a very high floor and an exceptional matchup. Only three times in 2017 has he scored fewer than 30 fantasy points, and all of those were still above 25.
Kosta Koufos, SAC vs. BOS ($10):DeMarcus Cousins averages 34.6 minutes per game this season, and he is suspended Wednesday. That opens up a ton of opportunity throughout the roster. Anthony Tolliver (listed above) is the more exciting frontcourt option, but he is already averaging 30.7 minutes per game over the past three, so there is a limit to how much he can benefit from Cousins' absence. Despite starting at center, Koufos has only played at least 20 minutes twice in the past nine games, and he's averaging just 17.1 minutes per game during that stretch. But Koufos can be productive when he finds the floor – the last three times he reached 20 minutes, he scored at least nine points and 18 fantasy points.
Other suggestions: Jahlil Okafor, PHI vs. SA ($12); Marcin Gortat, WAS at BKN ($21)
Center to Avoid
Dwight Howard, ATL vs. DEN ($27): This is not an "avoid outright" but rather a "use caution." The Nikola Jokic-"led" Nuggets defense has been mostly terrible this season, and the Nuggets have spent most of the season as arguably the most favorable fantasy matchup possible. But their defense has improved over the past 10 games, approaching just run-of-the-mill bad level – a marked improvement for them. In addition to their defensive surge, their rebound percentage is the best in the league – as it has been for most of the season. Combined, those factors make the Nuggets a slight minus matchup for a rebound-heavy center like Howard.
