Category Strategy: Week 24

Category Strategy: Week 24

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

Congratulations to everyone reading this article. Whether you're fighting for your championship or just trying to win the NIT (the consolation bracket; also, I stole this joke), I applaud your success and commitment.

The Clippers are the only team with just two games this week. They are joined by the Suns as the only teams with four games through the end of the season. The Spurs, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Thunder, Mavericks, and Timberwolves play four games this week and two more next week, while the Grizzlies, Raptors, and Knicks play four this week but only one after that. Everyone else plays three games three games this week, and two next week. A final scheduling note: the Suns and Hornets are the only teams that do not play on the final day of the season, which is next Wednesday, April 14. Though those teams don't play the most games, fringe players have extra value since they won't be stuck on fantasy benches on that final night.

Points

Ish Smith, Pistons
(Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo – 33%; CBS – 57%)

Even before Reggie Jackson (knee) was sidelined due to injury, Smith had replaced him in the starting lineup. If Jackson returns this week, which is not yet known, it is likely Smith will retain control of the starting job, and the lion's share of the minutes. Without Jackson, Smith is a must ad – he averaged 17.8 points, 5.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.8 threes in 32.3 minutes with Jackson out

Congratulations to everyone reading this article. Whether you're fighting for your championship or just trying to win the NIT (the consolation bracket; also, I stole this joke), I applaud your success and commitment.

The Clippers are the only team with just two games this week. They are joined by the Suns as the only teams with four games through the end of the season. The Spurs, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Thunder, Mavericks, and Timberwolves play four games this week and two more next week, while the Grizzlies, Raptors, and Knicks play four this week but only one after that. Everyone else plays three games three games this week, and two next week. A final scheduling note: the Suns and Hornets are the only teams that do not play on the final day of the season, which is next Wednesday, April 14. Though those teams don't play the most games, fringe players have extra value since they won't be stuck on fantasy benches on that final night.

Points

Ish Smith, Pistons
(Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo – 33%; CBS – 57%)

Even before Reggie Jackson (knee) was sidelined due to injury, Smith had replaced him in the starting lineup. If Jackson returns this week, which is not yet known, it is likely Smith will retain control of the starting job, and the lion's share of the minutes. Without Jackson, Smith is a must ad – he averaged 17.8 points, 5.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.8 threes in 32.3 minutes with Jackson out over the last four. When Jackson returns, Smith becomes less attractive and more of a facilitator, but he remains worth attention in standard or deeper leagues.

One points player to avoid: Rookie Troy Williams may attract some attention after his 21-points, six-threes, 39-minutes performance Sunday, but I'm not buying it. The Rockets were without Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, and James Harden Sunday. The Rockets have too many talented options on the wing when healthy to invest in Williams, who has spent most of the season in the D-League. He may have another game or two that help streamers or daily gamers, but he's probably not a good option for all of the remaining games.

Other suggestions: Frank Kaminsky, Hornets; Terrence Ross, Raptors; Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, 76ers; J.R. Smith, Cavaliers; C.J. Miles, Pacers

Three-Pointers

Terrence Ross, Magic
(Ownership: ESPN – 30%; Yahoo – 52%; CBS – 52%)

Ross is now, as he always has been, an inconsistent player. His last four games consist of nine threes in two outings, sandwiched between appearances with zero threes. As frustrating as the "bread" nights may have been, managers who started him for the whole hoagie were treated to 2.3 threes en route to 15.8 points per game. He has been a fundamental piece of the Magic offense since he joined the team via trade, averaging 11.7 field goal attempts and 5.7 three point attempts per game. Due to his inconsistency, Ross is best when used every night, as opposed to as a streaming option.

J.R. Smith and C.J. Miles fill very similar roles for their respective teams right now, and their stats over the past week are similar. Both are primarily three-point scorers, stretching the floor and opening the lane for their teams' superstar forwards. Both are so effective at this role that they contribute to fantasy teams in points, in addition to threes. Miles has a lower ceiling, but he has been doing this consistently all season, so he is the safer pickup. Smith has a much higher ceiling, both due to his own talent and to the talent around him, but he has been less consistent this season. Smith is averaging 14.7 points and 4.7 threes over his past three games, but he averaged only 5.0 points and 1.4 threes over the five games before that. I rank Smith over Miles, but it's really a tie – the decision should be made according to each individual manager's appetite for risk. Joe Ingles is listed ahead of both because he is a better all-around contributor, though he is worst from behind the arc.

Other suggestions: Ish Smith, Pistons; Frank Kaminsky, Hornets; Terrence Ross, Raptors; Joe Ingles, Jazz; J.R. Smith, Cavaliers; C.J. Miles, Pacers; Denzel Valentine, Bulls

Deep leagues only: Troy Daniels, Grizzlies

Rebounds

Thomas Robinson, Lakers
(Ownership: ESPN – 1%; Yahoo – 2%; CBS – 1%)

Ivica Zubac sprained his ankle after just two minutes Thursday. That opened up a starting spot and the minutes that go with it. Larry Nance has stepped into the starting spot, but Robinson has been the more consistent performer. Robinson has averaged 18.7 minutes in the three games without Zubac (including the game when Zubac was injured early), and he is shooting 54.5 percent from the field. In the two games completely without Zubac, Robinson averaged 9.5 rebounds. Nance is also a good addition, despite the inconsistency, and he provides a more balanced stat profile.

Willy Hernangomez is listed as a keeper option, but it's not clear yet how good of an option he will be. It is possible that the Knicks coming offseason results in Hernangomez positioned for a full-time starting role, in which case he'd make for a solid keeper. However, though he is a good fantasy center, Hernangomez would be one of the worst starters in terms of actually ability. Therefore, if he ends up on another roster – and he's one of few attractive potential trade pieces the Knicks have – he would probably be the backup, and he might end up off the fantasy radar in standard leagues.

Other suggestions: Larry Nance, Lakers; Willy Hernangomez, Knicks; Skal Labissiere, Kings; Noah Vonleh, Trail Blazers; Justin Anderson, 76ers

Keeper suggestions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Pistons; Marquese Chriss, Suns; Willy Hernangomez, Knicks

Deep leagues only: Andre Roberson, Thunder

Assists

Patty Mills, Spurs
(Ownership: ESPN – 13%; Yahoo – 32%; CBS – 33%)

The Spurs have clinched the 2-seed, and have no realistic shot at the 1-seed. That is the perfect recipe for a classic Gregg Popovich Rest-A-Palooza. Last season, after the Spurs clinched the second seed, Tony Parker sat four times and Manu Ginobili sat five (LaMarcus Aldridge sat three; Kawhi Leonard sat five; the Spurs clinched with 11 games remaining). When Parker missed four games in a row in March, Mills averaged 13.5 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.0 threes in 29.3 minutes. Mills' boost from a Ginobili absence is less direct, but Mills' averaged 25.0 minutes over the last two games Ginobili missed and Parker played – up from Mills' 22.1 minutes per game this season. The more Spurs stars rest, the more opportunity Mills will have. Mills averages 5.8 assists per 36 minutes this season.

Matthew Dellavedova is worth using as long as Malcolm Brogdon (back) remains out, but probably not longer. Dellavedova has seen 34.5 minutes per game over the last two, while Brogdon has sat. When Brogdon returns, Dellavedova should be replaced by Brogdon wherever possible.

Other suggestions: Ish Smith, Pistons; Marcus Smart, Celtics; Bucks Starting Point Guard; T.J. McConnell, 76ers; Cory Joseph, Raptors; Jameer Nelson, Nuggets

Keeper suggestions: Marcus Smart, Celtics

Steals

Taurean Prince, Hawks
(Ownership: ESPN – 6%; Yahoo – 13%; CBS – %)

Prince has at least one steal in seven straight games, and he has played at least 35 minutes in four of his past five. Prince was a 2016 lottery pick credited for his defense, his wingspan, and his energy. He's delivering on those fronts – and is likely to generate lots of offseason hype as a fantasy "sleeper" for 2017-18. He's become a key cog in the Hawks rotation.

Speaking of rookies, while Kris Dunn has mostly disappointed so far this season, he is proving adept at defense. Monday broke his 13-game streak of at least one steal, but during the streak he averaged 1.8 per game, despite only playing 20.2 minutes. He's adding very little outside of steals, and is only an option in leagues without games maxes.

Other suggestions: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Nets; Joe Ingles, Jazz; Josh Richardson, Heat; Kris Dunn, Timberwolves

Keeper suggestions: Taurean Prince, Hawks; Josh Richardson, Heat; Tyreke Evans, Kings

Deep leagues only: Former Boston College Eagle Jared Dudley, Suns

Blocks

Alex Len, Suns
(Ownership: ESPN –33%; Yahoo – 46%; CBS – 53%)

As Alan Williams has faded the last few weeks, Len has improved. Williams last played 30 minutes on March 15. Since the following game, Len has played more than Williams. Len is averaging 7.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 24.5 minutes during that span, including two games with four blocks.

Danny Green has been disappointing fantasy owners for years, but he is also one of very few guys capable of averaging a three, a steal, and a block per game. He is almost universally available, and if you have space on your bench, there is a chance he has keeper value come October.

Other suggestions: Marquese Chriss, Suns; JaVale McGee

Keeper suggestions: Marquese Chriss, Suns; Danny Green, Spurs

Deep leagues only: David West, Warriors

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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