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Mets Lineup
So, I went to the Mets game and got into an argument with a Mets fan today about their lineup. I love Willie Randolph and his aggressive style, but I still don't think he's getting maximum utility out of his players. Yes, Lo Duca is a nice contact hitter who is willing to sacrifice for the team and move runners along, but that's not enough to warrant a spot in the 2-hole. Beltran is not a number 3 hitter, especially not on this team. David Wright is the best hitter and he should be getting extra at-bats in the 3-hole. He hits for average, power, and does it with men on base. It's time to put him where he belongs. Additionally, Beltran should be in the 2-hole where he can utilize both his speed as well as his power. While he's a sub-.300 guy throughout his career, he makes enough contact and has enough speed to be a two-hole hitter. He doesn't have the plate discipline to hit third, nor the power to hit later on. The lineup should be: Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Delgado, Floyd (when healthy), Lo Duca, Nady/Milledge, Valentin, and the Pitcher. Although this disturbs the right/left set up that Randolph has, it better utilizes the players' talents.

Even though Lo Duca gets on at a rate comprable to Beltran, he doesn't present a threat on the base-paths. If Beltran hit second, he would put more pressure on opposing pitchers with his running game and they'd be staring at David Wright as well. Wright needs more at-bats and he's a superior hitter all-around to beltran. Delgado would remain in the clean-up spot and Floyd could step in and provide protection for Delgado. The other fan I talked to put a premium on protecting Delgado with Wright, but it should be the other way around. Wright is the better hitter and Floyd is no bum. He provides sufficient protection and movind Lo Duca down gets your best players more at-bats, while also giving you more options at the top of the order (i.e. hit and run, steal, can score from first/second, etc). I know people may feel that Beltran has too much power to hit second, but I don't feel that is a good reason to stick Lo Duca at the top and make it easier for the opposing team by giving an inferior player extra at-bats.

I know they've already won 40 games, but it doesn't mean the Mets can't do better. They have an amazing lineup that has yet to be cast correctly.

Posted by Eddie Huang at 6/16/2006 11:16:00 PM

Comments (0)

Ichiro Behind the Numbers
The Seattle Times today credits Ichiro Suzuki's success this year to taking more first pitches. That isn't quite right. Ichiro is taking more first pitches this year, but he looked at a career-high first pitches last season and had nearly 40 less first-pitch hits than he did in 2004. So, his first-pitch take percentage is not the determining factor.

The table below shows Ichiro's first-pitch trends. In 2005, his first-pitch hit rate was about 20 points off his previous norm. This year, he's back on it, but because he is taking more pitches, he is going to have fewer first-pitch hits. He's making up for it later in the count, though, as he is on pace for 254 hits.

YEAR	HITS	*HITS	*TAKE %	  *% Swings  *HIT RATE
in Play

2006 254** 28** 85.2 56.8 39.1
2005 206 13 79.8 44.8 20.0
2004 262 52 74.1 59.0 44.6
2003 212 39 74.8 56.3 36.3
2002 208 39 77.7 58.8 39.3
2001 242 42 79.2 62.9 43.0

*First Pitch
**Projected



Posted by Jason Thornbury at 6/13/2006 2:24:00 PM

Comments (1)

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