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The O-Zone: B.J., Kei and Chipper

Todayís theme is no theme. A few random observations Ö

* B.J. Upton has looked like a fantasy superduperstar in the early going. Heís hitting .358 with seven home runs and five steals -- great numbers for just about anyone, never mind a 22-year-old second baseman.

However, like many a young Devil Ray, Upton has plate-discipline issues. His 38/9 K/BB just isnít going to cut it.

Iíd expect a correction here shortly. That doesnít mean Upton is going to become useless, but a slump -- perhaps an extended one -- is likely. That average is sure to tumble, and his power output could decline as well.

* What a brutal big-league stint for Kei Igawa, huh? A 7.63 ERA and eight home runs in 30 2/3 innings were not what the Yankees expected when they shelled out $26 million just to talk to the guy.

Although he pitched horribly and is on a remedial trip to the minors, I think Iíd try to buy low and stash Igawa on my reserve list for a while. Igawa still has a chance to be a good pitcher. He was terrific in Japan, and if he can solve his problems during his minor-league voyage, he could end up being a decent fantasy pitcher in the second half.

You canít give up on anyone after 30 2/3 innings. Give Igawa a chance.

* Speaking of chances, youíre taking a big one if you donít deal Chipper Jones now. Larry has started the season hotter than a habanero: .291 average, 10 home runs, 1.026 OPS. Problem is, he canít stay healthy. Heís suffered a litany of injuries in recent years, and already this season heís battled/battling a strained oblique, strained quad and sore feet.

Chipper is a ticking time bomb. Deal him now and get a lot for him before he hits the DL.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 5/11/2007 10:29:00 AM

Comments (1)

The O-Zone: So You Had a Bad Day

Itís been a rough 24 hours. First, I looked at how my AL-only team did last night, and I saw that Erik Bedard and James Shields combined for 16 shutout innings Ö and neither got me a win. Then I find out today that B.J. Ryan -- whom I own in two leagues -- is out for the year. Bad back my you-know-what, J.P.

Anyway, a few things Ö

* After Jason Marquisí three-hit shutout last night, there was a headline, photo caption and write-up on another Web site that made the Cubs righty sound like Sandy Koufax Jr. Letís not get ahead of ourselves, though. Yes, Marquis has been terrific: 5-1, 1.70. And yes, he is worthy of praise. But thereís no way heís going to continue pitching this well. Iíd sell high in a heartbeat.

My main worry about Marquis is his 24/13 K/BB in 47 2/3 innings. The walk total is OK (especially for him), but 24 Kís in 47 2/3 innings -- a 4.53 K/9 -- just isnít sufficient. Marquis doesnít miss enough bats to keep pitching like a Cy Young winner. He yields too many batted balls, and once those batted balls start dropping in and finding holes, heís going to be in trouble.

* If youíre looking for a buy-low catcher, how about Josh Bard? Although heís been horrible this month (.130 average, .390 OPS), his K/BB for May is a fine 3/4. Overall, heís hitting more fly balls this year, too -- could translate to increased power down the line. Donít expect Johnny Bench numbers here, but Bard should provide good bang for the buck if you can get him.

* Two closer notes:

1. Jorge Julio is apparently going to get his closerís job back in Florida. Whether he can pitch well enough to keep it remains to be seen, but if Julio was dropped in your league after his horrid start, you might want to pick him up if you need saves.

As for current Marlins closer Henry Owens, you might want to sell high while heís still the closer. Of course, keeping him might be wise as well, since Julio could struggle and Owens could eventually get the job back. Either action seems prudent right now.

2. Tony Pena got a save on Tuesday with Jose Valverde unavailable, so one has to figure that Pena would be The Man should something happen to Valverde. Itís worth noting, however, that although Pena throws gas, heís striking out just 4.66 batters per nine innings. Iíve read a few reports on other sites hyping this guy, but Iím skeptical whether heíd be an effective stopper right now.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 5/10/2007 1:47:00 PM

Comments (3)

The O-Zone: The Rocket Returns

Even if youíve been vacationing in Zimbabwe for the last week, you know that Roger Clemens is coming back -- this time for the Yankees. Clemens is obviously still a heck of a pitcher and should be picked up in any league heís available in. (I tried to get him in an AL-only Yahoo! league, but missed out due to waiver priority. Damn!)

However, while Clemens will help any fantasy team, expecting him to be your savior would be a little bit much. We need to temper our expectations a tad.

My first semi-concern about Clemens is how the change in leagues will affect him. Going from the National League to the American is not easy.

Want proof? OK. Clemens pitched for the Yankees from 1999 through 2003. His ERA during those seasons: 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, 3.91. Then he went to the National League, pitching for the Astros from 2004 through 2006. His ERA in Houston: 2.98, 1.87, 2.30.

Take a look at those numbers again. Based on his history, if Clemens had returned to Houston, expecting an ERA around 2.00 would not be ridiculous. However, with the Yankees, perhaps we should expect an ERA around 4.00. Thatís not bad these days, but obviously 4.00 isnít 2.00. Itís not the stuff of a fantasy savior.

Another worry about Clemens is that thereís actually been some skills erosion here, but itís been masked by the change in leagues.

Letís look at Clemensí dominance, for instance. Over his last three years in New York, Clemens had an 8.75 K/9. Then he went to the NL, and I would think his strikeout rate would go up. After all, he gets an easy K or two each time through most National League lineups, unlike in the AL. But the Rocketís K/9 during his Houston career was 8.43 -- it actually went down a little. The competition was easier, but Clemens was the same, if not a bit worse. Has his stuff slipped?

A similar phenomenon occurred in Clemensí strikeout-to-walk ratio and ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. He stayed consistent from the AL to the NL, but you look for a pitcher to do better in the NL, not stay the same. Consistency in this case may be masking skills erosion.

Another worry about Clemens is his age: 44. I know heís a freak, but still Ö this guy turns 45 in August. We always need to be careful when projecting a pitcher his age.

Maybe Iím being nitpicky here. And Iím not saying Clemens wonít be good. Heck, Iíd take him on any of my teams right now. But my point is simply that you shouldnít expect the world here. If your pitching staff is in shambles, acquiring Clemens will help, but it isnít a cure-all.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 5/9/2007 2:26:00 PM

Comments (4)

The O-Zone: Will These New Kids Hang Tough?

A few new starting pitchers are being trotted out tonight. Any of these guys worth anything? Letís have a look-see.

JUSTIN GERMANO

If you need a starter, I think Germano is a decent addition to your team for a couple of weeks (assuming youíre in a deep league). That being said, his upside is very limited.

Why? He isnít dominant enough. Last year at Triple-A, Germano whiffed just 5.33 batters per nine innings. If thatís the best he can do in the bush leagues, how will he possibly be dominant enough to succeed in the big leagues?

Germanoís K/9 hasnít been any better this year, either. Despite his terrific 1.69 ERA in Portland, Germano is striking out just 5.62 batters per nine innings.

The nice thing about Germano, though, is that although his upside is limited, his downside is, too. Germano doesnít walk many (24 BB in 155 1/3 IP at Triple-A last year), and he keeps the ball in the yard (13 homers allowed last year, none this year). Heís unlikely to put up a horrific outing where he floods the bags with baserunners and gives up more homers than Chase Wright.

If you need a short-term fill-in who wonít hurt you, Germano is a good bet. Just donít expect him to actually *help* you.

ANTHONY LEREW

Lerew, who pitches against Germano tonight, is kind of the anti-Germano: Heís shown a decent strikeout rate in the past, but control and gopheritis problems could prove to be his undoing.

Letís start with the good news: Lerew has pretty good stuff. Last year at Double-A, he whiffed 6.84 batters per nine innings Ö then got promoted to Triple-A, where he fanned 8.75 per nine innings. Both strikeout rates occurred in small sample sizes, but theyíre still encouraging -- especially that Triple-A mark. If Lerewís 8.75 K/9 is the real deal, he should be dominant enough to succeed in the majors.

But will he do anything else well enough to succeed in the majors? Thatís my worry. Lerew gave up a whopping 12 home runs in 71 Triple-A innings last year, so we have to be concerned about gopheritis. Control is a worry as well: Lerew walked 4.56 batters per nine innings during last seasonís Triple-A stint. He was wilder than a room full of first-graders with a substitute teacher.

Iíd stay away unless youíre really, really desperate. Too much downside here.

BRAD THOMPSON

When I started my Thompson research, the first thing I saw was his Triple-A numbers from last year: 33/6 K/BB in 42 2/3 innings, 2.11 ERA. Pretty good skill here, I thought.

But then I looked at his big-league numbers. Letís just say Iím staying far away from this guy for a while.

This year, Thompson has a 4.67 ERA (pitching in relief), and his 10/8 K/BB in 17 1/3 innings inspires no confidence. His previous big-league stints arenít much better. A 32/20 K/BB in 56 2/3 innings in 2006 Ö yuck. Neither the dominance nor the control are OK.

Combine that problematic skill set with workload concerns, and you have reason to worry. Moving from the bullpen to the rotation suits some guys fine -- look at Thompsonís teammate Braden Looper -- but the potential for ineffectiveness and/or injury is always present when someone moves from one-inning stints to six-inning stints.

Thompson could be a decent option someday, but someday is not today. Nor will it be this year.

Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 5/8/2007 2:33:00 PM

Comments (3)

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12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006