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The O-Zone: Good job, Ron Washington

Part of being a baseball writer and fan is to criticize. We dump on players, managers, GMís, umps Ö and, in some markets, the ballboys and peanut vendors.

Today, though, I want to give credit where credit is due.

Youíre doing a great job, Ron Washington.

What makes me say this? Two recent RotoWire player updates caught my attention.

The first: Nelson Cruz will be eased into the lineup and will graduate to a full-time role as the season progresses.

I spent a lot of time thinking about this one. At first, I thought this was a great idea. Why throw your young star to the wolves? Pick your spots early, get him comfortable, and let him progress at a rate thatís comfortable for him and the team.

Then I turned against the idea. Everyday at-bats are crucial for a young player, I said to myself. To learn and improve, Cruz needs to be in the lineup just about always.

Finally, I took a step back and looked at the big picture. Maybe this is a good idea, maybe it isnít. Regardless, I commend Washington for this decision. He has constructed a plan that he thinks will aid Cruz now and will help Cruz reach his potential down the road. Many times when we criticize managers, we ask, ďWhat was he THINKING?Ē Well, Washingtonís handling of Cruz proves heís putting a lot of thought into the decisions he makes. I like that.

The second: Kevin Millwood and the other Texas starters will be limited to 100 pitches the first two times through the rotation.

This makes Washington one of my favorite managers ever. Every year, I write a column about pitcher overuse, and I plan on having Pitcher Overuse Week here in The O-Zone later this season. It really bothers me when good pitchers -- perhaps the gameís most precious resource -- are used and abused. I find it refreshing to see a manager who understands how dangerous high pitch counts can be, especially early in the season. As with his Cruz decision, Washington is thinking about whatís best for his players -- and his team -- both now and later.

Bravo, Mr. Washington.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/6/2007 10:41:00 PM

Comments (3)

The O-Zone: Lopez staying put?

LOPEZ A SHORTSTOP AGAIN

It didnít take long for Cristian Guzman to get hurt again, did it? The Washington shortstop strained a hammy and is out for a few weeks. In the meantime, Ron Belliard takes over at second base, while Felipe Lopez shifts over to shortstop.

Iíve talked about Belliard in a previous blog post, and this whole Nationals scenario has been analyzed by many other writers, too. Iím not going to rehash everything here. But there is one thing I want to mention, something I havenít seen elsewhere.

Letís say Belliard hits well. Heís off to a good start in that regard -- .444 average -- and even on his worst day heís an upgrade over Guzman. And letís say the punchless Nationals like Belliardís offense and want to keep him in the lineup. Perhaps heíll stay at second base when Guzman returns, Lopez will remain at shortstop, and Guzman will be a defensive replacement/pinch-runner/guy who sweeps up the sunflower seeds in the dugout.

This would be bad for Lopezís fantasy value. Though I didnít land Lopez in any of my leagues, I was willing to go the extra buck or two on him because I thought heíd be eligible at second base and shortstop. If he stays at shortstop most of the time, heíll never get the 20 games at second he needs.

Anyway, this is just something to keep an eye on. If you planned on shifting Lopez over to second at some point this year, watch this situation closely. And if you own Lopez in a keeper league and planned on him being your long-term answer at second base, you might have to come up with a Plan B.

AL REYES EMERGES

If the Devil Rays have a closer committee, Reyes is the chairman. Letís take a look at him using Ron Shandlerís rule of ďTOG.Ē

T: TALENT

Reyes has it. He missed last year due to injury, but look back at 2005: He struck out more than a batter an inning, had decent enough control (20 walks in 62 2/3 innings) and kept the ball in the yard (just five home runs allowed). These arenít elite skills, but they are quite good. There are many closers who canít match what Reyes brings to the table.

O: OPPORTUNITY

Again, I think Reyes earns a high grade. The D-Rays might have a committee, but thereís no doubt Reyes is the main man right now. As long as he keeps his head above water, heíll get the majority of the save chances. There isnít much good competition here.

G: GUILE

We canít really judge this yet. We need to see more.

I just picked up Reyes in an AL-only league Iím in, so I know heís still out there in some leagues. Grab him.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/6/2007 10:38:00 AM

Comments (2)

The O-Zone: Riske proposition

It didnít take long for the closer carousel to turn, did it? Octavio Dotel has hit the DL with a strained oblique, and David Riske will step in as Kansas Cityís closer until Dotel returns.

First, some thoughts on Dotel. The Royals have said the injury doesnít look too bad and that Dotel shouldnít be out for long. However, we all know how oblique injuries have a tendency to linger and/or recur. If Dotel is out for longer than expected, we shouldnít be surprised. If he returns too early and strains his side all over again, that wouldnít be a shocker, either.

Iím not saying we need to hit the panic button here. Itís not *that* bad. But Dotel owners shouldnít operate under the assumption that heíll be back in a couple of weeks and everything will be jim dandy.

As for Riske, itís hard to have high hopes. He really doesnít have closer stuff anymore. At one point, he boasted stellar dominance -- his strikeout rate was regularly above 9.0, and even hit a high of 11.4 in 2002.

Thatís a thing of the past, though. Riskeís strikeout rate the last two years: 5.95, 5.73. Dominance like that is hardly even adequate, much less the mark of an elite closer. Riske wonít rack up enough Kís to be a stellar stopper.

Riske also allowed six home runs in 44 innings last year. Again, thatís a bit much for a closer. And that homer total wasnít a fluke -- Riske gives up a lot of fly balls (0.94 G/F last year).

Saves are saves, so Riske is worth a pickup. Just be aware that he isnít what he was a few years ago. He might be a closer, but heís no longer closer-worthy.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/5/2007 1:35:00 PM

Comments (3)

K-Rod Cheating?
You Be the Judge.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 4/5/2007 10:27:00 AM
Comments (2)

The O-Zone: Colorado and Carpenter

COLORADO CALAMITY?

The Colorado Rockies have given manager Clint Hurdle and general manager Dan OíDowd two-year extensions. Seems a little too much, a little too soon, methinks.

Hurdle replaced Buddy Bell as manager in 2002. The Rockies went 67-73 under Hurdle that year. Since then, Hurdle has led the Rockies to records of 74-88, 68-94, 67-95, 76-86.

Couldnít the Rockies have waited to see some improvement before handing over a two-year extension to Hurdle? Listen, I know Colorado is a tough place to win -- the thin air, the inability to lure top free-agent pitchers, etc. And I know the Rockies havenít had the best players, either. But the fact is Hurdle has yet to manage a team to a .500 record. Why not sit Hurdle down early in the season and say, ďYou have a solid young nucleus to work with now. We want to see some improvement in these young players, as well as in the win column. Do that, youíll earn a nice extension.Ē Colorado is assuming this team will improve and assuming Hurdle is the man to get the job done. Sorry, but judging by his record, Iím not willing to make that leap of faith.

As for OíDowd, I give credit to him for building a strong, young foundation. You look at this team and see Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta, and there are more hot shots on the way. But the fact is OíDowd has been on the job since 2000 and has yet to assemble a contending team. Why not wait and see if these young guys develop before forking over an extension? Why not wait to see improvement in the win column? The Rockies ownership could at least wait until the All-Star break. They are putting too much faith in a GM who has accomplished zero.

CARPENTER CATASTROPHE?

We canít freak out about Chris Carpenterís elbow injury Ö yet. Hopefully this is just a blip, and heíll come back healthy and strong in a week or two.

But Iím worried.

When I was doing my old weekly column, every year Iíd write an article about pitchers who I thought would break down. Carpenter was a mainstay on the list. Why? A combination of injury and workload concerns.

Carpenter missed all of 2003 after undergoing shoulder surgery. He came back in 2004, but the Cardinals didnít baby him -- he pitched 182 innings. Seemed a bit much.

The next year, 2005, things really got out of control. Between the regular season and playoffs, Carpenter tossed 262 2/3 innings. Obviously, thatís way too much for anyone, never mind a guy two years removed from shoulder surgery. The hefty workload continued last season: Carpenter tossed 254 innings (playoffs included).

If the injury proves to be serious, I wonít be surprised. No need to panic yet, Carpenter owners, but you probably should start thinking about Plan B. Look for some trade partners. Search the free-agent wire. This could be a bad one.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/4/2007 1:03:00 PM

Comments (2)

Worst First Pitch ... Ever
Just watch the video.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 4/4/2007 10:48:00 AM
Comments (3)

Only in Milwaukee
Perhaps the greatest tailgate party ever.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 4/3/2007 7:46:00 PM
Comments (2)

The O-Zone: Opening thoughts

* Kudos to Gil Meche. After signing a $55 million contract that was maligned by everyone except him and the Royals, he pitched a great game against a Red Sox squad whose offense should be formidable.

But letís not get ahead of ourselves here. I heard many broadcasters yesterday say that maybe Meche will be worth the money after all. Itís way too early for that. Meche has a long way to go to prove that heís a consistently solid starter.

Take a look back to last year. There were times when Meche was dominant. For instance, last June he had a 1.60 ERA with the peripherals to back it up: 26/10 K/BB in 34 2/3 innings, just two home runs allowed. But then came July, when he had a 5.67 ERA. And August, where his earned run average ballooned to 6.87.

Donít buy into the hype youíll hear on TV and the radio. And if Meche has a few more good starts, you might want to sell high -- history indicates he wonít be able to sustain a hot streak.

* Nook Logan is already hurt. Chris Snelling will see plenty of time in left field while Logan is out, and the Nationals called up Kory Casto to replace Logan on the roster.

Casto is an interesting player. There are a lot of positives here. Last year at Double-A, he walked a splendid 81 times (albeit with 104 strikeouts), got on base at a fine .379 clip, hit for some power (20 home runs) and flashed a little speed (six steals). Weíre not talking Willie Mays here, but he certainly is a nice player.

All that being said, there are many questions with regards to Casto. He hasnít played above Double-A -- can he handle the majors now, or does he need more seasoning? Also, how much playing time is he going to get? And can he hit for power at RFK?

All remain to be seen. In a deep yearly league, Casto is worth a pickup, but donít go crazy to get him. Too much uncertainty here.

* John Kruk, during yesterdayís Yankees-Devil Rays tilt: ďRobinson Cano is like a young Bobby Abreu.Ē

OK, John.

Abreu last year: 124 walks. He plays right field.

Cano last year: 18 walks. He plays second base.

I see the resemblance.

Tomorrow: A look at Coloradoís curious decision and any other new developments around the big leagues.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/3/2007 1:48:00 PM

Comments (4)

Ferris Wheel - MLB Over-Under
For entertainment purposes only.

3 units Brewers over 80.5

2 units Indians over 86

2 units Blue Jays under 87

1 unit Padres over 83.5

1 unit Diamondbacks over 78.5

1 unit Red Sox over 90.5

1 unit Yankees under 96.5

1 unit Athletics over 85.5

Posted by david ferris at 4/2/2007 8:00:00 AM

Comments (3)

April Looms Large for Cubs
I was taking a look at the Cubs' schedule for this season a couple days ago and was surprised to see they play 22 of their 26 games in April against NL Central foes, including six games apiece against St. Louis and Milwaukee, who figure to be two of the better teams in the division. Now, while April can never really be a make-or-break month (see the 2006 Minnesota Twins), the Cubs can build a nice cushion early in the season with a strong first month. If they can break out of the gates hot and win 17 games, they'd set themselves up beautifully for the rest of the year. Of course, if they play poorly, they'll be digging themselves into a hole before the calendar turned to May. Either way, the month of April could go a long way to determining the Cubs' success this season.

Posted by Michael Beller at 4/1/2007 12:16:00 PM
Comments (1)

Ferris Wheel: all-profit picks
I think you can make a lot of gains on these guys, though it's all relative to who's at your table. Anyway, some names and comments:

C: Ronny Paulino

1B: Ty Wigginton (nice position grabber)

2B: Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson

SS: Stephen Drew

3B: Mark Teahen (in outfield, still quals here)

OF: Willy Taveras (Pierre without the price)

OF: Nick Markakis

OF: Gary Matthews (stink player; if room hates him, take him for next to nothing)

Util: B.J. Upton

SP: Rich Hill (most of us have to pay up, maybe you don't)

SP: Felix Hernandez (eliminate Santana and he's my Cy pick)

SP: James Shields

SP: Clay Hensley

SP: John Maine

RP: Jorge Julio, Ryan Dempster (see Matthews)

RP: Octavio Dotel (they can win 70-75 games now)

RP: Todd Coffey (nice camp, Hermanson out, Weathers may not stick)

Posted by david ferris at 4/1/2007 10:52:00 AM

Comments (7)

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6/8/2008 - 6/14/2008
6/1/2008 - 6/7/2008
5/25/2008 - 5/31/2008
5/18/2008 - 5/24/2008
5/11/2008 - 5/17/2008
5/4/2008 - 5/10/2008
4/27/2008 - 5/3/2008
4/20/2008 - 4/26/2008
4/13/2008 - 4/19/2008
4/6/2008 - 4/12/2008
3/30/2008 - 4/5/2008
3/23/2008 - 3/29/2008
3/16/2008 - 3/22/2008
3/9/2008 - 3/15/2008
3/2/2008 - 3/8/2008
2/24/2008 - 3/1/2008
2/17/2008 - 2/23/2008
2/10/2008 - 2/16/2008
2/3/2008 - 2/9/2008
1/27/2008 - 2/2/2008
1/20/2008 - 1/26/2008
1/13/2008 - 1/19/2008
1/6/2008 - 1/12/2008
12/30/2007 - 1/5/2008
12/23/2007 - 12/29/2007
12/16/2007 - 12/22/2007
12/9/2007 - 12/15/2007
12/2/2007 - 12/8/2007
11/25/2007 - 12/1/2007
11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006