| MLB Notes |
The King is back. Felix Hernandez’s eight shutout innings Thursday has to be taken with a big grain of salt considering Jeff Weaver tossed a complete game shutout against the lifeless Bucs just one day earlier, but Hernandez was impressive nevertheless. His fastball was 2-3 mph faster than his previous outings (reaching 97-98), and his curveball had more bite to it. Heavily criticized recently for throwing fastballs exclusively in the early innings, Hernandez didn’t change that game plan much, but it didn’t matter with the added zip and extra movement. He could still improve on location, but things do look to be moving in the right direction. Finally.
Death. Taxes. Rocco Baldelli hurting his hamstring. Things that are more durable than Baldelli’s hamstring: paper-mache, my 94-year-old grandma’s artificial hip and Mr. Glass from “Unbreakable.” Mark Prior thinks Baldelli is brittle.
Nomar Garciaparra is on pace for two homers and 86 RBI this season. The last time a similar feat occurred was in 1951. The .57 Isolated Power is eye-poppingly bad.
Well, at least Barry Zito is durable. Signed to the richest contract a pitcher has ever received, Zito hasn’t just been bad, he’s been brutal. Admittedly, he’s a notorious slow starter, and his schedule has been difficult, but the 54:41 K:BB ratio is just plain unacceptable. What would his 4.84 ERA look like if he wasn’t limiting opponents to a .280 BABIP? Imagine if he wasn’t pitching in the NL West and calling AT&T Park home. His fastball is literally, on average, the slowest in MLB.
On the other hand, there’s Gil Meche. Signed to a $55 million deal that was universally panned – including myself – Meche is looking like an absolute bargain right now. He’s never thrown 190 innings in a season, so he does make a good sell-high guy, but it’s doubtful many of your leaguemates believe in the turnaround, and KC’s offense really hurts his chances at wins. He’s also pitched a fairly easy schedule. Still, Meche has always had plus stuff, and he’s exhibited marked improvement in all the important component areas. He’s drastically improved his control, sports a solid K rate and is inducing more groundballs. I’m not sure what’s more unlikely, Meche living up to the rich contract, or Mark Philippoussis picking a “cougar” on the even-worse-than-you-expected “Age of Love.”
Did Miguel Tejada really just bat second and bunt to keep his consecutive games played streak alive? He does realize that he plays for the Baltimore Orioles, right? Hey, by all accounts, he’s a tough guy, and I’m for him playing through pain, but it’s going to be interesting to see how much playing shortstop with a fractured wrist helps the team.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/22/2007 10:54:00 AM |
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| MLB Notes |
It’s tough not to be critical of Toronto’s handling of pitchers right now. First, there was the J.P. Riccardi/B.J. Ryan fiasco, and now with A.J. Burnett. One of the more injury-prone pitchers over the last decade, Burnett was left in to throw 125, 117 and 130 pitchers over the final three games before departing his last start with shoulder pain. Then, instead of immediately placing him on the DL as a precaution, Burnett suffers a setback while throwing a side session.
Meet Anthony Reyes, quadruple-A All-Star. He can succeed in the minors until he’s blue in the face, but until that translates to the big leagues, I’m done preaching him as a buy-low guy. Like Javier Vazquez and David Bush before him, the peripherals simply don’t match up with his ERA. Three-run homers tend to do that. His .54 strand rate is by far the worst in major league baseball. He simply needs to learn how to pitch out of the stretch.
Brad Penny has allowed one run or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts. Ironically, his 6.08 K/9 IP is the lowest mark since his rookie season. He has the second best strand rate (.81) and HR/ 9 IP (.18) marks in the game, so he has been experiencing some luck. Still, the fact he’s transformed into a groundball pitcher (1.56 G/F) is a big reason for his success. He’s faded badly during recent second halves, so he’s a pretty good sell-high guy, but the skills have always been there for Penny to turn in a Cy Young caliber type season.
Yovani Gallardo’s first major league start was better than the box score indicated. After all, one of his earned runs scored from first base after he left the game. His fastball was real solid (94-95 mph) and his changeup was a huge discrepancy, often coming in 15 mph slower. Opportunity to remain in the rotation remains a question mark, but with a very good offense and bullpen behind him, Gallardo could prove to be a fantasy force from here on out. Just because Homer Bailey and Tim Lincecum haven’t lived up the hype so far doesn’t mean Gallardo won’t.
I’m liking Kevin Slowey’s prospects less and less. The great command should eventually lead to a solid WHIP, but because he’s always around the strike zone, he’s going to be eminently hittable with a fastball topping out at 89 mph. Home runs allowed figure to remain a problem.
An interesting, alternative look at BABIP.
I had the craziest dream last night where the Sacramento Kings hired Reggie Theus as head coach. You know, the guy from that terrible Saturday-morning show “Hang Time?” Wait a minute, that really happened? What, Mr. Belding was unavailable?
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/20/2007 10:34:00 AM |
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| MLB Notes |
Rafael Furcal has been one of the bigger busts in fantasy baseball so far. Maybe the knee problem is to blame, but not only does Furcal have just seven steals on the season, he also didn’t hit his first home run until Sunday. The contact rate is actually a career-best, so expect at least a modest bounce back over the rest of the season.
Improbably, Paul Byrd leads all of baseball with a sparkling 10.5:1 K:BB ratio. In fact, the next closest (C.C. Sabathia 6:1) isn’t even all that close. However, this is one peripheral that can pretty much be ignored, as Byrd’s 4.81 ERA is a better indication of how he’s pitched. The league-leading .49 BB/9 IP is nice and all, but he’s also allowed 1.48 HR/9 IP and sports a low strikeout rate.
I’m more than a little worried about Jason Schmidt. At this point, any surgery that won’t hurt his 2008 outlook has to be considered a best-case scenario. A two-pitch pitcher, Schmidt was able to compensate for a loss in velocity during his last two years in SF because of his tremendous changeup, but a fastball that currently tops out at 85 mph is simply too much of a drop off. His changeup was frequently thrown at 91-92 mph during his peak 2002-2004 seasons.
Regarding Schmidt’s replacement in LA’s rotation, it seems like a no-brainer that Chad Billingsley should be the choice. Sure, he needs to be stretched out, but with a 26:6 K:BB ratio, 1.28 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last 21.1 innings, it’s time to see what Billingsley can do as a starter.
It’s clear Carlos Beltran’s quad injury is bothering him more than the Mets have been letting on. A consensus top-15 fantasy pick entering the year, Beltran is batting just .204 over the last six weeks. In June, he has just one extra-base hit and a 10:1 K:BB ratio.
Kei Igawa may have some use in fantasy leagues after all. After rediscovering his changeup in Triple-A, he posted a 1.80 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 20 innings this month. He probably won’t be all that helpful in ERA or WHIP, but run support should be on his side. His first start back against the Giants this Friday is a favorable one.
After mono essentially ruined his season last year, Casey Kotchman is quietly having one of the better seasons in the game in 2007. He has a .333/.411/.556 line with a remarkable 16:24 K:BB ratio. Hopefully his recent concussion doesn’t prove to be too serious, because a run at the batting crown isn’t out of the question.
Welcome back, Jonny Gomes. With Elijah Dukes on pace to father 44 children by the time he’s 60, Gomes may finally be given another chance with the organization. Remember, Gomes had a 1.185 OPS and 11 homers last April before a shoulder injury derailed his season. While his swing is too long to result in a BA much better than .260, his power could make him a fantasy asset immediately, regardless of Rocco Baldelli’s impending return. Besides, you’d have a better chance of hearing Dane Cook tell a funny joke than Baldelli’s hamstring holding up over the rest of the season.
There isn’t a hotter player in baseball right now than Corey Hart. In 59 June at-bats, he has a 1.058 OPS, six homers and six steals. Folks, that’s a 65/65 pace for the season. All right, maybe that’s unsustainable, but Hart has clearly forced the Brewers’ hand to finally make him a regular, and if he holds onto the leadoff spot after Rickie Weeks’ return, expect him to continue to run wild. He has the upside of a top-20 fantasy outfielder from here on out.
Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/18/2007 11:31:00 AM |
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