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Mr. Rogers Neighborhood

Minor leaguer Mark Rogers is currently on pace to do something that I find rather bizarre. Rogers currently is the most unhittable and the most hittable pitcher in the Florida State League (high Single-A). First, some background on Rogers. He was the fifth overall selection in the 2004 MLB draft to the Milwaukee Brewers. He was the first high school pitcher taken in the draft, just before Jeremy Sowers and Homer Bailey. By all accounts, Rogers throws consistently 95+ MPH and has been clocked at 100 MPH in the minors. The problem is that he doesn't always know where the ball is going. His terrible command isn't even what's intriguing to me at this point. What's piqued my interest is that he leads all starting pitchers in the FSL with a 1.44 K/IP rate and also leads the league in H/IP with a 1.31 rate. What I can't figure out is how a pitcher can lead the league in strikeout rate, which would seem to indicate that he's the hardest pitcher to make contact on, and still be the easiest pitcher to get a hit off of in the entire league? What I found is that he also leads the league in another category (besides his awful 0.76 BB/IP, which also leads the league). It turns out that of the balls put into play against Rogers, 46% of them become hits. His 46% is far and away tops in the league for starting pitchers and is well above the current league average of 31%. It's also well above his rate from last season, which was 31%. I haven't seen Rogers pitch, so I'm not sure what's going on this year. I'm assuming that his high hit rate has a lot to do with bad luck, especially since so many batters fail to make contact against him. It also means that he's probably pitched better than his 7.04 ERA would indicate, although still not anything to get excited about because of all of those walks allowed. One thing I can't find is another pitcher similar to Rogers, another pitcher who led his league in K/IP, BB/IP and H/IP. Are there any other pitchers out there comparable to him? Posted by Herb Ilk at 5/30/2006 12:30:00 PM

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Do Managers Matter? Ask Mike Hargrove

Liss and I were gabbing the other day in the office about just how much a manager matters (Liss is in the "very little" camp, while I have a more nuanced view). Well, here's Exhibit A why a manager's impact is not small: Mike Hargrove on Sunday. It's hard to recall a worst-managed game. Seriously. No hyperbole intended. Hargrove didn't lose the game (the player's still play), but he did nothing to put the Mariners in a position to win, which is what the manager is supposed to do. Consider: 1. After Betancourt doubled to lead off the third, Hargrove called on Ichiro to bunt. Ichiro entered the game hitting .316 and singled in his first at bat. Betancourt is already in scoring position and is speedy enough to score on an Ichiro hit. Plus, Jose Lopez, who homered in his first at-bat, was due up after Ichiro with Raul Ibanez to follow. Ichiro popped out on his bunt attempt. Oh, and it's the third inning. 2. Fifth inning no outs, Ichiro at first, Betancourt at second, Lopez gets the bunt sign this time, sacrificing the runners over. Yes, this is the same Lopez who homered in his first at-bat and who leads the team in RBI (38 at that point). Two on, nobody out, your best run producer at the plate, and you bunt him? With a runner already in scoring position? In the fifth inning? 3. Lopez up With one out in the seventh inning of a 3-3 tie after Ichiro triples. A pretty good spot for the team's RBI leader, right? Hargrove calls for a squeeze bunt, which Lopez pops into a double play. Inning over. Yes, this is the same Lopez who has the highest slugging percentage on the team and second-highest batting average. 4. 10th inning, Ichiro on first, no outs, another Lopez bunt. He couldn't get it down, though, and then swung away and singled to center (imagine that). I get wanting to the move the go-ahead runner into scoring position, but you don't take the bat out of the hands of your best hitter in a tie game. And this doesn't even mention the numerous base-running blunders (again no hyperbole ... there's been a TON) brought on by Hargrove's "aggressive" approach this season. Posted by Jason Thornbury at 5/29/2006 5:17:00 PM

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Who Cares About Bonds?

The problem with the steroid contoversy and the current home run era of which it's a part is that it makes me not care much about whether Bonds passes Ruth or Aaron or not. The 60 home run seasons by Sosa, the 70 ones by Bonds and McGwire - it's all just a bunch of numbers now without any real significance - the way 61 was significant or 714 or 755 were significant. For something to have value, it's usually needs to be in scarce supply. $100 bills wouldn't have value if the government printed 10 million new ones a day. The baseball card industry fell apart when the companies overprinted them, and now the home run is losing value as MLB permits conditions that make it too common. The Sosa-McGwire HR chase brought interest to the game in the short term and perhaps helped it recover from the 1994 strike, but in the end, I think it's going to be a big net loss. Baseball printed too many home runs, and now the currency is devalued. Seeing a player chase Ruth or Aaron should be a hugely compelling story, and now I couldn't care less. Andruw Jones could finish with 600-700 HRs, ARod might have 800. Pujols could have 700-800 as well. A lot of current major leaguers - Thome, Jones, ARod, Pujols, Delgado, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez (even Shawn Green and Chipper Jones) should wind up with more than 500 - which was once a significant number and an exclusive club. Now it means very little. If Rafael Palmeiro can hit more home runs than Reggie Jackson and Mike Schmidt, then who cares anymore? If people become indifferent to baseball's big records and statistics, it's going to be a big blow because the stats are so heavily intertwined with the game. I think the league should do whatever it did after the offensive explosion of the early 1930s and get home runs closer in line with historical averages. Maybe they could deaden the ball a little bit or raise the mounds again. Whatever they need to do. Because you don't want the single-season HR record broken every five years. Every 25-30 years is a good pace to let the mark become important first and the chase become meaningful. And the record-breaker to become legendary. And you definitely don't want two guys breaking it in the same year a la McGwire-Sosa (sure it made for dramatic TV), but that really cheapens the accomplishment. Posted by Chris Liss at 5/29/2006 10:45:00 AM

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