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The O-Zone: Westbrook, Lind and No. 42

Today’s theme is … well, nothing. Random observations and such on this April Saturday: * When I first read about the contract the Indians gave Jake Westbrook -- three years, $33 million -- I didn’t like it. I’m not a big Westbrook guy. His 4.64 K/9 and 109/55 K/BB last year make me shudder. Pitchers with such poor strikeout rates always scare me, no matter how many ground balls they induce. But the more I think about the contract, the more I like it. Three years at $11 million per isn’t that much these days. Heck, Gil Meche got five years at $11 million a season, and he’s been far more inconsistent than Westbrook over his career. Vicente Padilla also signed a three-year, $33 million deal during the offseason, despite a poor track record healthwise. I guess it’s all relative. $33 million seems a bit much for Westbrook, but it isn’t when you compare it to what everyone else is making. * I actually took a chance on Carl Pavano in a couple of my leagues. Hey, he was cheap, and I figured if he could stay healthy, he’d win plenty of games with the vaunted Yankees lineup behind him. Now he’s battling tightness in his forearm, and today’s start was pushed back to Tuesday. Something tells me this isn’t going to end well. But I’m not going to complain, because I’m getting what I deserve. * Adam Lind got The Call yesterday, as Toronto promoted him after putting Reed Johnson (back) on the DL. By all means, pick up Lind -- I just did in an AL-only league -- but keep your expectations in check for now. He’s not a fantasy savior … at least not yet. The reason for my semi-pessimism is his batting eye. Last year at Double-A, Lind had a 87/25 K/BB in 348 at-bats. Contact was an issue, and he didn’t boast the walk rate you want to see a young power hitter possess. He could struggle in the bigs if he can’t improve here. I know some will point to Lind’s batting eye at Triple-A last year (18/23 K/BB) as a sign he improved, but I don’t think that’s the case. Lind saw just 109 at-bats at that level last year; he did his damage and left before pitchers got to face him a second or third time. On the other hand, Lind received 348 at-bats at Double-A. His skills at that level are far more meaningful. * Maybe C.C. Sabathia and Torii Hunter are right about the Jackie Robinson commemoration and celebration being watered down. But even if they’re correct, I’m disappointed in them. Our focus now should be on Jackie Robinson. That’s it. We should be celebrating the man and all he accomplished. We should be hearing stories of his great courage. We should be showing our gratitude to a brave man who made the baseball world -- and the whole world -- a better place. The Sabathia/Hunter story takes away from that. It’s too bad. I wish they had spoken after the festivities -- that’s the time to discuss such things. By talking about them beforehand, all they’ve done is deflect attention from the great No. 42. And that’s sad. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/13/2007 10:37:00 PM

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The O-Zone: Deep Thoughts

I’m in a couple of deep leagues, so I’m always looking around and digging deep for potential value. Here are a few players who have caught my eye recently. JOSH RABE, Twins Rabe displayed a solid batting eye (37/35 K/BB) last year at Triple-A, so he might be able to hit for a good average in the big leagues. He’s also 28 years old, so he’s at his peak. How good that peak will be remains to be seen, but if he’s ever going to make a major-league impact, now’s the time. More important for now, Rabe could earn significant at-bats. Jeff Cirillo and Rondell White are hurt. Playing time can be had at left field or DH. Rabe’s no superstar, but he’s certainly worth a flier in a deep league. ANTONIO ALFONSECA, Phillies I thought Alfonseca’s days of fantasy usefulness were long over. And they might be. But the fact remains that Alfonseca is pitching well (2.08 ERA through four games) and is on the verge of nailing down the eighth-inning job in Philly. That puts him one step away from closing games -- and given Tom Gordon’s injury history, it’s no stretch to think Alfonseca could see some save opportunities. I know Alfonseca has a crummy 2/3 K/BB. I don’t think he’ll keep pitching well. However, if you’re one of those fantasy players who punts saves at the draft table and tries to pick them up during the season, you need to be aware that Alfonseca could be a target. TODD LINDEN, Giants Nothing special here, but Linden does possess some interesting skill. He had a 44/29 K/BB at Triple-A last year, so his batting eye is OK. He also smacked 30 homers at Triple-A in 2005, proving he’s got some pop. Combine that ability with his age -- 26 years old -- and you have something of a breakout candidate. Linden doesn’t have a ton of upside, but that doesn’t make him useless. Expect Linden to rack up plenty of at-bats this year. He’s already spelling the struggling Randy Winn in right field, and with injury-prone Barry Bonds and Dave Roberts occupying the other two spots in the San Francisco outfield, there should be no shortage of opportunity for Linden. DEVERN HANSACK, Red Sox Hansack has a 20/3 K/BB in 10 2/3 innings at Triple-A. Boston’s fifth starter is shaky Julian Tavarez, and the bullpen has more holes than a mole-infested lawn. Hansack could get a chance. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/13/2007 10:31:00 AM

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Hunter & Sabathia: Players "Watering Down" Robinson Celebration

This preseason, Reds outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. received special permission from Jackie Robinson's widow Rachel to honor the 60th anniversary of Robinson integrating the major leagues by wearing Robinson's No. 42 on Sunday, April 15. This has ballooned into more than 150 players saying they'll wear No. 42, according to ESPN.com. Five entire teams -- the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros -- will field rosters of 42s for the day. Instead of being elated at the outpouring of support from players wanting to honor what Robinson did for the game, Twins outfielder Torii Hunter, one of the first players who was to wear No. 42, said to USA Today (listed in the same report): "This is supposed to be an honor, and just a handful of guys wearing the number. Now you've got entire teams doing it. I think we're killing the meaning. It should be special wearing Jackie's number, not just because it looks cool." "It kind of waters it down," Indians pitcher C.C. Sabathia also told USA Today. "I could see the Dodgers since that was his team, but not everyone else." How pretentious is that? This is supposed to be a joyous day, where all players, whatever their color or nationality, can recognize the contribution that Robinson made to the entire game of baseball. While this is of a greater and more historically significant magnitude, the large-scale symbolism is akin to when more than 50 players used pink bats as part of a week-long program to benefit breast cancer research. Was that a disaster? Did that water down the message, or did it strengthen it? Griffey said it best, reacting to the amount of players wearing No. 42, saying: "I didn't know so many guys planned to wear the number. I sure wasn't expecting whole teams to wear it. But I'm not going to look at it as a negative. This is a tribute for what the man has done, a day to celebrate." Why can't Hunter and Sabathia be happy that Robinson's accomplishments are being celebrated by the rest of the league? Certainly, he opened the door for not only African American players, but set the table for the influx of Latin players that commenced a decade or so later. Not only that, but breaking the color barrier is a great lesson to teach all baseball fans, whatever their race or ethnicity. Who, in their minds, should be allowed to wear the number? Only one player per team? Only African American players? Only the best African American player per team? I wonder Sabathia is upset at his teammates who have elected to honor Robinson in this manner as well. At least on the Indians, both Grady Sizemore and Josh Barfield will wear No. 42, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "It means a lot to me," said Sizemore to the Plain Dealer. "The Indians asked me if I wanted to do it and I said yes. It's a way of paying tribute to him. It shows respect for what he did and I'm going to wear it with pride." "It's a great tribute to a great man," Barfield said to MLB.com. "It's cool to see everyone around the league wearing it. I'll be honored to wear it." In fact, Sabathia isn't scheduled to pitch that day, so he actually deferred to Barfield -- the only African American starting position player on the Indians -- to wear the number as a starter, according to the MLB.com report. In addition, the Indians are petitioning Major League Baseball for the right to pay a similar tribute to Larry Doby, who became the first African American player in the American League when he suited up for Cleveland on July 5, 1947, by wearing Doby's No. 14 on the anniversary of the event. I think that such tributes -- as long as they don't occur too often or an extended period of time, to preserve the meaning -- are very powerful and help teach all the fans of major league baseball (especially the younger ones who weren't around) the power of perseverance in the face of hatred and bigotry. In addition, if baseball and other professional sports can use the stage they are on and their popularity to help advance other worthwhile causes (like the breast cancer research funding), I think it's worth it to have as many players participate as possible. I only wish that Hunter and Sabathia could recognize that having more players honor Robinson can only increase the power of his legacy, not "water down" the tribute. Posted by Bret Cohen at 4/12/2007 3:49:00 PM

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Roto Rebel: Sell King Felix Now!

Yes now. Today. Sell, sell, sell! Even trade for Alex Rodriguez? Done. Straight up for Albert Pujols? Well, duh. Even exchange for Chris Carpenter? Uh, NO! Honestly, will Felix Hernandez ever have more value on the trade market than he does TODAY?! Possible? Yes. Probable? Not highly. Start up the emails and phone calls to your fellow owners and see how high they're willing to go. Now don't get me wrong...do not unload King Felix for just any deal. What did you have him valued at going into your auction? $24? $27? Sure he may earn $30+ in value, but if you can get a more proven upper echelon player - do it. Today. Posted by Randy Hale at 4/12/2007 10:07:00 AM

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Felix is a Beast

Hope you all caught Felix Hernandez's game last night. If not, I'm sure it'll be on ESPN Classic soon as it was definitely an Instant Classic. To say he dominated is way too trite. Forget the one hit allowed for a second. The Red Sox got just three balls out of the infield. Other than the two he walked, Felix went to three balls on only two batters. He allowed only four balls to be hit in the air, one of which was an infield pop-up, another a weak line drive. Not one runner advanced past first base. I was in the Kingdome for one of Randy Johnson's 19-strikeout games, which was amazing fun. But this was different. The Unit overwhelmed batters. Felix didn't just blow it past batters, he pitched with a crafty precision, which left the Red Sox helplessly baffled. The 99-mph fastball followed by a devastating curve or his 92-mph slider with a mid-80s changeup mixed in. It was unreal. For those scoring at home, that's 2 starts, 17 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 4 BB, 18 K, 29 GB, 4 FB, 1 XBH, 3 runners to reach second (one on a passed ball), 1 runner to reach third, 4 batters faced over the minimum, a 0.75 BAA, 6 three-ball counts. And he's 21. Posted by Jason Thornbury at 4/12/2007 9:53:00 AM

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The O-Zone: Snow way!

We’re going to get six inches of wet, heavy snow tomorrow in New Hampshire. That means I’m going to lose power -- always do. And with Public Service of New Hampshire (or as I call them, Public Service of No Hurry) on the case, there’s no telling when I’ll get it back. Thus, I’m posting tomorrow’s O-Zone today. Then I’m going to find my flashlight. NICE JOB, SAN DIEGO I’m always in favor of locking up young stars to long-term, economical deals. No exception this time, as I love San Diego’s signing of Chris Young to a four-year, $14.5 million extension. There’s so much to like here: * Young’s strikeout rate the last three years: 6.69, 7.49, 8.23. He’s in a good place now, and I love seeing a young pitcher improve in this area. * Young is not a Petco phenom. He actually was much better on the road last year (2.41 ERA away, 4.61 at home). If anyone thinks Young is just another lucky Padres pitcher who owes all his success to Petco, you’re wrong. He’s a genuinely good pitcher and deserves the money. * He hasn’t been overworked. Young threw 164 2/3 innings in 2005, 179 1/3 last year. Very reasonable. I consider Young low-risk for burnout or injury, so locking him up for several seasons is a good bet. All that being said, Young has some warts. He gave up 28 home runs last year; I’d like to see him lower that total. He also walked 69 in 179 1/3 innings, a mark he could definitely improve on. But he’s still a very good pitcher, and the price is definitely right. Bravo, Kevin Towers. CLOSER CAROUSEL Two dark-horse closer candidates to keep an eye on: JOAKIM SORIA: The Rule V pick has gotten off to a great start, striking out five in five innings. He already has a save and two holds, too. With Octavio Dotel out and David Riske only a so-so option as a replacement, perhaps Soria will receive some save chances. KEVIN CORREIA: Correia gives up a ton of fly balls (0.80 career G/F), so he’s always a threat to blow a game in spectacular fashion. But Correia also has decent stuff -- 7.36 K/9 last year, 5 K’s in 5 IP so far this year -- and opportunity could come a-knockin’ in San Francisco. We all know how shaky an option Armando Benitez is right now, and “closer of the future” Brian Wilson is down at Triple-A (and rightfully so). Correia could get a shot. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/11/2007 2:04:00 PM

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The O-Zone: Adios, Julio

O-Zone Intelligence has intercepted an e-mail from Marlins GM Larry Beinfest. It reads: “Dear Josh Byrnes, Geesh, I was only kidding about that Jorge Julio trade! You take things way too seriously. Simple misunderstanding, that’s all. I’m sending Julio back to Arizona where he belongs. If you could get Yusmeiro Petit on the next flight to Miami, that’d be great. Thanks!” Or so Beinfest wishes. Julio has been a train wreck. I predicted doom and gloom for him recently in The O-Zone, but I didn’t think it would be this bad: 10 hits and 0/6 K/BB in 3 2/3 innings; 14.73 ERA; 4.36 WHIP. I know it’s early and Julio could right himself, but he’s quickly running out of time to do so -- if he hasn’t run out already. If Julio gets demoted, who will take his place? Here’s a quick look at the four most likely replacements, with the most likely replacement listed first (and then working our way down from there). HENRY OWENS PROS: Owens got the save on Monday, so he might be next in line to be Florida’s closer. There’s little doubt his stuff is stellar; just look at his 74/10 K/BB in 40 innings at Double-A last year. Doesn’t get much better than that. CONS: Owens was 27 when he dominated Double-A last year. His performance isn’t as impressive when you take that into account. He also has no experience at Triple-A and limited time in the bigs, so he’s still getting his feet wet. TAYLOR TANKERSLEY PROS: Tankersley possesses the dominance one needs to be a good closer. Last year, he fanned 46 batters in 41 innings at the big-league level. Yup, he’s got it. CONS: Tankersley is wild; he walked 26 in 41 innings last year, obviously way too many for a ninth-inning arm. He’s also getting over a shoulder injury, so we have to question his health for a while. MATT LINDSTROM PROS: Lindstrom had a strong 54/14 K/BB in 40 Double-A innings last year. CONS: Like Owens, he was old when he did it. A 26-year-old reliever at Double-A should have some success. Lindstrom also has no time at Triple-A or the big leagues (until now), so he’s still inexperienced at the higher levels and therefore risky. LEE GARDNER PROS: Experience. Gardner has saved 130 games in the minors. CONS: There’s nothing spectacular about this guy. Last year, the then-31-year-old had a 46/17 K/BB in 62 innings at Triple-A. Nothing wrong with that, I guess, but it certainly isn’t anything to be excited about. Gardner doesn’t have close to the upside the others possess. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/11/2007 1:00:00 PM

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The O-Zone: Lidge and Wheeler

Another closer change is already in the books. Brad Lidge is out, and Dan Wheeler is in. Let’s answer some questions that arise from this development. DOES WHEELER HAVE THE SKILLS TO CLOSE? Yes. Definitely. Over the last two seasons, Wheeler has put up a 137/43 K/BB in 144 2/3 innings. He strikes out a batter per inning, and he doesn’t hand out too many passes. Wheeler also has given up only 12 homers over that time, so he isn’t very prone to the long ball (although his 0.79 G/F over that period indicates a home-run spike is possible). Wheeler isn’t one of those out-of-this-world closers who’s going to have a 1.50 ERA at the end of the year, but he’s certainly got the ability to do the job well. WHAT’S WRONG WITH BRAD LIDGE? Well, we know what the problem was last year. While Lidge kept his strikeout rate in the stratosphere (12.48 K/9), his walk rate spiked (36 BB in 75 IP) and he got taken deep a whopping 10 times. The K rate proves Lidge had the stuff, but those walk and home run totals indicate he couldn’t harness it. As for this year, what can we say? Lidge has been horrid, but it’s been just 1 2/3 innings. Granted, those 1 2/3 innings are very worrisome given Lidge’s struggles last year. It’s still an incredibly small sample, though, and deriving any meaningful analysis out of it is nearly impossible. I haven’t heard much about this, but I wonder if workload is an issue here. Lidge has pitched in an average of 76.5 games over the last four years, and that doesn’t include all the playoff work he saw in 2004 and 2005. Phil Garner rode him awfully hard, as you probably recall. WILL LIDGE GET THE JOB BACK? There’s no way of knowing if Lidge will pitch well enough to become the closer again. There’s kind of an inner battle here with Lidge: strikeout ability vs. control/gopheritis/workload. Which side wins is anybody’s guess. However, there hasn’t been any mention of this closer change being permanent. Sometimes a closer gets demoted, and that’s it. He’s through. (Look at Francisco Cordero in Texas last year.) But it appears Lidge will at least have the opportunity to win the job back. Thus, he retains some value. WHAT SHOULD I DO IN FANTASY? By all means, go after Wheeler if he’s available, but don’t break the bank to do so. He’s a good pitcher and will be a good closer, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have the job for long. As for Lidge, get him to your bench, but certainly don’t drop him. He can right this ship and become the closer again. You should never drop anyone after 1 2/3 innings, anyway. Way too small a sample. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 4/10/2007 2:14:00 PM

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9/28/2008 - 10/4/2008
9/21/2008 - 9/27/2008
9/14/2008 - 9/20/2008
9/7/2008 - 9/13/2008
8/31/2008 - 9/6/2008
8/24/2008 - 8/30/2008
8/17/2008 - 8/23/2008
8/10/2008 - 8/16/2008
8/3/2008 - 8/9/2008
7/27/2008 - 8/2/2008
7/20/2008 - 7/26/2008
7/13/2008 - 7/19/2008
7/6/2008 - 7/12/2008
6/29/2008 - 7/5/2008
6/22/2008 - 6/28/2008
6/15/2008 - 6/21/2008
6/8/2008 - 6/14/2008
6/1/2008 - 6/7/2008
5/25/2008 - 5/31/2008
5/18/2008 - 5/24/2008
5/11/2008 - 5/17/2008
5/4/2008 - 5/10/2008
4/27/2008 - 5/3/2008
4/20/2008 - 4/26/2008
4/13/2008 - 4/19/2008
4/6/2008 - 4/12/2008
3/30/2008 - 4/5/2008
3/23/2008 - 3/29/2008
3/16/2008 - 3/22/2008
3/9/2008 - 3/15/2008
3/2/2008 - 3/8/2008
2/24/2008 - 3/1/2008
2/17/2008 - 2/23/2008
2/10/2008 - 2/16/2008
2/3/2008 - 2/9/2008
1/27/2008 - 2/2/2008
1/20/2008 - 1/26/2008
1/13/2008 - 1/19/2008
1/6/2008 - 1/12/2008
12/30/2007 - 1/5/2008
12/23/2007 - 12/29/2007
12/16/2007 - 12/22/2007
12/9/2007 - 12/15/2007
12/2/2007 - 12/8/2007
11/25/2007 - 12/1/2007
11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006