This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid: Um … none? Seriously, the playoffs have heated all the way up, and these matchups could all swing any direction. The Cavs/Pacers and Rockets/Thunder games have been shootouts, so definitely none of them. The Bulls' offense couldn't do anything in Game 3, but that seemed like a fluke because Chicago's been fine without Rajon Rondo all season. And the Clippers and Jazz have taken turns giving up monster games to players on the opposing team, with both Chris Paul and Gordon Hayward going into the upper 50s/lower 60s of fantasy points just last game. There is no defense to avoid on Sunday.
Offense to Use: Oklahoma City Thunder, at HOU. Cleveland, Indiana or Houston are good picks based on how their series have gone. But the Thunder have also been explosive offensively, are playing at home, have the single most explosive player in the game (though playoff LeBron is giving him a run for his money) and also have several value players producing.
James Harden, HOU at OKC ($11,100): Yes, there's a great likelihood that Russell Westbrook will score in the 70s of fantasy points or higher, and he's the one playing at home. But through some fluke in DraftKings pricing, Harden's price keeps going down even as he's turned in games of 65.8, 52 and 61 fantasy points this series. Westbrook has a higher expected value Sunday, but not $2,700 higher based on how they've played this postseason.
Chris Paul, LAC at UTA ($9,800): Paul isn't exactly moderately priced, so feel free to consider options like Kyrie Irving ($8,000) or George Hill ($5,900) in this slot as good plays at lower price. But Paul deserves a shout-out, because he's playing like a monster (57.8, 47 and 63.3 fantasy points in the playoffs), and if anything he'll have to take a bigger role due to Blake Griffin's injury.
Jerian Grant, CHI vs BOS ($3,700): Grant only managed 7.3 fantasy points in 15.1 minutes of his injury replacement start in Game 3, eventually getting benched for Michael Carter-Williams. However, coach Fred Hoiberg has been all over the Chicago airwaves saying that Grant will start again Sunday and that the team has confidence in him. Put that with Grant having some pretty big games as a starter down the stretch of the season, and his still near-minimum price tag, and he could be good value if he can get it going Sunday.
LeBron James, CLE at IND ($11,900): This can be no one but LeBron. Paul George ($10,300) and Jimmy Butler ($10,000) both project to huge games themselves Sunday, but in LeBron's last four games against the Pacers, his WORST game was 61.5 fantasy points. In two of those games he exceeded 80 fantasy points, including his Game 3 effort. LeBron is even outscoring Russell Westbrook from a fantasy perspective this postseason.
Gordon Hayward, UTA vs LAC ($7,700): Hayward is dual SF/PF eligible, which lets him fit in this slot. Hayward was OK the first couple games in the series, scoring in the low-mid 30s of fantasy points, but the Jazz clearly needed more from him as the de facto best player with Rudy Gobert out. Hayward delivered on that in Game 3, scoring 59.5 fantasy points in a dual against Chris Paul. The scene is set for Hayward to do heavy lifting again on Sunday, as the Jazz need to win at home to even the series going back to L.A.
Andre Roberson, OKC vs HOU ($5,400): Roberson has been consistently strong this postseason, scoring 38.5, 32 and 36.5 fantasy points in the first three games. He has played well against the Thunder all season and has stepped it up in the postseason. On Sunday he'll play in front of the home crowd and has the same circumstances that have led to his great play, so his expected value should remain in the same range.
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at UTA ($7,900): Jordan has dominated the paint all series, grabbing more than 14 rebounds per game and scoring at an extremely high percentage with Rudy Gobert out. Now, teammate Blake Griffin is done for the playoffs as well, which puts Jordan in position to produce even more.
Al Horford, BOS at CHI ($6,700): Horford has upped his distribution responsibilities this postseason, averaging 6.3 assists in addition to almost 15 points and almost nine rebounds in the first three games of the series. He is coming off a 47-fantasy point effort in Game 3, and the Celtics still need him and the rest of the team to play well to try to even up the series going back to Boston.
Tristan Thompson, CLE at IND ($4,700): Thompson has grabbed double-digit rebounds in all three games in the series and is coming off his best game when he came within one point of a double-double along with three blocks. He's consistently in the mid-20s of fantasy points and has upside into the 30s at a reasonable price.
