The emergence of Statcast has been one of the best parts of the 2015 season. MLB Network has done a great job utilizing the new tool to break down plays all season long, whether it's pitching, hitting, running, or defense. The tool has brought a lot of great new data to all facets of the game. One of my favorite stats that we've seen is the Exit Velocity for hitters. Velocity for pitchers is one of the most telling stats available and while pitchers can succeed without it, having it definitely increases the margin for error and bumps up the ceiling.
Exit Velocity isn't a perfect parallel for hitters, but it is still very useful. If you're regularly crushing the ball, good things are going to happen. Rarely is a guy excelling in Exit Velocity and having nothing to show for it in his results. Just as with pitcher's velocity, a high EV doesn't guarantee stardom, but it's hard to be a total dud when ranking amongst the leaders of either category. Exit Velocity can substantiate a breakout or help identify some undervalued assets. The wonderful BaseballSavant.com has EV Statcast data available for our viewing pleasure so let's start with the Top 20:
A lot of names you would expect to see on such a list including the leader who should surprise absolutely nobody. You're probably nodding your head as you peruse the list as it's a veritable who's-who of big-time hitters, but some names probably standout as interesting or even odd and deserve a deeper look:
Kyle Schwarber, CHC – Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler were tabbed as the rookies to watch for the Cubs this year and that is completely understandable given their pedigree and potential, but Schwarber has stolen the show. He finished 2014 in High-A and with some questions about his ability to catch, most outlets didn't see him making the bigs in 2015, let alone having an impact. Our own top 200 crew and Baseball America were very high on him coming into the season, though, slotting him 21st and 19th in the preseason prospect lists, respectively.
Schwarber has had an amazing season and it's borne out in all the numbers. The .310/.400/.595 line was probably enough to convince you that he's having an amazing season, but the 43% Hard contact rate and third-best EV on average go a long way toward proving the line is no fluke. He is absolutely mashing the ball on a regular basis and while he will almost certainly cool down somewhat as the league gets a thicker book on him, there is little doubt that this guy is a primetime hitter.
Add in that he's a catcher who will at least maintain catcher-eligibility for 2016 barring something crazy (he has 16 games there so far this year) and it's hard not be ridiculously excited about Schwarber's immediate future.
Danny Valencia, OAK – Poor Toronto. They apparently had so many good players that they had to cut this guy and Billy Beane immediately snapped him up for his A's. As a 30-year old journeyman, it's hard to push this too far out as someone to invest in for the long-term, but seeing Valencia rate so highly on the EV leaderboard puts a lot of juice behind his .531 SLG. I'll admit, I thought it was pretty fluky when he got off to the hot start and I wish I'd have looked at the EV leaders earlier as it may've prompted me to pick up Valencia.
Mind you, it still would've only been a deeper league play as he wasn't getting everyday run in Toronto even as he continued to mash, but the A's have put him in the lineup with much more regularity (just two games missed since joining them on August 5th). The oddest thing about Valencia's season is that he actually has a career-high 53% GB rate, but it's just come out his LD% (career-low 15%) as he's still hitting enough flyballs (32%) to continually destroy the opposition.
EV figures are just a piece of the puzzle. I wouldn't pick up or cut someone based solely on EV data, but Valencia's batted profile alone didn't have me all that interested in a guy who has been a short-side platoon guy throughout his career (216-point platoon split w/an .862 OPS v. LHP). Seeing that he is scalding the ball with regularity adds to the equation on turns up the intrigue.
David Peralta, ARI – Here's my guy. This guy has had quite a journey to the majors with several years of independent ball under his belt before finally breaking in at 26 years old last year. Oh and by the way, he was pretty good in a 348 PA sample last year, posting a 112 OPS+ with some power and speed. He has shown that it was not only legitimate, but just the beginning. He's got a 139 OPS+ in 383 PA this year with plenty of pop (12 HRs, 42 XBHs, and .519 SLG) and still a touch of speed (5 SBs) to make him a more well-rounded fantasy asset.
He's sandwiched between two well-established power threats on the EV leaderboard in Jose Bautista and Pedro Alvarez which certainly justifies a lot of what we're seeing from Peralta this year. He isn't a raw masher like those two, but he strikes the ball extremely well and does it to all fields. Despite not being a traditional HR hitter, he sits 27th in the league in Hard contact rate at 36%. If you push the decimal out, he's a tick above Yoenis Cespedes (35.7% to 35.6%) which is mighty impressive.
Peralta has also greatly improved against lefties, going from unplayable (.510 OPS last year) to solid (.736 OPS this year). His ability to use the whole field has been the key development there. Last season he had a 50% Pull rate against lefties in his 81 PA, this year it's down to 30% in 68 PA. Both are small samples so it's not set in stone that he can take on lefties, but he's also bounced the walk rate against them from 5% to 9% showing an overall better approach against them. The D'Backs will still sit him against some lefties, but it hasn't really hampered his playing time overall as he's been in 109 of their 118 games.
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Others of interest:
Randal Grichuk just hit the DL with an elbow injury so I'll save him for a later date, but he deserves his own feature piece anyway so look forward to that. I was positively giddy to land him for $3 in my NL-Only keeper this year (yes, that's a brag, but it's the only thing I've done right in that league this year so let me have this one) hoping the former first-rounder could show me something and he's exceeded even my wildest expectations. Hopefully he's back soon, but either way, I'll be giving him a full write-up in October.
Despite his massive slump, Joc Pederson still finds himself in the top 20. He's a good example of just how hard the major leagues are as few players were riding as high as he was earlier this year, but the huge swing-and-miss factor of his game has proven too much to continually excel. He still has a great OBP and SLG (.358/.447) for a 23-year old, but with a .217 AVG there just isn't enough contact right now.
Marcell Ozuna is a very intriguing name on this list and someone I loved coming into the season. As I mentioned at the outset, a quality EV doesn't guarantee you any success. It's a nice foundation, but just hammering the ball all the time can't keep you on a major league roster as Ozuna learned after a month-long demotion to Triple-A. I remain quite interested in the 24-year old and would definitely pick him up where available in hopes that he can once again turn that big EV into results as he did last year with 23 HRs and a .455 SLG (just 4 and .334 in 334 PA so far this year).