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Week 5 Observations

I started my football Sunday in Hamburg - we made an overnight trip there to check it out as it's only two hours by train. Oddly, we had trouble getting into our hotel the previous day because the German national soccer team - the equivalent here of the NBA dream team if basketball were far and away our No. 1 sport - was staying there. There were people mobbing the entrance, hoping to snap photos, and only after I pounded on a glass window long enough for a hotel employee to see my room key pressed up against the pane were we let in through a side door. It was a zoo. (I snapped a photo of the fauna the next day when it was far less mobbed.)

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(Heather and Sasha walking toward a playground in the St. Pauli neighborhood. Above, the hordes hoping to catch a glimpse of the national squad.)

• Every Giants game is more or less the same: predictable and ineffective running on 1st-and-10, lots of short throws, not much scoring. This one was worse than usual because Eli Manning played his worst game of the year, getting only 5.1 YPA against a depleted Packers secondary, taking three sacks and losing a fumble. His only TD was on a great catch by Odell Beckham in garbage time, and he missed a wide open Will Tye on what should have been a huge play.

• The Giants defense played well. While Aaron Rodgers had all day to throw and was not sacked, he threw two picks and managed only 5.8 YPA. The Packers biggest play from scrimmage was only 29 yards.

• Randall Cobb was effective, making plays all over the field and running after the catch. Same with Davante Adams. Jordy Nelson struggled to get open, but got his fifth TD catch in four games.

• Beckham had a great TD catch, but otherwise didn't do much. The box score has him at 12 targets, but it seemed like he had about seven or eight catchable ones. Somehow even when the Giants are pass heavy and throwing to Beckham, it's still small ball, even against the league's worst pass defenses.

• Eddie Lacy looked powerful and spry before leaving in the third quarter with an ankle injury. I suppose James Starks will get some FAAB bids this week.

• Josh Brown should have a huge year in this play-for-the-field-goal style offense.

• Tom Brady is once again a top-three QB, possibly No. 1.

• James White finally has a little value until/unless Dion Lewis returns, as Brady will target him out of the backfield more, and there will be more to go around generally.

• Martellus Bennett got the TDs, but Rob Gronkowski is completely back with 109 yards on seven targets.

• Chris Hogan should occupy the Brandon LaFell role from a couple years ago - the downfield threat opposite Julian Edelman.

 With Cody Kessler hurt, the Browns turned to Charlie Whitehurst, but honestly what's the point? Just put Terrelle Pryor in and let us enjoy it.

 As Eagles fans in my Twitter feed pointed out, the Lions had two penalties for 18 yards and the Eagles 14 for 111, some of which were questionable.

• Darren Sproles looks the same at 33 as he did at 25. Ryan Mathews led the team with 11 carries, and Wendell Smallwood had none.

• Carson Wentz finally threw a pick on the team's final drive, but he played well again with 7.2 YPA and two TD throws despite the unfavorable treatment by the refs.

• Theo Riddick ran more effectively and caught two TDs. With Dwayne Washington banged up and Zach Zenner doing nothing, Riddick is their starting back.

• The Eagles spread the ball around so evenly, it's impossible to guess which receiver might have a big game. Dorial-Green Beckham had an end-zone target and is part of the game plan, but neither he (nor anyone else) will break out with seven players seeing at least three targets. Oddly, Nelson Agholor led the team with seven, but had only two catches for 27 yards.

• The Lions targets were split four ways between the three wideouts and Riddick. Golden Tate made an appearance on the final drive, but Marvin Jones scored the non-Riddick TD.

• Brian Hoyer continues to play well but has neglected Alshon Jeffery (six targets, five catches, 77 yards.) That would be a solid day normally, but Hoyer threw for 397 yards, 130 of which went to Cameron Meredith. (Meredith is 6-3, and runs a 4.42 40, so he's worth picking up even if he doesn't get to face the Colts every week.) With Hoyer, Zach Miller is also a top-10 TE.

• With five field goals Sunday, two of which were from 50-plus, Adam Vinatieri is enjoying a Barry Bondsian career arc. He's now made five 50 yarders in five games at age 44. Even when he was winning Super Bowls in his prime, he wasn't known for having a particularly strong leg. In fact, over the last 21 games he's made more 50 yarders than he did during his first 12 seasons (1996-2007.) From 2012 through five weeks of 2016, he's made 20 such kicks. From 1996-2011, he made only 12.

• It was a weak defense, but Jordan Howard destroyed it. He also caught three passes for 45 yards and a TD for good measure. He's a top-10 back.

• Andrew Luck played well, but took five more sacks. He won't hold up at this pace.

 • T.Y. Hilton is subject to Luck's health risk, but otherwise is a top-10 receiver. Phillip Dorsett is droppable.

• Marcus Mariota finally had a good fantasy game with a rushing TD and three passing ones. He still managed only 5.6 YPA, has bad receivers and plays in a run-heavy offense, so it's hard to get excited. Delanie Walker is his only usable target.

• Jay Ajayi is the Dolphins starter for now, but as usual he's wasn't especially impressive.

• Ryan Tannehill got 10.2 YPA, zero TDs and two picks. That's hard to do unless you also take six sacks and only attempt 18 passes. DeVante Parker could be a monster if he played with even a decent QB.

• The Vikings are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21, but Vegas never adjusts. This game went off at only six points despite the Texans missing J.J. Watt and the game being in Minnesota. Yes, they got another special teams TD, but maybe they're doing something the metrics aren't picking up.

• With Stefon Diggs down, Adam Thielen picked up the slack without a problem. He's 6-2, 200 and ran a 4.45 40, so it might not be a fluke.

• Jerick McKinnon saw 20 carries, but was completely stuffed. Matt Asiata got the goal-line looks and did better as a receiver.

• With Eric Decker out, Brandon Marshall (15 targets) was the only game in town. Quincy Enunwa saw seven, and no other wideout saw more than two.

• Bilal Powell had eight targets, Matt Forte only two. Forte has only eight catches the last four games.

• Sammie Coates did his best Martavis Bryant impression with two TDs, 139 yards and a couple drops. Coates, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown each had 11 targets.

• The Jets secondary is among the league's worst - they're in Saints territory now.

• Bell went nine for 78 and is basically a possession receiver and a full-time running back.

• Brown is having a surprisingly pedestrian year by his standards, but is still averaging 90 yards and a TD through five games, prorating to 119 catches for 1,440 yards and 16 scores. If he has a huge game against the Dolphins next week, he'll be back on his insane pace of the last two years, only with more TDs.

• DeAngelo Williams has to be the only back in the modern NFL that goes from heaviest usage in the league to no usage whatsoever once another player comes back from injury.

• Nobody did anything in the Redskins-Ravens game. Terrance West had 95 yards on only 11 carries, but for some reason the Ravens stopped feeding him. And Pierre Garcon got his usual 56 yards, this time with a score.

• The Falcons had a great game plan in Denver, attacking the middle with their speedy backs in the passing game and running the ball. The result was an amazing 9.5 YPA for Matt Ryan and an easy win against arguably the league's best defense.

• Tevin Coleman has turned into their top receiver out of the backfield, but Devonta Freeman is firmly the starter, goal line back and is a competent receiver in his own right.

• Julio Jones' game logs from Weeks 3-5:

WeekTarRecYdsTD
371160
415123001
562190

• C.J. Anderson hasn't played well since early in the year, and Devontae Booker is cutting into his workload - five fewer carries for Booker, but two more targets.

• Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders appeared to miss Trevor Siemian, but both still got something, thanks to Denver's narrow tree.

• I'm not sure how much of it was Paxton Lynch, but Atlanta's defense looked pretty good.

• I take back what I said last week about Ezekiel Elliott not looking especially talented. He moves very quickly for a big back, and it doesn't hurt that he's always running through canyonesque holes.

• Brandon LaFell is the team's clear No. 2, and with Tyler Eifert still out, that means something,

• Dak Prescott might be this year's Russell Wilson. He still hasn't thrown a pick, and you have to wonder whether Tony Romo ever gets his job back.

• Mike McCoy has to go. Opting for a field goal on 4th-and-inches from the 18-yard line down three with 2:07 left is terrible. Yes, if you hit it you tie the game, but then Oakland has two minutes to get into field-goal range to beat you. If you make the first down, you either score the TD and win and you run the clock down and ensure a FG sends it to overtime. Put differently, the chances of getting stuffed are smaller than the chances of getting beat on the ensuing drive. Moreover, the best you can do if you make the FG is tie, and if you convert, you actually might win. It serves them right that the snap was botched, and they lost anyway.

• Philip Rivers got 12.0 YPA. He deserves better than this franchise.

• I say this every week, and I'll say it again: I don't care how many TDs Melvin Gordon scores - he's not good. He fumbled to let the Raiders take the lead, and he couldn't get a yard on third and one. He's the worst "closer" in the game.

• Tyrell Williams is the Chargers best receiver. I'm not sure why they don't target him more. Travis Benjamin is still the "No. 1" for now, and Dontrelle Inman's big game last week looks like a fluke.

• Derek Carr finally had a reasonably efficient day (7.9 YPA) because he targeted Amari Cooper (12) more than Michael Crabtree (7). I wouldn't bank on that continuing, but it would be good for the Raiders if it did.

• None of the Raiders running backs stood out.

• Jeff Fisher opted for a field goal (and the announcers were supportive of the decision) down seven at the four yard line with six minutes left. The Rams kicked off, forced the Bills to punt, got the ball back, and didn't go anywhere. So on 4th-and-5 at his own 23 with 3:47 left, Fisher fakes the punt! Instead of trying for a game-tying score from four-yards out with their first-team offense, they decide Bradley Marquez getting five yards on the fake punt simply to extend the drive (still deep in their own end) was the better play. If Fisher trusted his defense so much, why not go for it, and if you get stuffed, you have the Bills pinned back with plenty of time to get the ball back in good field position and score? If he didn't trust his offense to get four yards on one play, why would he trust it to make it down the field on a subsequent drive? He's obviously just checked out with respect to strategy. He's been at it so long with mostly break-even results, he's like a drunk at the blackjack table at 3 am, hitting on 16 against a nine on one hand, sticking on 14 against a 10 on another. There's no rhyme or reason, just whatever he feels at the moment. Whether he gets it right or wrong is totally random.

• The Bills receiving corps is a wasteland. The Rams might not be if they had a competent QB.

• LeSean McCoy looked like the 25-year old version of himself. He only caught two passes for eight yards, however.

• Todd Gurley ran hard, but they have to get Case Keenum out of there. Gurley also caught three more passes for 36 yards.

• How awful must Jared Goff look in practice for Keenum still to be starting?

• I tweet a lot during NFL Sundays, and I get a little back and forth going with my followers, but for the most part few people are especially interested in what I'm saying. But I retweeted this photo (NSFW) taken by RotoWire's business guy Ken Crites at the Browns game, and my mentions went crazy all day.