| The O-Zone: Chris B. Good |
Let’s head to Arizona for the next stop on our Rotten Rookies tour. Today’s topic: Chris Young.
THE DAMAGES: Young hasn’t done much so far. He’s hitting just .200, hasn’t gotten on base very often (.264 OBP) and isn’t hitting for power (.338 SLG).
CAN HE IMPROVE SOON? Yes. I feel quite good about Mr. Young.
Why? Many reasons:
-- Young’s plate discipline hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been OK. Right now he has a 9/5 K/BB in 65 at-bats. That’s not too bad, especially compared to the other rookies we’ve profiled this week. I would like to see a couple more walks, but the strikeouts are fine. Young is making acceptable contact. The lack of K’s also shows Young hasn’t been overmatched. Pitchers aren’t having their way with him.
-- Young isn’t hitting for much power, but he’s bashing a ton of fly balls (0.73 G/F) and plays in a splendid hitter’s park. The skill is there, and the environment is terrific. Expect more dingers very, very soon.
-- Experience is no problem. Young received 466 at-bats in Double-A two years ago, then got 402 at-bats in Triple-A last year. That’s great to see. One problem with some of the other rookies (i.e. Alex Gordon and Troy Tulowitzki) is that they were rushed; they made the jump to the bigs from Double-A, and they might not be ready. Young was able to get the seasoning he needs, and I expect that experience to pay dividends soon.
-- Young battled a groin injury a couple of weeks ago. I don’t know how much that ailment has hurt his production, but it certainly hasn’t helped. He’s feeling better now, though, so expect his swing to improve.
-- His job is secure. Young doesn’t have to look over his shoulder. He’ll be given the chance to improve.
WHAT DOES THE LONG-TERM FUTURE HOLD? While I like Young in the short-term, I really like him long-term. Last year at Triple-A, he flashed plenty of power (21 homers) and speed (17 steals), and he did it while maintaining a strong batting eye (71/52 K/BB). It’s all there.
Benching Young while he’s slumping is obviously wise, but do not give up on him. There’s a lot to like here, and he should be able to get going soon.
Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up our rookie series with a look at Chris Iannetta.
Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/27/2007 10:38:00 AM |
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| The O-Zone: Kouzmanoff's Killing Us |
My NL Rookie of the Year pick was Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Oops.
Anyway, we continue our Rotten Rookies series today with a look at the San Diego third baseman.
THE DAMAGES: Kouzmanoff is hitting .132/.207/.226. He has a 17/4 K/BB. He’s driven in just four runs. Starts don’t get much worse than this.
CAN HE IMPROVE SOON? As with the other rookies I’ve discussed so far, I expect improvement to take awhile. Kouzmanoff’s poor strikeout-to-walk ratio indicates he’s been overmatched; this isn’t a case of a rookie hitting into bad luck early in the year. Kouzmanoff has a ways to go just to become adequate, never mind good.
There are other things working against him, too. Lack of experience at the upper levels of the minors -- just 102 at-bats at Triple-A -- hurts him. So does his home ballpark. Kouzmanoff isn’t hitting anywhere right now, but if and when he gets to a point where he’s making good contact and driving the ball, Petco won’t do him any favors.
But even if Kouzmanoff is on the brink of a breakout, he might not get the chance. Russ Branyan has seen plenty of time at third base lately. Bud Black keeps insisting Kouzmanoff’s the guy at third, but one has to wonder how long this can continue. San Diego hopes to contend, so how long can they stick with Kouzmanoff at third if he isn’t producing?
WHAT DOES THE LONG-TERM FUTURE HOLD? Kouzmanoff has shown fine plate discipline and power in the minors. Last year, he hit 22 homers and boasted a 46/33 K/BB between Double-A and Triple-A. The skill is there. He’ll be fine in the long run.
I don’t think I’d drop Kouzmanoff yet in a seasonal league, but you better have a Plan B. If he doesn’t start hitting very soon, he could easily wind up playing less than he already is -- and he’ll be next to worthless if that happens.
Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/26/2007 2:31:00 PM |
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| Luck is No Gameplan |
| Jarrod Washburn's comments after his three-hit shoutout Wednesday explain exactly why the Mariners roster construction this offseason was so thoughtless. In his three previous starts, Washburn averaged 104 pitches in six innings per start. So what was the difference in this one?
"The difference between this kind of game and one where I get hit? Nothing. Seriously, I make teams put the ball in play. Tonight, they did it where my team could make the plays. Sometimes, they hit balls where plays can’t be made."
What Washburn is saying is that plain old luck plays a huge part when a ball is put into play. Now, a non-strikeout pitcher definitely helps himself out by getting ahead in the count (which Washburn did Wednesday). Forced to throw a 2-0 strike with a mediocre fastball is a recipe for disaster. But all in all, a contact pitcher really has to rely on a good amount of luck each time out.
Which is all to say, when the Mariners re-vamped their pitching staff this offseason and ended up with four contact pitchers in the rotation, they guaranteed that four of every five games basically will come down to crossing their fingers.
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 4/26/2007 7:47:00 AM |
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| Gee, ya think |
Mike Pelfrey's quote after giving up six runs in three innings in the Mets' game Wednesday "I just kept throwing fastballs. They kept hitting it and I kept throwing it. Maybe I'm too stubborn." No, really, ya think(sarcasm dripping).
Posted by Jan at 4/25/2007 3:26:00 PM |
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| The O-Zone: Troy Tulowitzki |
For part two of our struggling rookie series, let’s shift our attention to Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki.
THE DAMAGES: It’s been brutal so far. Tulowitzki is hitting .190/.282/.254, and when your slugging percentage is lower than your OBP, you’ve got problems. He also has yet to homer.
CAN HE IMPROVE SOON? My hopes aren’t high. Three big concerns …
First, Tulowitzki has shown absolutely zilch power. His ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is 3.13. That’s OK if you’re Ichiro or Luis Castillo, not so hot if you’re a power-hitting shortstop. We can’t expect more homers from Tulowitzki until he starts driving the ball with authority and regularity. Right now he appears far from being able to do that.
Secondly, the strikeouts are a worry. Tulowitzki has whiffed 17 times in 63 at-bats. At that rate, he would fan 135 times if he received 500 at-bats. That’s much too many, especially for a guy who isn’t driving the ball.
Finally, I think it will take Tulowitzki awhile to get going due to his inexperience. He’s never played at Triple-A, and he’s still just 22 years old. As with Alex Gordon (whom we discussed yesterday), Tulowitzki’s big-league learning curve is steeper than it is for hitters who have faced Triple-A pitching.
WHAT DOES THE LONG-TERM FUTURE HOLD? It’s still very bright. Tulowitzki was very good at Double-A last year, showing an adequate batting eye (71/46 K/BB) and plenty of power (13 homers, 34 doubles). He’s got the skill. It’s just going to take awhile before that skill results in big-league success.
Obviously, you keep Tulowitzki in a keeper league. In a yearly league I’d keep him as well, but I would move him to my bench. His production isn’t even replacement level now, and I’m sure you can find a more adequate shortstop to fill in until Tulowitzki gets going.
As with Gordon, a big second half wouldn’t surprise me. But Tulowitzki has a long way to go.
Tomorrow: San Diego’s Kevin Kouzmanoff.
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Keeper league alert: Dallas Braden may not be the household name other prospects are, but make sure you put a claim in on him … and not just because he pitched well last night. The 23-year-old struck out 135 batters in 140 innings at Single-A and Double-A in 2005, so he’s got pretty good stuff.
Short-term, though, Braden isn’t someone I’d plug into my rotation (unless you’re in a very deep league). Braden missed most of last year due to a shoulder injury and has precious little experience in the upper minors, so he’s going to suffer some growing pains for however long he stays in Oakland’s rotation. He doesn’t need to be on your active roster while he gets the seasoning he needs.
Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/25/2007 12:41:00 PM |
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| Why I hate watching NL baseball |
| I know I'll probably get it from all you "purists" out there, but here's one reason I hate watching NL baseball. As I currently am watching the Rockies/Mets score in bottom of the 12th inning, with a tie ballgame, the game on the line, the Rockies' lineup is:
Steve Finley
Jamey Carroll
[Pitcher Spot]
Todd Helton
Matt Holliday
Clint Barmes
Willy Taveras
Troy Tulowitzki
Chris Iannetta
Out are Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, and Yorvit Torrealba, the latter of which has two of the Rockies' six hits up to this point.
I'm sure you'll say: "But it's good strategy to take out Atkins, one of their best hitters, because he won't come up to bat for another couple innings." This is why NL extra inning games go on forever. I'm located in D.C., and I caught on TV two Nationals games within a three-day span last week where they went 13 and 14 innings against the Phillies and Marlins, respectively. The Marlins' lineup at the end of the game:
Hanley Ramirez
[Pitcher spot]
Mike Jacobs
Jason Wood
Joe Borchard
Aaron Boone
Miguel Olivo
Alfredo Amezaga
Cody Ross
I know the conventional notions of batting order placement are drastically changed in extra innings, but still, when the Marlins get to the 2-3-4 spots, wouldn't it be better to see Uggla-Jacobs-Willingham rather than Treanor-Jacobs-Wood? When the game is on the line, when it's supposed to be its most intense in the late innings of a tie or one-run game, wouldn't you like to see Jonathan Papelbon have to face Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Alex Rodriguez rather than some schmo like Miguel Cairo? Oh wait, he did this past Sunday. And in the bottom of the ninth inning of a tie game, wouldn't it be exciting to see Todd Jones face the starting 2-3-4 batters of the Angels' starting lineup, Orlando Cabrera, Vlad Guerrero, and Garret Anderson? That happened tonight. It's bad enough watching the Yankees sub Jason Giambi out for a pinch runner in the top of the eighth inning with the team up four runs, like they did on Saturday, only to see Boston come back and them having to bat Kevin Thompson down a run in the bottom of the ninth in the No. 5 spot. In the National league, this atrocity happens on a daily basis.
If strategy means "substituting weak-hitting utility infielders for our better batters so we can pinch hit for our pitcher with another weak-hitting bench player who will have a 5-to-10% better chance of getting a hit," then it ain't for me.
Posted by Bret Cohen at 4/24/2007 7:54:00 PM |
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| The O-Zone: Not-so-awesome Alex |
Many of us are thinking about changing our Rookie of the Year picks. Others are questioning their own sanity for drafting some of these rooks in Roto. A lot of the supposed big rookie bats -- Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chris Young, Chris Iannetta -- have been close to worthless so far.
What’s the deal with these guys? This week, we’ll answer that question right here in The O-Zone. Each day, we’re going to look at one of those aforementioned rookies and try to predict his short- and long-term future.
Today, let’s begin with Alex Gordon.
THE DAMAGES: Gordon is hitting just .133/.224/.283. He has struck out a whopping 21 times and drawn a mere three walks. I haven’t seen anyone this overmatched since Jessica Simpson took AP Calculus.
CAN HE IMPROVE SOON? Well, there are a couple of good signs here. Gordon has a 0.78 G/F, so he’s driving the ball pretty well (when he makes contact, anyway). He isn’t hitting dinky little grounders to shortstop every time up. In addition, Gordon’s job seems secure, so at least he’s going to get the chance to get better at the big-league level. It doesn’t appear Gordon’s going to be riding the pine or demoted anytime soon.
Despite that, I think it’s going to be awhile before Gordon really gets mashing. A 21/3 K/BB proves this guy has a long way to go. Plus we need to remember that Gordon bypassed Triple-A and went straight to the majors from Double-A. Thus, his learning curve in the majors is going to be much steeper than it would be for a hitter who got exposure to Triple-A pitching.
WHAT DOES THE LONG-TERM FUTURE HOLD? Once Gordon starts raking, he won’t stop. Plate patience, power, speed … Gordon has it all. It’s just going to take awhile for those skills to show up in the bigs.
If you own Gordon, I’d get him to the bench immediately. But I wouldn’t drop him in a seasonal league -- he will start hitting eventually. A big second half wouldn’t surprise me.
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Randy Johnson returns tonight. Remember that the Big Unit is no longer the dominant force he once was, and keep in mind also that he’s old and hurting. If he pitches well in his first few outings, move him -- he doesn’t have the skill or endurance to succeed from now through September.
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Gary Sheffield getting Sunday off was somewhat of a big story. Well, it isn’t really that big of a deal, but it was made out to be -- ESPN.com had it in the headlines section for a couple of days.
With that “news” fresh in people’s minds, maybe you can buy low now on Sheffield. I’d do so in a heartbeat. Sheff’s 15/14 K/BB is excellent, and he’s hitting fly balls at his usual rate. The patience and power are still both there.
Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/24/2007 2:21:00 PM |
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| Will He Stay or Will He Go? |
| The Seattle Times Mariners beat writer speculates that Mike Hargrove might not finish the week before he's fired. The Mariners have lost six in a row; if the losing streak hits double digits it could be the guillotine for Hargrove, or so he reasons.
On the other hand, however, the same writer also says that word around the campfire is Hargrove has already been given a contract extension for 2008. (This comes from a source in another organization's front office.)
It would actually be rather Mariner-esque to give Hargrove an extension and then boot him anyway. They've already wasted $111 million on this year, what's a few more scoots?
The thing that grinds on me, though, is what's Hargrove done in three weeks of this season that has proven he is any worse a manager than when last season ended? All that giving him "one last chance" has done is doom this season before it even started.
Posted by Jason Thornbury at 4/23/2007 11:48:00 AM |
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