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Early Fantasy Football ADP: Top-50 PPR

Training camps are opening around the NFL this week, which means fantasy drafts are being scheduled and more importantly for this exercise -- mocked. I will be your ADP guru on the newly redesigned RotoWire blog as the 2014 season approaches. Every Tuesday and Friday we will look at trends from both mocks and real drafts as the numbers roll in. Let's start at the top and look at top 50 PPR data from National Fantasy Football Championships (thanks to our friends at STATS).

Positional Breakdown

QB: 3 (6%)
RB: 20 (40%)
WR: 24 (48%)
TE: 3 (6%)

Where Are the Workhorses?

Fantasy continues to mimic reality with respect to the running back position being devalued. This was the second consecutive year that no running back was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Sure, a running back likely will go first in most fantasy drafts, but the position is getting less and less top heavy.  NFL offenses are throwing the ball more than ever and two-thirds of the league has some sort of committee in place. It shows in the early ADP data, too.  After Eddie Lacy (8.4 ADP),  five receivers, TE Jimmy Graham (9.2) and QB Peyton Manning (11.4) are going higher than the next running back, Montee Ball (16.0).

Breakout Candidates

Speaking of Montee Ball, there is a strong contingent of unproven players in the top 50 expected to take advantage of new opportunities. Knowshon Moreno is in Miami now, making the Denver job Ball's to lose. He couldn't seize the opportunity in 2013, but the second-year back's ADP of 16 suggests fantasy owners have faith he's next in the long line of runners to find success behind Peyton Manning. Andre Ellington (32.6) is another sophomore running back in line to get starter's touches for the first time. With his prowess as a receiver, Ellington, who is sandwiched between big-name veterans Andre Johnson (31.6) and Rob Gronkowski (33), figures to be especially valuable in PPR formats. Four-year veteran Toby Gerhart moved to Jacksonville for his shot to step out from Adrian Peterson's shadow. If he can sustain the 4.7 yards per carry he achieved in Minnesota with a full workload, Gerhart's 50.4 ADP will be a bargain. The only problem is he now runs behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranked last in run blocking a year ago.

Here is the top 50.

RankPlayerAvg Pick
1LeSean McCoy (RB, Phi)1.4
2Jamaal Charles (RB, KC)2.4
3Calvin Johnson (WR, Det)3.8
4Matt Forte (RB, Chi)4.2
5Adrian Peterson (RB, Min)4.8
6Demaryius Thomas (WR, Den)6.6
7Dez Bryant (WR, Dal)8.4
8Eddie Lacy (RB, GB)8.4
9Jimmy Graham (TE, NO)9.2
10A.J. Green (WR, Cin)10.2
11Brandon Marshall (WR, Chi)11.0
12Peyton Manning (QB, Den)11.4
13Julio Jones (WR, Atl)13.8
14Jordy Nelson (WR, GB)15.4
15Alshon Jeffery (WR, Chi)15.6
16Montee Ball (RB, Den)16.0
17DeMarco Murray (RB, Dal)17.0
18Antonio Brown (WR, Pit)17.8
19Arian Foster (RB, Hou)18.6
20Randall Cobb (WR, GB)20.6
21Le'Veon Bell (RB, Pit)22.2
22Marshawn Lynch (RB, Sea)23.6
23Drew Brees (QB, NO)23.8
24Giovani Bernard (RB, Cin)24.8
25Julius Thomas (TE, Den)25.6
26Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)27.2
27Doug Martin (RB, TB)27.4
28Keenan Allen (WR, SD)28.6
29C.J. Spiller (RB, Buf)28.8
30Pierre Garcon (WR, Was)29.2
31Andre Johnson (WR, Hou)31.6
32Andre Ellington (RB, Ari)32.6
33Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)33.0
34Vincent Jackson (WR, TB)33.2
35Zac Stacy (RB, StL)34.2
36Victor Cruz (WR, NYG)36.8
37Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Ari)37.6
38Shane Vereen (RB, NE)37.6
39Wes Welker (WR, Den)40.4
40Roddy White (WR, Atl)40.6
41Reggie Bush (RB, Det)41.2
42Michael Crabtree (WR, SF)43.6
43Julian Edelman (WR, NE)44.4
44T.Y. Hilton (WR, Ind)44.6
45Michael Floyd (WR, Ari)44.8
46Percy Harvin (WR, Sea)46.6
47Alfred Morris (RB, Was)48.8
48Toby Gerhart (RB, Jax)50.4
49DeSean Jackson (WR, Was)50.6
50Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG)50.8

Just Missed

I also want to highlight the players who fall just outside the top 50 because there are some interesting names. Trent Richardson, Ryan Matthews and Chris Johnson are former first-round picks who fantasy players are afraid to trust. Richardson was going No. 1 overall in some dynasty leagues in 2013, to give you an idea of how far his stock has fallen.

The second-tier of quarterbacks begins with Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck --  28.8 picks separate QB3 Rodgers and QB4 Stafford.

We also get our first rookies on the list in RB Bishop Sankey and WR Sammy Watkins at 62 and 63, respectively. Expect Sankey to move up considerably as it becomes more clear that he'll win the starting job in Titans camp. Watkins, however, could be over-drafted in a lot of leagues, as is often the case with top rookie receivers (see: Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson in 2013).

51Trent Richardson (RB, Ind)51.2
52Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Min)52.0
53Jordan Cameron (TE, Cle)53.4
54Mike Wallace (WR, Mia)54.4
55Matthew Stafford (QB, Det)56.0
56Torrey Smith (WR, Bal)56.2
57Jeremy Maclin (WR, Phi)58.0
58Ryan Mathews (RB, SD)59.4
59Kendall Wright (WR, Ten)60.4
60Chris Johnson (RB, NYJ)61.4
61Andrew Luck (QB, Ind)61.6
62Bishop Sankey (RB, Ten)62.0
63Sammy Watkins (WR, Buf)63.0