This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Wednesday night features eight games, and fantasy scores will probably be lower than most Wednesdays, though they are likely to remain above average.
The Warriors play on the second night of a back-to-back, but they remain a defense to avoid. Over the past 10 games, their lead over the rest of the league in per-possession defense is monumental. They visit a Suns squad that has the worst per-possession offense over the same span. The Spurs and Raptors have also been particularly tough defenses lately. On the flip side, the Lakers and Nuggets defenses have been bad all season, but they have reached terrible depths lately; over the last 10 games, both teams have seen their defensive ratings rise above 118 – on the season, both are at 111.3.
GUARDS
Devin Booker, PHO vs. GS ($30): I know I just said to avoid the Warriors, and I mostly stand by that. But Booker is on one crazy run lately, and his price has not adjusted. Since – not including – his 70-point game last week, Booker is averaging 28.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game. He's scored at least 34.0 fantasy points in six straight, and he's played at least 34 minutes in all but one appearance over the last month, and he still played 30 in that lone exception.
Emmanuel Mudiay, DEN at HOU ($12): Over the last two games, Mudiay is averaging 16.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 30.4 fantasy points. With Jameer Nelson (calf) and Will Barton (foot) out of the lineup, Mudiay is averaging 30.5 minutes per game. Both Nelson and Barton missed Tuesday's game, and if they sit again Wednesday, Mudiay will be in line for another major helping of minutes. If only one returns (of the two, Barton seems closer), Mudiay should still provide a great value, though he is not the same slam-dunk that he is with both out.
Other suggestions: J.R. Smith, CLE at BOS ($10); Ish Smith, DET vs. TOR ($20)
Guard to Avoid
Kyrie Irving, CLE at BOS ($42): Irving has only one game above 47 fantasy points over the past month. That's a pretty low ceiling for a player who takes up a big chunk of budget. He's also scored fewer than 37 in three of his last six, and in five of his last 11, meaning that he's actively damaged lineups about half the time over the last three weeks. The Celtics are humming lately, going 8-2 in their last 10 games while maintaining a defensive efficiency in the top third. They also rank in the top five for opponent field goal percentage and three point percentage.
FORWARDS
Marquese Chriss, PHO vs. GS ($19): I'm not wild about Chriss, but he's the most expensive option worth considering. All of the hesitation comes from facing the Warriors. In addition to boasting the best per-possession defense over the last 10 games, their opponents rank last in field-goal percentage and three-point percentage. Warriors' opponents even rank in the bottom-five in blocks and assists, and in the bottom-10 in rebounds. That's as all-around dominant as a team can get. But most of daily games comes back to price and player, and Chriss is in good shape there, scoring at least 20 points in five of his last eight, including each of the last three.
Matt Barnes, GS at PHO ($10):Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will rest Wednesday, opening up close to 60 minutes in the Warriors' rotation. Barnes figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries, along with David West. The Suns' defense has been bad lately, as their per-possession defense over the past 10 days would rank third-worst on the season.
Other suggestions: David West, GS at PHO ($10); Larry Nance, LAL at SA ($11)
Forwards to Avoid
Kawhi Leonard, SA vs. LAL ($50): This game screams "Popovich is going to rest Kawhi" for the following reasons:
- The Spurs have clinched the 2-seed in the Western conference and have no realistic shot at the 1 seed (the Warriors would need to go 1-3 or 0-4 for it to be mathematically possible).
- The Spurs are playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
- They are playing the Lakers, who want to lose, and are still worse than the Spurs without Leonard.
- Leonard collided with Mike Conley on Tuesday, causing a headache.
The Spurs have no motivation to play Leonard, and have an excuse they can point to for his absence (though they might not care to use it). If he is active, managers should fear that he may sit late in the game due to a blowout – the Lakers have lost five of their last seven games by double-digit margins.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. LAL ($31): See directly above.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN at HOU ($46): Jokic is a good play for teams feeling confident about their bargain options. At this price, Jokic will have difficulty posting a big profit – he has not scored more than 57 fantasy points since the All-Star break. However, Jokic has a great chance to break even, based both on his recent play and his last performance in Houston. Jokic scored 22 points on his way to 46.6 fantasy points when he last faced the Rockets. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in five of his last six, and 12 of his last 16. With several injuries and players resting, a lot of cheap backups are available with limited expensive options to balance a roster. Jokic is a low-risk low-reward option, and one of few viable players to spend money on.
Thomas Robinson, LAL at SA ($10):Ivica Zubac went down with an ankle sprain after just two minutes Thursday, and he is now out for the season. One of the few remaining center options available, Tarik Black (knee), is out Wednesday. Black averaged 24.0 minutes in the first two games of Zubac's absence. Robinson will share the load with Larry Nance, who was playing well during the Lakers' last game, and so he got the bulk of Black's minutes, but Robinson was still able to post 12 points, 10 rebounds and 27.5 fantasy points – his third game of at least 24 fantasy points in his last four.
Other suggestions: Alex Len, PHO vs. GS ($11); Clint Capela, HOU vs. DEN ($17); DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. DAL ($29)
Center to Avoid
Andre Drummond, DET vs. TOR ($30): These aren't the Pistons you're looking for. This is a team in free-fall after a 2-9 stretch that saw them all but eliminated from playoff contention. During that span, Drummond is averaging only 8.6 points per game, down from the 14.9 he was averaging before the collapse. On top of that, the Raptors have been the second-toughest fantasy opponent for centers over the last 10 games.
