Last week we looked at players who were undervalued by average draft position heading into training camp. With all teams now reported for full squad work, it's time to examine overvalued fantasy assets in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. That's not to say these guys are must-not-owns, just not worth the price drafters are currently paying for their services.
Peyton Manning
ESPN ADP: 5.9 | QB1
Yahoo ADP: 10.4 | QB1
There's no doubt that Peyton Manning is fantasy football's No. 1 passer entering 2014. The question is, how high is too high for the record-setting quarterback? Well, 5.9 is too high. It will be nearly impossible for Manning to reach the ridiculous production he achieved in 2013, so don't spend your first pick trying to chase it, especially within the top-6 overall.
Andrew Luck
ESPN: 41.1 | QB6
Yahoo: 51.9 | QB6
Luck is a perfect example of a quarterback who is more valuable to his real team than your fake team. Indianapolis offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton wants the Colts to be a run-first power offense. With continued development, you may end up with a team that can actually get a lead, giving them the luxury of running out the clock in the fourth quarter rather than asking Luck to go win it. And this could be said about any of the quarterbacks at the top of the 2nd tier -- why draft Luck at 41 when you can wait to land Nick Foles (54.7), Tom Brady (61.8) or Matt Ryan (83.3) and get similar production?
Arian Foster
ESPN: 12.7 | RB8
Yahoo: 18.0 | RB9
I'm afraid of what the future holds for Arian Foster for two major reasons. One, his long injury history. The 27-year-old, coming off season-ending back surgery in 2013, has played a full slate of 16 games only twice in his five year career and already was held out of practice this week with a bum leg. Two, Gary Kubiak and his fantastic running scheme are gone. New Texans head coach Bill O'Brien comes from the Bill Belichick tree. New England's offense has had a recent history of frustrating rushing committees, dating back to fantasy juggernauts Lawrence Maroney, Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris. While O'Brien was on staff (2007-2011), the Patriots had one 1,000 yard rusher (Green-Ellis, 1,008 yards, 2010) and his Penn State rushing offenses ranked 46th and 58th in the country over the past two seasons.
DeSean Jackson
ESPN: 42.5 | WR14
Yahoo: 44.5 | WR19
Jackson's 82 catch 2013 season was an obvious statistical outlier. He averaged just 55 receptions per year prior to last season. His new quarterback Robert Griffin throws a great deep ball, but it will be difficult for Jackson to increase an already lofty 16.6 yards per catch.
Overvalued Rookies
Johnny Manziel
ESPN: 116.2 | QB16
Yahoo: 126.4 | QB23
It's not surprising that ESPN leaguers are excited about Manziel due to the coverage he gets on that network. The hype greatly outweighs the cost for a quarterback who is currently a backup in Cleveland. With an ADP of 116.2, Manziel is going before veteran passers like Ben Roethlisberger (123.2), Andy Dalton (126.4), Joe Flacco (129.0), Carson Palmer (139.3) and young breakout candidates Ryan Tannehill (136.8) and EJ Manuel (145.1) -- all of whom are projected to be more productive than the rookie.
Sammy Watkins
ESPN: 72.5 | WR26
Yahoo: 108.8 | WR39
Watkins is immensely talented with pure hands and explosive 4.4 speed, but when you consider the well documented struggles of first-year wide receivers and Buffalo's run-heavy offense, his immediate value is questionable. The former Clemson Tiger's dynasty league upside is off the charts, just don't pay for future success in re-draft formats. Only two rookie wide receivers have logged 1,000 yards in since 2005 (A.J. Green, Keenan Allen).